U.S. Indices closed lower on Wednesday, with the NASDAQ underperforming as the tech sector was sold. The sector was hit by reports by the FT that Oracle’s (ORCL) USD 190 billion Michigan data centre deal is in limbo after funding talks with Blue Owl (OWL) stalled. Oracle said the equity deal is still on schedule; however, ORCL shares still slid 5%. Meanwhile, chip names were weighed on (NVDA -3.9%, AMD -5.3%) on Reuters reports that Chinese researchers completed a working EUV prototype in early 2025 and are targeting 2028 for working chips, adding more competition in the tech space and reducing the need for chips from US companies in China. Meanwhile, Google (GOOGL) is reportedly set to collaborate with Meta (META) to expand software support for AI chips, according to Reuters; the project aims to make TPU run well on PyTorch as an alternative to NVIDIA (NVDA). In FX, the Dollar saw mild gains, but the Japanese Yen was the clear laggard, giving up some of its recent gains ahead of the Bank of Japan on Friday. Gold and Silver added to recent gains, with Silver hitting a fresh record high. T-notes ultimately settled flat, but commentary from Fed Governor Waller took T-notes off low, before paring ahead of the 20-year bond auction, which was ultimately in line with recent averages. Energy prices were bid, driven by worsening US-Venezuela relations and potential new energy sanctions on Russia from the US. Looking ahead, the focus on Thursday is the CPI and Jobless Claims data, while the Bank of England and ECB rate decisions are due – BoE widely expected to cut by 25bps, with the ECB widely expected to keep rates on hold. Fed Member Waller the influential Governor spoke extensively on a wide range of topics. On monpol, he noted that the Fed is 50-100bps over neutral, and there is no rush to cut rates given the outlook, he further added that the Fed can continue to bring the rate down, but it is unclear how much support there is for that on the Fed. As a reminder, in the post-FOMC press conference, Powell said the Fed rate is in a “plausible range of neutral”, but it is “at the upper end.” Re. the labour market, Waller noted it is “very soft” and current payrolls are weak, which are 50-60k overstated, close to zero growth, once again echoing Powell, who said jobs are 60k overstated. The Governor added that the job market says the Fed should continue to cut rates and is not seeing the job market go off a cliff. On the other side of the mandate, inflation, Waller said, expectations are anchored, and it is above target but should come down over the next few months. Ahead, Waller expects 1.6% GDP growth this year, versus the Fed SEP median 2025 GDP growth of 1.7%. In addition, he reiterated familiar rhetoric that he does not expect to see more big increases in tariffs. Lastly, the balance sheet says new Fed asset buying is not stimulus, and reserves are “pretty” close to ample. Waller noted that the balance sheet is at the level the Fed wants. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 2% while Gold ended Wednesday’s session with a 0.7% gain.
To mark my 3300th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 160 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2387 points for December after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.16% lower at a price of 6721.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 228 points lower for a 0.47% loss at a price of 47,885.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.93% lower at a price of 24,647.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.02% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 1.03% lower at a price of 49,001.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.25% higher.
The Euro closed 0.10% lower at $1.1742.
The British Pound closed 0.58% lower at $1.3375.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.78% closing at $155.49
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 3 basis points lower at 4.49%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 2 basis points higher at 2.86%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points lower at 4.14%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.91% higher at $57.01 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.71% higher at $4341.10 an ounce.
This afternoon on the Economic Front we have the Bank of England Rate announcement at 12.00 pm followed by the ECB Rate announcement at 1.15 pm. Next, at 1.30 pm we have U.S. CPI, Weekly Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. This followed by the ECB Press Conference with ECB President Lagarde at 1.45 pm. Finally, at 4.00 pm we have the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index at 4.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P made a morning high at 6824 before falling over 100 Handles led by the 4% fall in Nvidia shares. Nvidia has now fallen 20% from its all-time high made last month. This is a massive move that has been reasonably taken by both the NDX and S&P with both Indexes still trading within a few percent of their all-time highs. With the Santa window due to start next week I have no interest in pressing the downside and I will continue to be a buyer of dips. However, as I mentioned over the last week this strategy will change in January when I will look to be a seller of rallies. Yesterday, after the S&P hit my 6788-buy level I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any long position at 6804 which was a timely call and I am still flat. The S&P has strong support from 6670/6690 where I will again be a buyer with a 6649 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 6730. I no longer want to be short the S&P at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still short the Euro at an average rate of 1.1735 with the same 1.1835 ‘Closing Stop’. I will leave my 1.1690 T/P level unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
I am still long the Dollar at an average rate of 98.80. Today I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 99.10 while also leaving my 97.95 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
The Russell missed yesterday’s 2550 initial sell level by 10 points before selling off to sit at 2500 this morning. The Russell has strong support from 2410/2470 where I will be a buyer with a 2355 ‘Closing Stop’. Ahead of next week I have no interest in selling the market. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2520.
FTSE 100
A lower than expected CPI print on Wednesday morning saw the FTSE end yesterday’s session with a strong 1.75% gain. I am still flat as the market never came close to my buy range. The FTSE has resistance from 9910/9980 where I will be a small seller with a 10055 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 9850.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat. The Dow has been hit pretty hard over the past few trading sessions. The Dow has short-term support from 47050/47350 where I will be a strong buyer with a 46795 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 47620. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX got hit hard on Wednesday, trading the whole of my buy range for a now 24930 average long position. I will leave my 24695 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 24990. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
The boring sideways price action in the Bund continues. Hopefully, today’s ECB Statement will bring back some two-way price action. I am still long the Bund at 127.30 with the same 127.70 T/P level. I will add to this trade at 126.60 while leaving my 125.95 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still flat. I have no interest in chasing the price of Gold higher. Neither do I want to be short. As a result, I will wait for a sell-off to initiate a new long position. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still short from early yesterday morning at an average rate of 65.40 with the same 67.05 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now raise my T/P level to 65.10 and go flat. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Please Note: There will be no Daily Commentary tomorrow. Any of my calls that are not hit today and are subsequently executed on Friday will see me return with updated emails for my Platinum Members.
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