U.S. Equity Markets predominantly closed higher with the S&P 500 printing a fresh record high while T-notes saw gradual selling, more so in the belly. The upside in stocks was led by the NASDAQ 100 with Tech and Communication names the only sectors truly in the green with the upside in heavyweight stocks supporting the overall market. US President Trump unveiled project stargate, a USD 500 billion AI project which supported AI names like Nvidia (NVDA) while Oracle (ORCL) also surged due to its direct involvement with the project. Communication names were also supported by the stellar Netflix (NFLX) earnings report on Tuesday night. In FX, price action was rather mundane aside from the Japanese Yen, which saw notable weakness in the risk on trade with all eyes turning to the Bank of Japan tomorrow. The Canadian Dollar also softened with soft PPI adding to the soft CPI data ahead of the Bank of Canada Meeting next week. The Euro saw marginal selling in response to commentary from ECB President Lagarde ahead of the ECB blackout period from tomorrow, who suggested Trump’s presidency will not affect the ECB’s policy path as it currently stands. T-notes were weighed on amid a strong risk environment with upside in US equities while selling was observed ahead of the 20 Year Treasury Auction and amid the Saudi PIF launching a USD 4 billion 2-parter. The strong 20 Year offering put a floor in the selling with T-notes paring into settlement. Crude prices chopped to the Dollar and Trump tariff updates. On which, Trump said the EU treats the US badly and they will be in for tariffs, while the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump is pushing for early renegotiation of the US trade deal with Mexico and Canada. The US President also said they are talking about a 10% tariff on China, for sending them fentanyl. He also threatened Russia, noting if they do not agree to a deal soon regarding Ukraine, he will have to tariff, tax and implement sanctions on Russia. The US Treasury sold USD 13 billion of 20yr bonds with a high yield of 4.900%, stopping through the when issued by 1.1bps, a much better result than the prior tail of 1.5bps and vs a six auction average of a tail of 1.3bps. The bid-to-cover was also strong at 2.75x, above the prior 2.5x and average of 2.53x. The breakdown saw direct demand unchanged at 20.1% while indirect demand jumped back up to 69.5% from 62%, a touch above the six auction average. The rise in indirect demand saw dealers (forced surplus buyers) take just 10.4% of the offering, down from the prior 17.9% and average 15.3%. Elsewhere, Oil closed 0.4% lower, while Gold end Wednesday with a small gain of 0.3%.
To mark my 3125th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 45 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1994 points for January after closing December with a gain of 1997 points after closing November with a gain of 3049 points having finished October with a gain of 2179 points. September saw a gain of 4402 points following a 301-point loss for August after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.61% higher at a price of 6086.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 130 points higher for a 0.3% gain at a price of 44,156.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.33% higher at a price of 21,853.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.39% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.9% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1.58% higher at a price of 39,646.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.13% higher.
The Euro closed 0.05% lower at $1.0420.
The British Pound closed 0.17% lower at 1.2319.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.60% closing at $156.51.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points higher 2.53%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 4 basis points higher at 4.64%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points higher at 4.61%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.4% lower at $75.53 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.3% higher at $2755 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. CBI Industrial Trends at 11.00 am. Next, we have U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims at 1.30 pm followed by Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have the Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index at 3.30 pm and a speech from President Trump at 4.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
It is early days for the 2025 Administration, but nothing has changed. In the end anyone trying to short this market gets screwed and my ‘’Nothing Matters’’ theme continues. At least so far. Financial Conditions continue to ease thus underpinning the S&P. I still believe that we will have much larger drawdowns this year as valuations are sky high, optimism and positioning extremely bullish, technical tags remain outstanding such as the 200-Day Moving Average and so many large issues that have to be negotiated. No matter this still offers plenty of opportunity on the buy side but not now in my opinion. Internally yesterday was a horror show as despite the S&P making a new all-time high, the McClellan Oscillator saw a dramatic fall from Tuesday’s +227 print, closing at +151 last night. As a result the S&P closed with a large negative divergence. The late sell-off in the S&P could mean we have a ‘’Double Top’’ on the Daily Chart which we will only know after the fact. Meanwhile the VIX closed higher yesterday which should not be happening against this bullish backdrop. Remember a bullish VIX in a rising stock market is normally a strong sign for an imminent decline. Both the German DAX and U.K. FTSE closed well outside the top of their respective Bollinger Bands. Both of these countries do not show any signs of economic growth yet Index charts are at all-time highs. What does that tell you? It tells me that modern equity markets continue to operate in a world of their own disconnected from a fundamental reality, driven by liquidity, policy maker gaming and a general gamification of markets. It makes anyone with a traditional valuation sense cringe, but we got to trade the markets we have not the markets we want which brings me back to my old rule: ‘’That a market that cannot fall on bad news has to be respected’’. I cannot justify a buy setup until we get a decent correction first. Shortly after I posted yesterday morning the S&P traded higher to my second sell level at 6068 for a now 6058 average short position. Given the potential for a Double Top, I emailed my Platinum Members to raise their ‘’Closing Stop’ to a price of 6110. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 6044. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still flat the Euro as the market continues to build value above 1.0350. With the ECB expected to lower rates again next week it is difficult to chase the Euro higher given the yield differential. Therefore, I will continue to be a buyer from 1.0280/1.0360 with the same 1.0215 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.0420. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar as I continue to be a small seller on any further rally to 108.50/109.10 with the same 109.65 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 108.05.
Russell 2000
The Russell 200 continues to find strong resistance at its 50-Day Moving Average which comes in at price of 2300. Yesterday’s 0.65% fall was in contrast to the strength of the other main American Indexes. Ahead of Trump’s key speech this afternoon, I will now lower my Russell buy level to 2140/2220 with a lower 2075 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2260.
Cash FTSE
My latest 8570 short FTSE position worked well as the market eventually traded lower to my 8525 T/P level and I am now flat. With the FTSE continuing to trade outside the top of its Daily Bollinger Band, I will short rallies. Today, I will again be a seller from 8560/8630 with the same 8705 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 8510. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow never came close to yesterday’s buy range, and I am still flat. The Dow has now rallied over 2000 points since the low from last Monday week. This is another insane move that technically has produced a number of negative divergences. The Dow has resistance from 44400/44650 where I will be a small seller with a 44805 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The Dow has now recaptured its 50 Day Moving Average at 43575. This level will offer any support on any test. Therefore, I will be a small buyer of the Dow from 43540/43790 with a tight 43395 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 44210. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 44860.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX traded the whole of Wednesday’s sell range for a now 21810 average short position. I will now raise my ‘’Closing Stop’’ to a price of 22005. I will also raise my T/P level on this position to 21740. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March BUND
The Bund traded in a narrow 50-point range yesterday and I am still flat. Ahead of Trump’s key speech this afternoon I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 130.40/131.20 with the same 129.65 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 131.90
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change: Gold continues to build value above 2650, and I am still flat. Gold has support from 2655/2670. I will leave now raise my buy level to this area with a higher he same 2639 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2684
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat as Silver traded in a narrow range despite Gold continuing to move higher. Silver has support from 29.80/30.70. I will now raise my buy level to this area while leaving my 28.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 31.40.
Please Note: There will no Daily Commentary tomorrow. Any of my calls that are not hit today and are subsequently triggered on Friday will see me return with updated emails on Friday.
Recent Comments