U.S. Indices closed positive on Friday, while Treasuries sold off in the wake of the US jobs report. Overall, it was solid as the headline topped expectations, and the Unemployment Rate remained at 4.2%, as expected, albeit with a revision lower to the headline NFP print. Nonetheless, the metrics indicated that the labour market is still healthy and helped offset some of the economic fear seen in the wake of President Trump’s tariffs. The Dollar also gained to the detriment of all G10 FX, with the Japanese Yen the laggard and also weighed on by disappointing Japanese data on Friday morning. Both the Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar were the relative outperformers, but both still saw slight losses. Sectors were exclusively in the green with Energy, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary sitting atop of the pile with the former buoyed by the gains in the crude complex which was supported by the broader risk environment. Elsewhere, the Trump/Musk feud continues to bubble with no plans for a call between the two, and as the President said he is considering getting rid of his Tesla. Regarding US/China, Trump posted on Truth that Bessent, Lutnick, and Greer will be meeting with representatives of China on trade on June 9th (Monday), with talks taking place in London. Spot gold saw weakness, as all attention now turns to US CPI this week, given the Fed is on blackout ahead of their confab on June 18th. The Apple WWDC will also be eyed. Overall, the NFP was a solid jobs report. The headline of 139k beat expectations of 130k but pared from the prior, downwardly revised, 147k (initially 177k), while two-month net revisions fell further to -95k from -58k. The downward revisions and ease in the pace of job growth continue to show the labour market is slowing, but it has not yet reached the point of concern. If the prints start to fall beneath 100k, concerns will likely increase. Ahead of the data, JP Morgan warned a print of sub-100k would likely end the current bull run, and a sub-100k print would put the entire market on recession watch. The Unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%, albeit the labour force participation did ease, but unemployment remains beneath the Fed’s year-end projection (from March) of 4.5%, suggesting there is still room to move higher without cause for concern. Wages were hotter than forecasts and the prior, albeit with the labour market not currently a source of inflation, it has not sparked more inflationary fears, with economists more concerned about the impact of tariffs on prices. In the wake of the solid headline prints, money markets dialled back Fed rate cut expectations, with just 45bps of easing priced throughout 2025. This fully prices one rate cut, which is fully priced by October – with an 80% probability of a second rate cut. US CPI next week will help further shape Fed rate expectations. Fed speakers have been warning that inflation reports ahead may start to show the impact of tariffs to a greater extent but suggest it may take a bit longer for the impact to show up in other economic indicators. In a speech on Friday afternoon Fed Member Harker said amid uncertainty, it is still possible the Fed can cut rates later this year, but uncertainty makes it very hard to divine monetary policy outlook. The Philadelphia Fed President worries the quality of economic data is eroding, and they are increasingly flying blind when it comes to critical data. Harker later added that he sees steadiness in the ‘solid’ latest job data, and much of tariff impacts yet to be felt. Harker added Fed interest rate policy is modestly restrictive, and repeated the familiar line that now is the time for the Fed to hold steady and watch data. As a reminder, Harker is set to retire from the Philadelphia Fed at month’s end. As expected, the ECB cut rates by 25bps on Thursday and made little in the way of changes to its opening statement, which reiterated that the ECB will not pre-commit to a particular policy path. Furthermore, policy will be made via a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach. Of greater interest were the accompanying macro projections, which saw the 2025 inflation forecast lowered to 2.0% from 2.3% and 2026 reduced notably below the ECB’s 2% target to 1.6% from 1.9%. From a growth perspective, forecasts were little changed with a mild downgrade to 2026 GDP. At the follow-up press conference, President Lagarde’s opening remarks carried little of interest. However, during the follow-up Q&A, Lagarde confirmed there was one dissenter to today’s decision (this will likely have been Holzmann given his opposition to a June or July cut in the run-up to the announcement). The bulk of the price action was seen after Lagarde noted that the current level of rates means the ECB is “well-positioned” to navigate the current uncertainties, suggesting that ECB could be at the end of its cutting cycle. Lagarde followed this up by noting the ECB getting towards the end of its current cycle but was not confirming a pause. Another perceived hawkish takeaway came after Lagarde appeared to downplay the 2026 inflation forecast cut, pinning it on energy effects and the recent appreciation of the EUR. Overall, the decision to cut was as expected, however, Lagarde appeared to be a bit more explicit than anticipated in guiding markets towards a potential pause. Market pricing has moved in a slightly hawkish direction with the next 25bps cut not fully priced until December (vs. October pre-release) and 26bps of loosening seen by year-end (vs. 31bps pre-release). In wake of the meeting, Bloomberg sources reported that ECB officials expect rate cuts to be paused at the July meeting, and Reuters reported a visible majority expressed preference for holding in July, but some argued for a longer pause. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 2% while a stronger Dollar saw Gold end Friday with a loss of 1.5%.
