U.S. Equity Markets ultimately finished the Wednesday session with slight gains as European weakness was offset once US trade got underway, while a last-minute market rally extended the equity gains. However, the breadth was weak with the majority of sectors in the red while the equal weighted S&P was also lower. The upside was led by gains in the Consumer Discretionary Sector, thanks to outperformance in both Tesla (TSLA) and Amazon (AMZN) with the former buoyed by a Buy initiation at Stifel while Amazon (AMZN) managed to top USD 2 trillion market cap. Bonds were lower across the curve facing pressure from global peers after hot Australian CPI with European bonds also lower on French election jitters. Further bond weakness was seen as Japan’s top currency diplomat Kanda started speaking, expressing concern around the rapid decline of the Japanese Yen recently; which only briefly gave some respite for the Yen. The Yen was a lagging currency on Wednesday with USD/JPY hitting a 38 year high, rising to a peak of 160.85 with participants cautious of upcoming intervention. The Dollar saw notable upside on Euro and Yen weakness, while the upside in US yields was also supportive. The US highlights saw weak New Home Sales data, while Fed Speak saw Bowman reiterate hawkish remarks. Meanwhile, FedEx (FDX) earnings were very strong, seeing the stock close +15%. Attention turns to US Bank Stress tests and Micron (MU) earnings after hours, while Core PCE will be the highlight of the week. New home sales plunged 11.3% in May to 619k well beneath the expected 640k, and the prior, which was revised much higher, to 698k from 634k. Meanwhile, new home supply soared to 9.3 months’ worth, from the previous 8.1 months. Akin to some of the other housing data in May, such as housing starts and existing home sales, new-home sales surprised to the downside, while Oxford Economics notes the upward revisions to last month’s readings took some of the sting out of the poor May metrics, although sales for Q2 are tracking below Oxford’s estimate, raising the odds that the consultancy will make a downward revision to its forecast for Q2 residential investment. Further, the consultancy believes the headline may remain tepid next quarter (Q3) but expect sales to pick up in Q4 after Fed rate cuts get underway. In comparison to existing home sales, new home sales should continue to benefit from more supply and homebuilder incentives. Elsewhere, Oil closed flat while a stronger Dollar saw Gold end Wednesday with a loss of 0.6%.
To mark my 3000th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat yesterday and is still ahead by 1910 points for June, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.16% higher at a price of 5478.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 15 points higher for a 0.04% gain at a price of 39,127.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.25% higher at a price of 19,751.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.56% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1.26% higher at a price of 39,667.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.46% higher.
The Euro closed 0.3% lower at $1.0675.
The British Pound closed 0.4% lower at 1.2616.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.7% closing at $160.78.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 4 basis points higher 2.45%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 7 basis points higher at 4.14%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 6 basis points higher at 4.31%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.09% lower at $80.76 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.6% lower at $2299 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Money Supply at 9.00 am, followed by the Economic Sentiment Indicator and Consumer Confidence at 10.00 am. Next, we have the U.K. Financial Stability Report and Minutes at 10.30 am. This is followed by U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, GDP, Durable Goods Orders, Wholesale Inventories and the Trade Balance at 1.30 pm. At 3.00 pm we have Pending Home Sales. Finally, we have the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index at 4.00 pm and a 7-Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ all closed higher yesterday but the NYSE Advance/Decline ratio ended the session at a negative 0.80:1. The S&P closed higher by 9 Handles but only 35% of the stocks comprising the Index closed the session higher. As for the volume, 56.7% of NYSE volume occurred as down volume while 43.3% occurred as up volume. Yesterday’s rally was internally tame. This is not an easy week to trade with the key PCE Inflation data due tomorrow, coming on top of month and Quarter end while we have the rebalancing to add to the mix as well. Despite how overbought the S&P is trading at this time, I just cannot be short given how oversold the underlying market is as per my commentary during the week. The S&P just missed yesterday’s buy range and I am still flat. However, ahead of the key PCE data, I will not chase the market higher, leaving my 5428/5444 buy level unchanged with the same 5413 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 5459. I still do not want to be short the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
The Euro continued Tuesday’s sell-off hitting my buy range for a now 1.0680 long position. I will continue to look to add to this position on any further move lower to 1.0610 while leaving my 1.0555 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.0730. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
The strong Dollar saw the market hit my sell range for a now 106.05 short position. With Dollar/Yen close to 161 I cannot see the Bank of Japan continue to let the Yen weaken further from here without some sizeable intervention. I will add to this short Dollar position on any further rally to 106.65 while leaving my 107.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level to 105.60. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
I am still flat the DAX, reluctant to chase the market higher. Therefore, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 17900/17990 with the same 17795 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 18070.
Cash FTSE
Despite Sterling trading to a six-week low, the FTSE meandered in a narrow range over the past 24 hours. Today, I will again be a buyer on any further dip lower to 8100/8170 with the same 8045 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Dow Rolling Contract
Frustratingly the Dow just missed my second buy level at 38900 before rallying over 200 points off its 38912 low print. I am still long at 39180 from Tuesday. I will add to this position at a higher price of 38920 while leaving my 38795 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 39260. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
A late rally saw the NDX end Tuesday with a gain of 0.25%. I am still flat. The late across-the-board Index rally saw the VIX end Tuesday with a fall of 2.55%, closing at 12.55. It is amazing that despite the huge rotation over the past week that the VIX is still trading with a 12 Handle. I will now raise my NDX buy level to 19440/19590 with a higher 19355 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 19710. I still do not want to be short the NDX at this time.
September BUND
A late sell-off in the Bund saw the market hit my 132.00 buy level. I will add to this position at 131.40 while leaving my 130.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 132.50. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am glad that I did not chase the price of Gold higher given the further $30 fall over the past 24 hours. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 2269/2285 with a now lower 2255 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2302.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still long from Tuesday at a price of 28.90 with the same 29.50 T/P level. I will add to this position on any further move lower to 28.10 while leaving my 27.55 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Please Note: There will no Daily Commentary tomorrow. Any of my calls that are not hit today and are subsequently triggered on Friday will see me return with updated emails for my Platinum Members.
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