U.S. Indexes closed in the red on Wednesday and saw some pressure in the US afternoon amid reports that the Trump administration is mulling export controls to China on goods made with or containing US software, although some of the move attempted to pare as digestion of the further details seemed less extreme. Nonetheless, risk-off trade resumed into the close. Sectors were mixed with Industrials and Consumer Discretionary residing as the laggards, and Energy outperforming, buoyed by gains in the crude complex. Before settlement, benchmarks were already boosted by bullish factors but notably extended on two reports: 1) Trump administration lifts key restriction on Ukraine’s use of Western long-range missiles, via the Wall Street Journal, and 2) Bessent said a substantial pick up in Russia sanctions is expected, and will be announced overnight or tomorrow. Back to stocks, there was a deluge of earnings with disappointing TXN and NFLX reports, the arguable highlights. The Dollar was choppy, but it was more or less flat at pixel time with the Canadian Dollar boosted by aforementioned oil prices, while Sterling was hit on a cooler-than-expected inflation print, which saw a markedly dovish move in Bank of England pricing. Spot gold tested USD 4000/oz to the downside, but has since rebounded, albeit remains lower on the session, with a lot of the areas in the market that have witnessed extreme upside (gold, nuclear power stocks, rare earths) coming under notable pressure this week. T-Notes settled flat in choppy trade with focus on US/China relations, with little move seen on a solid 20-year auction. Elsewhere, Oils urged closing higher by 3.5% while Gold ended Wednesday’s volatile session with a loss of 0.5%
To mark my 3275th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was made 287 points yesterday and is now ahead by 4267 points for October after closing September with a gain of 3774 points after ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.53% lower at a price of 6699.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 334 points lower for a 0.71% loss at a price of 46,590.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.99% lower at a price of 24,879.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.21% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% lower.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.02% lower at a price of 49,307.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.13% lower.
The Euro closed 0.08% higher at $1.1609.
The British Pound closed 0.09% lower at $1.3360.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.03% closing at $151.94
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 6 basis points lower at 4.42%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points higher at 2.56%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points lower at 3.95%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.77% higher at $59.40 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.51% lower at $4101.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the U.K. or the Euro-Zone. At 1.30 pm we have U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Finally, we have Existing Home Sales and Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence at 3.00 pm. Please remember that despite the U.S. Government Shutdown CPI will be released at 1.30 pm tomorrow.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P 500 slid intraday, filling the gap created from Friday by Monday’s rally, as outlined earlier this week. I do not have a strong conviction about what happens today as the buy the dip as shown by the last 90 minutes of trading was strong — the index could realistically move in either direction. However, it does appear that the S&P 500 is now forming a potential double-top pattern, with the neckline around 6,550. If we are putting in some kind of topping pattern, where a steeper decline may be setting up, it is not unusual to see this type of churning action near the highs. In fact, we observed similar behavior in 2021 and early 2022, as well as in January and February 2025, both of which were accompanied by bearish divergence on the Daily RSI. So, it does not look all that dissimilar. If we are to believe the 1966 analog, the same thing happened back then, too, with a similar topping pattern and formation. So, technically, one could argue that from the market’s current position, there is a good opportunity for a larger pullback to develop. The only counter to this argument is the fact that technically so many signals are over sold while the Fear & Greed Index closed at 26 last night with the S&P less than 0.75% from all-time highs which makes no sense. Today marks another $23 billion Treasury settlement date, with an additional $26 billion set to settle next Tuesday. The point is that this process is going to continue for a while. When we have Treasury settlement dates, we tend to see usage at the Standing Repo Facility increase — $3 billion was used at the SRF on Tuesday’s settlement date. Funding rates did not see much relief on Wednesday, and they probably won’t see any today either. I would expect them to trade higher. Liquidity is tight and will likely remain that way as long as the Treasury continues issuing debt and the Fed keeps contracting its balance sheet. Still, as long as conditions remain manageable and the SRF is being used, I do not see a reason for the Fed to end QT in October — though I could see it wrapping up by December. After the close Tesla reported results. I do not follow the company as closely as I used to when I owned it a few years back, but earnings were weak while revenue was strong, suggesting a margin problem somewhere in those numbers. In any case, the options positioning was so bullish that it is actually bearish. The key level to watch is $420 — if Tesla breaks below that, it could face a significant drop. My guess is the market is waiting for the conference call to conclude before making up its mind. Netflix broke below its descending triangle pattern, and if you project the roughly $200 drop from the peak by another $200 from the point of the breakdown, that would put the stock in the low $900s. – UGLY. Wednesday’s rebound saw the 20 Day Moving Average at 6670 hold. The initial sell-off saw the S&P hit my revised 6708 T/P level on my latest 6719 average short position and I am now flat. The S&P has initial support from 6630/6650 where I will be a buyer with a 6615 ‘Closing Stop’. I will continue to be a seller of rallies despite the number of oversold technical signals. Today, my sell level will be from 6755/6775 with a higher 6791 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 6675. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6731. If these views change I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still flat as the Euro traded in a narrow range on Wednesday. Today, I will continue to be a seller from 1.1660/1.1730 with the same 1.1795 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1600
Dollar Index
No Change: I am still long the Dollar at 98.70 with the same 99.25 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position at 98.00 while leaving my 97.25 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members
Russell 2000
My latest 2495 short Russell position worked well as the market traded lower to my 2460 T/P level yesterday and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 2485/2555 with the same 2605 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2445.
FTSE 100
Much weaker than expected inflation data for the U.K. saw the FTSE trade back above 9500. This move higher has me short at a price of 9510. I will add to this position at 9580 while raising my ‘Closing Stop’ to 9635. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 9450. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
Overnight the Dow finally hit my buy range for a 46430 long position. With the Dow trading at 46500 as I go to post I have decided to exit this long position here and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any further dip lower to 46050/46300 with a lower 45895 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 46520. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well but you had to be quick to take your gain before the market traded lower. After the NDX hit my 24900-buy level we saw a quick 130 point rebound. This move higher saw my revised 24972 T/P level triggered as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. With so many technical signals oversold I am finding it hard not to be a buyer of dips despite how close the Index is trading to all-time highs. The NDX has support below from 24500/24680 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 24295 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 24840.
December BUND
No Change: I am still flat. I will leave my buy level unchanged at 129.30/130.10 with a the same 128.55 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 130.70.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold prices fell by a further 2.5% yesterday for a $365 fall in two days before rallying 2% off its afternoon low into the New York close. In Dollar terms this is the largest two-day fall in history leaving a lot of recent buyers trapped long. I am still flat. Given the losses incurred in Gold these past few weeks I am going to stay flat Gold until I get a better edge in the market.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still long at an average rate of 49.20 with the same 47.15 ‘Closing Stop’. I will also leave my 49.80 T/P level unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Please Note: Due to the Irish Bank Holiday on Monday my next Daily Commentary will be published on Tuesday October 28. Any of my calls that are not hit today and are subsequently triggered on either Friday or Monday will see me return with updated emails for my Platinum Members.
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