U.S. Equity Markets ultimately sold off on Wednesday amid a large volume spike in the New York afternoon with the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 catching up to the earlier big tech/NDX underperformance. The downside came in the absence of a fresh catalyst, with desks instead pointing to technical factors (fingers were pointed at the 0DTE option crowd) and positioning in “holiday thinning trade”. In stocks, FedEx (FDX) tumbled after its poor earnings and guidance, consumer staples were pressured after a poor General Mills (GIS) report, while Google (GOOGL) was a standout outperformer in Big Tech amid reports it was planning a restructuring of its ad sales. The key macro stimulus for the session earlier on had been the tumble in the UK CPI data that ramped up not just Bank of England cut pricing, but also pricing of cuts for peers such as the Fed and ECB, with soft German PPI data adding to the latter. Treasuries bull-steepened, and the surge in the US Consumer Confidence, hot Existing Home Sales data, and a poor 20-year Treasury Auction only saw a mild pullback for Treasuries, that ultimately faded into the close, aided by the late stock sell off. We had remarks from Fed non-voter Harker, who did allude to the likely need to cut rates in 2024 without giving specifics, whilst appearing more downbeat on the economy than many of his peers. We had more ECB pushback on aggressive cut pricing from the likes of Lane, Knot, Nagel, and Kazaks. The late risk aversion saw a bid for the Dollar, with Sterling the largest G10 underperformer amid the dovish BoE repricing. Oil prices were ultimately little changed with strength out of Europe faded after bearish US inventory data while Gold closed lower by 0.5%. Consumer Confidence for December rose to 110.7, well above the expected 104.0, and prior 101.0. Present Situation and Expectations leapt to 148.5 (prev. 136.5) and 85.6 (prev. 77.4), respectively, with the sharp rise bringing expectations back to the levels of optimism last seen in July. Average 12-month inflation expectations slightly declined to 5.6% (prev. 5.7), while on the jobs footing, those who thought jobs were plentiful rose to 40.7% (prev. 38.6%) and those who thought jobs are hard to get eased to 13.2% (prev. 15.6%). Overall, the report adds, “December’s increase reflected more positive ratings of current business conditions and job availability, as well as less pessimistic views of business, labour market, and personal income prospects over the next six months.”
To mark my 2925th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 1060 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1465 points for December after ending November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.47% lower at a price of 4698.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 475 points lower for a 1.27% loss at a price of 37,082.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.53% lower at a price of 16,554.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.19% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.6% lower.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 1.59% lower at a price of 33,140.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.26% higher.
The Euro closed 0.4% lower at $1.0938.
The British Pound closed 0.6% lower at 1.2631.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.3% closing at $143.42.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 6 basis points lower at 1.97%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 13 basis points lower at 3.53%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 7 basis points lower 3.85%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.3% higher at $74.18 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.5% lower at $2032.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the U.K. or the Euro-Zone. At 1.30 pm we have U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, GDP and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey. Finally, we have the Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index at 4.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
It was getting to the stage where I was thinking of throwing in the towel on looking for a sell-off following the most ridiculous rally in history as this market was not moving but kept crawling up inside the super tight wedge. Then out of nowhere with no apparent news the S&P falls 85 Handles in a couple of hours. This move lower saw two of the nine ‘’Open Gaps’’ filled. I do not know what led to sell-off but as I mentioned yesterday the S&P was testing a number of key trendlines at a time when the market was miles outside its Daily Bollinger Band with an RSI reading of 83. This move lower saw the VIX sike 10% yesterday. I had warned that the VIX could not make a new low despite the S&P closing higher for the previous three trading sessions. Yesterday’s price action produced a bearish engulfing candle helping the S&P to close below its 5 EMA (4716) with a potential ugly Weekly Candle to boot. My S&P plan worked well as after the market hit my 4774 sell level, I had no T/P level as outlined in yesterday’s commentary. I do not know whether yesterday’s sell -off is the start of something significant or may turn out to be a 1 or 2 day wonder ahead of a Santa rally into next week and early January. For this reason, I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any short position at 4695 and I am now flat. I am glad I did as the S&P is trading higher at 4725 this morning. If the S&P sells off over the coming days the 14 EMA comes in at 4660 and the 30 EMA at 4569. Both of these key support levels will be an initial buy. Today, I will be a buyer from 4653/4668 with a tight 4639 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 4691. Despite yesterday’s aggressive sell-off the 14 Day RSI for the $BPSPX still closed at a massively overbought 87 print. The S&P has resistance from 4746/4764 where I will be a small seller with a 4779 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 4728. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
No Change. I am still flat the Euro. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.0810/1.0890 with the same 1.0745 ‘’ Closing Stop’’.
Dollar Index
No Change. This morning the Dollar is trading slightly higher at 102.35. I am still long from last Wednesday at an average rate of 102.80 with the same 101.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 102.95. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
No Change. The DAX is closed tomorrow. I am going to stay flat the DAX over the Christmas break and if this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
Just before the New York close the FTSE traded lower to my 7650 tight T/P level and I am now flat. I am delighted to get filled as the market surged shortly after I posted yesterday morning before eventually selling off on the large reversal in American Indexes. The FTSE is only open for a half-day tomorrow and is closed Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday next week. As a result, I will stay flat until my next Daily Commentary on Thursday.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow made another new all-time high at 37640 yesterday afternoon before falling over 550 points into the close. This move lower saw the Dow hit my 37270 T/P level on my latest 37405 average short position and I am now flat. Yesterday’s 37082 closing print saw the RSI reverse some of its insane excess to still close at an overbought 71 print last night. This morning the Dow is trading 150 points higher at 37240 as yet again traders are buying and ignoring Wednesday’s massive downside Key Day Reversal for now. The Dow has resistance from 37380/37630 where I will be a small seller with a higher 37805 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am take short, I will have a T/P level at 37195. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Yesterday’s 300-point reversal saw the NDX hit my 16660 T/P level on my latest 16780 short position and I am now flat. The NDX has strong resistance from 16800/16950 where I will again be a seller with a higher 17105 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 16670. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
No Change. I am still short in small size from Tuesday at a rate of 137.50. I will continue to look to add to this position at 138.20 while leaving my 139.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level to 136.95. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold had a small retracement yesterday and I am still flat. As I am still long Silver, I will not aggressively chase the price of Gold higher. Gold has short-term support from 1990/2005. I will now lower my buy level to this area with a lower 1979 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still long Silver from two weeks ago at an average price of 24.40 with the same 25.05 T/P level. This morning, Silver is trading at 24.30. I will continue to have no stop on this position. In my opinion, Silver is one of the cheapest asset classes in Global Markets at this time.
Recent Comments