U.S. Equity Markets closed higher in a quiet Market ahead of today’s Thanksgiving Holiday. In a lacklustre session, the Dow led Wednesday’s gains, closing 0.53% higher. The main highlight from yesterday’s trading was the noticeable in Jobless Claims which printed 209K versus 226K expected. Meanwhile Continuing Claims fell for the first time since September. This move higher saw the Dollar rise, closing above 104. The Euro fell amid the firmer greenback which saw the single currency approach the 1.0850 level where support held, while there was a lot of attention on Germany after the government cancelled the talks on the 2024 budget and it was also suggested that a decision on the 2024 budget would no longer be possible before year-end. The Japanese Yen underperformed with USD/JPY back at the 149.00 handle heading into Asia trade where thinner volumes are anticipated owing to the holiday closure in the US for Thanksgiving Day and with Japanese markets also closed for Labour Thanksgiving Day. Elsewhere, Oil fell 0.45% while a stronger Dollar saw Gold end Wednesday with a small 0.6% loss.
To mark my 2900th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 180 points yesterday and is now ahead by 765 points for November. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.41% higher at a price of 4556.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 184 points higher for a 0.53% gain at a price of 35,273.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.41% higher at a price of 16,001.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.30% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.2% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.29% higher at a price of 33,451.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.31% higher.
The Euro closed 0.2% lower at $1.0885.
The British Pound closed 0.3% lower at 1.2491.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.9% closing at $149.51.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points lower at 2.56%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points higher at 4.16%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points higher at 4.41%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.45% lower at $76.75 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.6% lower at $1990.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German, Euro-Zone and U.K. Services PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. The only other data of note is the ECB Minutes from their last Meeting at 12.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P made a new recovery high at 4568 before having a small sell-off into the close. I did some more research on the key $BPSPX RSI. Last night the 14-Day RSI closed at 81.70. In the last 6.5 years there have only been four times when we have seen readings with an 80 Handle. I just cannot be a buyer against this background especially as the $NYSI is now maximum overbought. The Daily 5 EMA is the most common and frequent Moving Average as it tracks a very short time frame by definition. To see it not reconnect for the last eight trading sessions is extremely unusual. We have only seen two 5 EMA reconnects in 16 trading days. I cannot recall ever seeing this before. In my opinion the market is now becoming unbalanced again and disconnected from its standard functioning which involves 5 EMA reconnects on a regular basis. Volatility remains compressed as shown by the VIX which fell a further 3.75% yesterday to close near the lows for the year at a price of 12.85. The VIX has now got six ‘’Open Gaps’’ above. All VIX gaps get filled meaning sooner rather than later we should have a decent correction. Unfortunately, the S&P just missing Tuesday’s 4524 T/P level hurt as I was stopped out of my latest 4533 average short position at 4551. This morning as I go to press, I have sold the S&P here at 4558. The S&P has an ‘’Open Gap’’ from earlier this year at 4576. I will add to this position at this price level with a now wider 4591 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will have a T/P level at 4541 on my new 4558 short position. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still flat the Euro as the market never came close to yesterday’s sell range before closing below 1.09. The Euro has support from 1.0790/1.0850 where I will be a buyer with a 1.0735 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will continue to look to be a seller of rallies. The Euro has resistance from 1.0980/1.1050 where I will be a seller with a higher 1.1105 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
September Dollar Index
The Dollar had a small rally yesterday, closing above 104 and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 102.90/103.50 with a higher 102.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Dollar at this time.
Cash DAX
No Change. Incredible 1400-point rally in the DAX in three weeks. Thankfully we had no short position in this market. As I cannot buy the DAX at these levels, nor do I want to be short I am going to stay flat the DAX until I see a better risk/reward opportunity. Sometimes it is better to sit on your hands. I much prefer to be short the American Indexes given the liquidity. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
No Change. I am still a buyer on any further dip lower to 7340/7410 buy level with a now lower 7285 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow led yesterday’s gains higher. In the process the market hit my sell range and I am now short at 35280. I will add to this position at 35520 with the same tight 35705 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my T/P level to 35100. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX surged above 16100 yesterday before selling off 100 points into the close. This initial move higher has me short at 16020. I will add to this position at 16150. I will now raise my T/P level to 15900 while leaving my tight 16205 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged.
December BUND
I am still flat the Bund as the market never came close to yesterday’s buy range. I am reluctant to chase the Bund higher, leaving my 129.80/130.60 buy level unchanged with the same 128.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold again found aggressive selling above $2000 and I am still flat. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1960/1975 with the same 1949 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still long Silver from six weeks ago at 24.05. Silver continues to trade in narrow ranges much to my frustration. I still believe that it is only a matter of time before Silver catches an aggressive bid and I want to be long for this move. In a change of strategy, I will have no stop or no T/P level on this position. This morning Silver is trading lower at 23.65. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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