U.S. Indices closed firmer on Wednesday heading into Thanksgiving with outperformance in the Russell and the Nasdaq, alongside broad-based gains. Technology was one of the clear outperformers, but Communications lagged with AI names trading higher after recent pressure, although Alphabet (GOOGL) gave up some of its recent rally, weighing on the comms sector. There were several macro highlights on Wednesday, US data was mixed with low Initial Jobless Claims easing labour market concerns, and Durable Goods beat expectations, but the Chicago PMI saw a notable slump. The Jobless Claims and Durable Goods data weighed on T-Notes, but the move had pared into the settlement, perhaps supported by the weak Chicago PMI or simply profit taking heading into Thanksgiving. In the UK, the budget resulted in choppy trade within UK assets, but ultimately the rise in fiscal headroom eased concerns with Gilts and Sterling ultimately moving higher. Meanwhile, oil prices were bid with focus remaining on Russia/Ukraine peace efforts. There was optimism overnight after Trump said they are making progress and Ukraine is happy, but that optimism faded after Russian officials urged not to make premature conclusions on the matter, and that there are no concessions from Russia on key issues on Ukraine settlement. Within FX, the Dollar was lower in risk on trade while the New Zealand Dollar outperformed after the RBNZ cut rates by 25bps as expected but OCR projections saw rates unchanged throughout the next year, supporting the NZD. The Australian Dollar was also buoyed by hot Australian CPI, with the strong risk tone also aiding the strength. Sterling was firmer versus the Dollar and Euro after the budget, while the Japanese Yen ultimately lagged despite overnight strength following source reports from Reuters. It was said that the BoJ is preparing markets for a possible hike as soon as December with a tweak to communication, although it is a close call on whether to hold off until January. Note, US markets are closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, with an early close on Friday, with trade expected to be quiet. Initial Jobless Claims fell further in the week ending 22nd November to 216k from 220k, despite expectations of a rise to 225k. This was the joint lowest claims print since the 215k on the February 8th week (matched the 216k on the April 12th week). Meanwhile, the four-week average dipped to 223.75k from 224.75k. The continued claims, for the week ending November 15th, rose to 1.96 million from 1.953 million, showing that those out of work are struggling to find jobs. The four-week average is at 1,956k, the highest since 5th July 2025. Oxford Economics are watching the data closely for signs recent layoffs are translating into significant job losses, but it notes the evidence is not there yet. It also notes that “There are some signs of softening in various private sector metrics, but that’s not the signal coming from the jobless claims data”. September Durable Goods rose 0.5%, slowing from the prior 2.9% increase but still above the 0.3% forecast. Ex-transport rose 0.6%, above the 0.2% forecast and accelerating from the prior 0.3%. Ex-defense rose 0.1% vs. prior 1.9%. The Nondefense capital goods ex aircraft orders rose 0.9%, up from the 0.4% prior and 0.2% forecasts. Summarising the data, Pantheon Macroeconomics notes that the numbers are stale given the delayed release on account of the government shutdown but notes it hints a slight improvement vs the earlier trend. After the data, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate was lowered to 3.9% from 4.0% for Q3 25. Q3 25 GDP data has been delayed to December 23rd. Elsewhere, both Oil and Gold were firm on Wednesday, closing higher by 1% and 0.8% respectively.
To mark my 3275th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 160 points yesterday and is now ahead by 4542 points for November, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.69% higher at a price of 6812.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 314 points higher for a 0.67% gain at a price of 47,427.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.87% higher at a price of 25,236.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.09% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 1.1% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1.85% higher at a price of 49,559.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.07% lower.
The Euro closed 0.19% higher at $1.1592.
The British Pound closed 0.31% higher at $1.3234.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.33% closing at $156.48
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 7 basis points lower at 4.43%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points lower at 2.66%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points lower at 3.99%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.07% higher at $58.57 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.81% higher at $4165.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German GFK Consumer Climate Report at 7.00 am. Next, we have Euro-Zone Money Supply at 9.00 am and Consumer Confidence at 10.00 am. Finally, we have the Minutes from the last ECB Meeting at 12.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well as yesterday morning the market rallied to my 6790 sell level before trading lower to my revised 6774 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members. Subsequently, I went short the S&P again at an average rate of 6810 with a 6792 T/P level I will have no stop on this position. The S&P is overbought after rising a huge 320 Handles off last Friday’s 6507 low print. There is no doubt trading is challenging when you have the S&P at less than 2% from all-time highs yet we still have fear in the market while so many technical signals are oversold. The world and his mother are now looking for the S&P to surge into year-end fuelled by expectations that the Fed will cut rates next month. In my view the economy is fragile against a backdrop of extremely over valued equity markets that is not sustainable in the long-run. I am now happy to start selling rallies having been a buyer for most of the past three weeks. If these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.1440/1.1510 with the same 1.1375 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1570.
Dollar Index
I am still flat. Today, I will leave my Dollar buy level unchanged at 98.50/99.30 with the same 97.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 99.90.
Russell 2000
Late in Wednesday’s session the Russell rallied to my 2500 sell level. I am still short with the same 2450 T/P level. I will add to this position at 2560 while leaving my 2605 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
The FTSE never came close to yesterday’s buy range as the U.K. Budget was well received by the markets helping the Pound to trade higher and borrowing costs to fall. I am still reluctant to chase the FTSE higher given how overvalued this market is currently. Therefore, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 9480/9550 with the same 9415 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 9610. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow never came close to Wednesday’s buy range, and I am still flat. Today, I will raise my buy level to 46650/46950 with a higher 46395 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 47230. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX closed over 1% higher on Wednesday. This move higher saw the whole of my sell range triggered for a now 25230 average short position. I will leave my 25455 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while raising my T/P level 25155. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
No Change: The Bund has literally not moved more than 60 points in a daily session over the past two months. I am still long the Bund at an average rate of 129.50 with the same 129.80 T/P level. Meanwhile, I will leave my 128.35 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. I have no interest in chasing the price of Gold higher as I continue to be a buyer from 4010/4030 with the same 3988 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4064.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat as Silver rallied to close over 3.5% higher. I am reluctant to chase the market higher especially as Silver is close to all-time highs and could easily register a Double Top. Silver has short-term support from 50.00/51.00. I will now raise my buy level to this area with a higher 48.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 52.30.
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