To mark my 3200th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 504 points on Friday and is now ahead by 1359 points for June, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.03% higher at a price of 6000.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 443 points higher for a 1.05% gain at a price of 42,762.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.99% higher at a price of 21,761.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.32% higher.
Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% higher.
Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 0.51% higher at a price of 37,741.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.47% higher.
The Euro closed 0.51% lower at $1.1383.
The British Pound closed 0.21% lower at $1.3517.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.81% closing at $144.80.
Bonds
England’s 10-Year Gilt closed 4 basis points higher at 4.65%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 7 basis points higher at 2.58%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 14 basis points higher at 4.50%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.91% higher at $64.58 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.5% lower at $3314.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the Euro-Zone or the U.K. At 3.00 pm we have U.S. Wholesale Inventories, followed by the New York Fed 0ne-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations at 3.30 pm. Finally, we have the Atlanta Fed GDPNow for Q2 at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Friday’s late surge sees the S&P trading less than 2.5% from its February all-time high as yet again shorts are getting obliterated. While my strategy of selling rips has worked well over the past two months it is extremely dangerous to have any short position on board for any length of time. This suggests there is a high degree of complacency in the market. Interestingly, the last time we observed a realised correlation spike, which then remained elevated, was during the March 2022 rally, following the February lows. In the meantime, Bitcoin continues to diverge from the rising S&P 500 index. Notably, BTIC futures have been trending lower since the cash index bottomed back in April, while 10 Year Treasury Yields rising 11 basis points on Friday was no problem as the late surge in the S&P saw the market close at 6000. Given this bullish setup in Treasuries, it seems likely the 10-year rate will continue to rise. If it can clear the 4.61% level, there could be significant upside ahead. I just cannot justify a long position against this backdrop especially as we have eight ‘Open Gaps’ below the market which a scenario that I can never remember happening before. On Thursday, the S&P rallied to my 6005 sell level before falling 80 Handles. This move lower saw my 5987 T/P level triggered and I am still flat as I did not trade the S&P on Friday. The S&P has resistance from 6023/6043 where I will be an aggressive seller with a higher 6061 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6001. The S&P’s 5924 low on Thursday just missed my buy range. Today, I will be a small buyer from 5905/5925 with a higher 5889 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 5943.
EUR/USD
My Euro call worked well as the market rallied to my 1.1490 sell level before falling 100 points. This move lower saw the Euro hit my revised T/P level at 1.1439 and I am still flat. Today, I will again be a seller of the Euro on any further rally to 1.1470/1.1550 with a lower 1.1615 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1390. My only interest in buying the Euro is on a large move lower to 1.1140/1.1220 with the same 1.1035 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1290.
Dollar Index
The pessimism towards the Dollar is intense. Tariff uncertainty, fiscal concerns and a shifting global sentiment are just a few of the reasons cited by investors favouring alternate currencies. The CFTC Futures Contract net short position has increased to 5485 contracts. This is the largest net short stance in nearly 15 years, since August 2011, which was near the start of a four-year Dollar rally. Given this backdrop of negativity, I am happy to be long the Dollar which I am at an average rate of 99.10 with the same 98.45 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 9.90. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
I am still flat as the Russell never came close to Thursday’s buy range. I will now raise my buy level to 2020/2080 with a higher 1965 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2105.
FTSE 100
Late Friday, the FTSE rallied to my initial 8850 sell level. I am still short with the same 8795 T/P level. I will add to this position at 8920 while leaving my 8985 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
After the Dow rallied to my 42830-sell level the market sold off to my revised 42695 T/P level and I am still flat. This morning, the Dow is trading higher at a price of 42720. We have further resistance from 43000/43250 where I will be a seller with a higher 43505 ‘Closing Stop’. The Dow has short-term support below from 41850/42100 where I will continue to be a small buyer with the same 41695 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 42760. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 42330.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I was lucky with Thursday’s call on the NDX as the market spiked on the ECB Rate Cut to my second sell level at 21850 for a 21750 average short position before selling off to my revised 21660 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller of the NDX on any further rally to 21900/22100 with a higher 22255 ‘Closing Stop’. I still do not want to be long the NDX at this time. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 21760.
December BUND
My Bund call worked well as the market sold off to my 130.20 buy level before rallying to my revised 130.68 T/P level and I am now flat. Higher Treasury Yields following the stronger than expected NFP Report saw the Bund fall into the New York close. The Bund has support below from 128.60/129.30 where I will be a strong buyer with a lower 127.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 130.05. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold is trading $80 lower from where I marked prices on Thursday and I am still flat. Gold has short-term support from 3230/3250 where I will be a small buyer with a 3215 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 3275.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat. This morning, Silver is trading at a 13-year high above $36. In my opinion it is only a matter of time before Silver trades higher to $51 which is the all-time high from May 2011. Even though Silver is overbought short-term I will now raise my buy level to 34.70/35.70 with a higher 33.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 37.50.
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