U.S. Equity Markets pushed higher on Wednesday with record highs being made once again in both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100. The NDX outperformed led by gains in big tech with Microsoft (MSFT) crossing the USD 3 trillion market cap and Meta (META) rising above USD 1trillion market cap, a fresh record high for both the tech behemoths. Treasuries meanwhile initially saw a gradual bid throughout the Asian and European sessions before peaking just before the stronger than expected US PMI data, weighing on the curve. T-Notes pushed to session lows in the US afternoon after a dismal 5yr auction which also marked the top for stocks with the rise in yields taking the Indices off highs to see the S&P close relatively flat but the NASDAQ was again green, closing at a new all-time high. Meanwhile the Russell 2000 and Dow Jones closed lower. Crude prices settled in the black on the collapse in US crude production within the inventory data due to the recent cold weather while ongoing geopolitical tensions were also supportive. In FX, the Dollar sold off but was off lows thanks to the strong PMI data and weak US Treasury Auction but the Canadian Dollar underperformed after a dovish Bank of Canada rate decision. The Chinese Yuan was flat vs. the softer Dollar but China stocks were supported once again after the PBoC announced a cut to its RRR, while regulators reportedly asked funds to restrict short selling in the stock index futures market. The overall tone of the Bank of Canada Interest Rate decision was dovish. The Central Bank left its interest rate unchanged at 5.00%, as was widely expected. The main tweak was the removal of the language that it is prepared to raise rates further if needed. However, within Governor Macklem’s speech he did suggest that the BoC has not ruled out further policy rate hikes, noting if new developments push inflation higher, the BoC may still need to hike, although stressed that this is not their base case. Macklem also noted that if the economy evolves broadly in line with their projections, he expects future discussions will be about how long the BoC maintains the policy rate at 5%. He also stated that the Governing Council’s discussion about future policy is shifting from whether monetary policy is restrictive enough, to how long to maintain the current restrictive stance. The dropped language and commentary from Macklem ‘’opens’’ the possibility that the BoC will be able to cut rates in 2024, albeit Macklem did not want to commit to any specific dates when easing might occur (analysts and markets look for either April or June for the first cut). Elsewhere, Oil closed 1.38% higher while Gold was soft, ending Wednesday with a loss of 0.90%
To mark my 2925th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 165 points yesterday and is now head by 2976 points for January. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.08% higher at a price of 4868.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 99 points lower for a 0.26% loss at a price of 37,806.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.55% higher at a price of 17,499.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.18% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 1.7% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.80% lower at a price of 36,226.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.32% lower.
The Euro closed 0.3% higher at $1.0882.
The British Pound closed 0.3% higher at 1.2720.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.6% closing at $147.57.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points lower at 2.34%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points higher at 4.01%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points higher 4.18%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.38% higher at $75.40 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.9% lower at $2013.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic front we have German IFO Survey at 9.00 am, followed at 1.15pm by the ECB Rate Announcement. Next, we have U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, GDP, Durable Goods Orders, Wholesale Inventories and the Trade Balance at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have ECB President Lagarde’s press conference at 1.45 pm.
Cash S&P 500
I have stated a number of times this month that the key to making money in 2024 is ”patience” given the number of negative divergences against Indexes that continue to rally in an unprecedented Vertical fashion. Microsoft and META hitting Market Caps of $ three trillion and $ one trillion respectively is insane as earnings certainly do not justify these valuations. One of the best signals that I use for trading markets is the RSI. This worked well as today as after the S&P hit my 4892 sell level we finally sold off in the last hour to my 4880 T/P level and I am now flat. A reversal like we saw today on the back of an awful 5-Year Treasury Auction signals trouble but as we have seen since October any reversal has been aggressively bought. After the close Tesla reported earnings which missed while warning of future growth. As I go to press the S&P is trading at 4872 while the RSI closed at 70. The S&P has resistance from 4887/4903 where I will again be a seller with a 4918 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will leave my 4823/4838 buy level unchanged for now with the same 4809 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
My latest 1.0875 average long Euro position worked well as the market rallied to my 1.0920 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.0780/1.0850 with a lower 1.0715 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar as the market again fell shy of yesterday’s buy range. The intra-day movements in the Dollar is non-existent which has been the theme for all of January so far. I will now lower my sell level to 103.80/104.50 with a lower 105.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
I am still flat the DAX as we wait for the ECB Rate announcement this afternoon. In my opinion the DAX is severely overbought but the bullish price action prevents me from been a seller. I do not have an edge in the DAX and I am going to wait to see how the DAX reacts following the ECB and Lagarde press conference this afternoon. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
I am still flat the FTSE as yet again the market only traded in a 40-point range yesterday. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 7400/7470 with the same 7335 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat the Dow as the market continues to find resistance above 38,000. Given the fact that the Dow could not make a new all-time high like both the S&P and NDX did yesterday I will now lower my Dow buy level to 37300/37550 with a lower 37155 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Despite my concern with the Dow reversal yesterday, I still do not want to be short the market at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX surged yesterday to yet another all-time high at a price of 17,667. This high coincided with an RSI reading of 79. This move higher saw my second sell level at 17600 triggered, for a now 17525 average short position. With the RSI closing above 75 I am happy to hold this position for now. I will leave my 17705 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged on this position while raising my T/P level to 17440. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March BUND
Unfortunately, the Bund missed yesterday’s 134.60 T/P level by a few points before selling off into the New York close (133.76). I am still long from Tuesday at 133.95 with a now lower 134.45 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position at 133.35 while leaving my 132.85 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat Gold. As I still long both the Euro and Silver, I will now lower my Gold buy level to 1873/1998 with a lower 1959 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I still believe in the bull case for this precious metal. I will continue to hold my 24.40 average long position with no stop or T/P level for now. This morning, Silver is trading slightly higher at a price of 22.70. I will look to add to my existing long position on any further move lower to 21.50. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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