U.S. Indices closed firmer on Wednesday heading into Thanksgiving with outperformance in the Russell and the Nasdaq, alongside broad-based gains. Technology was one of the clear outperformers, but Communications lagged with AI names trading higher after recent pressure, although Alphabet (GOOGL) gave up some of its recent rally, weighing on the comms sector. There were several macro highlights on Wednesday, US data was mixed with low Initial Jobless Claims easing labour market concerns, and Durable Goods beat expectations, but the Chicago PMI saw a notable slump. The Jobless Claims and Durable Goods data weighed on T-Notes, but the move had pared into the settlement, perhaps supported by the weak Chicago PMI or simply profit taking heading into Thanksgiving. In the UK, the budget resulted in choppy trade within UK assets, but ultimately the rise in fiscal headroom eased concerns with Gilts and Sterling ultimately moving higher. Meanwhile, oil prices were bid with focus remaining on Russia/Ukraine peace efforts. There was optimism overnight after Trump said they are making progress and Ukraine is happy, but that optimism faded after Russian officials urged not to make premature conclusions on the matter, and that there are no concessions from Russia on key issues on Ukraine settlement. Within FX, the Dollar was lower in risk on trade while the New Zealand Dollar outperformed after the RBNZ cut rates by 25bps as expected but OCR projections saw rates unchanged throughout the next year, supporting the NZD. The Australian Dollar was also buoyed by hot Australian CPI, with the strong risk tone also aiding the strength. Sterling was firmer versus the Dollar and Euro after the budget, while the Japanese Yen ultimately lagged despite overnight strength following source reports from Reuters. It was said that the BoJ is preparing markets for a possible hike as soon as December with a tweak to communication, although it is a close call on whether to hold off until January. Note, US markets are closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, with an early close on Friday, with trade expected to be quiet. Initial Jobless Claims fell further in the week ending 22nd November to 216k from 220k, despite expectations of a rise to 225k. This was the joint lowest claims print since the 215k on the February 8th week (matched the 216k on the April 12th week). Meanwhile, the four-week average dipped to 223.75k from 224.75k. The continued claims, for the week ending November 15th, rose to 1.96 million from 1.953 million, showing that those out of work are struggling to find jobs. The four-week average is at 1,956k, the highest since 5th July 2025. Oxford Economics are watching the data closely for signs recent layoffs are translating into significant job losses, but it notes the evidence is not there yet. It also notes that “There are some signs of softening in various private sector metrics, but that’s not the signal coming from the jobless claims data”. September Durable Goods rose 0.5%, slowing from the prior 2.9% increase but still above the 0.3% forecast. Ex-transport rose 0.6%, above the 0.2% forecast and accelerating from the prior 0.3%. Ex-defense rose 0.1% vs. prior 1.9%. The Nondefense capital goods ex aircraft orders rose 0.9%, up from the 0.4% prior and 0.2% forecasts. Summarising the data, Pantheon Macroeconomics notes that the numbers are stale given the delayed release on account of the government shutdown but notes it hints a slight improvement vs the earlier trend. After the data, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate was lowered to 3.9% from 4.0% for Q3 25. Q3 25 GDP data has been delayed to December 23rd. Elsewhere, both Oil and Gold were firm on Wednesday, closing higher by 1% and 0.8% respectively.
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