The risk-off tone in trade since liberation day continued on Friday as tariff fears continued to dominate, escalated by the response from China, who implemented a 34% tariff on the US (matching the US rate on China). Meanwhile, Vietnam spoke with the US and said it would remove all tariffs on the US if it reciprocated (this gave a lift to NKE, ONON, LULU, DECK, etc). Stocks were slammed with traders fearful of equities approaching circuit breaker levels. T-notes rallied to north of 114 at the peaks which coincided with a 10 Year Yield of 3.86%, the lowest since October 2024, albeit pared after the strong NFP and a hawkish leaning Fed Chair Powell. Gold prices continued to sell with gold longs likely being unwound to cover equity losses. In FX, the Dollar staged a comeback with DXY looking to close the week at 103.00, versus the low on Thursday of 101.26. The moves in FX were chunky, The Australian Dollar fell over 4% and the New Zealand Dollar fell over -3% with both weighed on by China’s response given their exposure to the nation. The Japanese Yen was weaker despite its haven status and lower US Treasury yields with the Dollar comeback weighing, while there are fears that tariffs would likely delay rate hikes at the Bank of Japan, although not totally derail them – money markets no longer fully price in a BoJ 25bps rate hike this year. The Canadian Dollar was softer versus the Dollar, with a weak labour market report hitting the CAD at a time of tremendous uncertainty. Crude prices were slammed on the ongoing tariff woes, settling lower by c. USD 5.00/bbl for WTI and Brent from Thursday’s settlement. Aside from trade, the highlights were on the US NFP, which was largely looked through, but it did heavily beat expectations on NFP but unemployment ticked up while wages were soft. Fed Chair Powell spoke noting how tariffs are larger than expected, and therefore the impact on the economy will be larger, warning how tariffs will likely increase prices in the coming quarters with more persistent effects also possible. Powell also echoed his line from March when quizzed about a May rate cut, stating the Fed is not in a rush – this saw money markets pull back to just price in 8bps of easing for May, from 12bps earlier in the session, while 96bps of easing is priced through year-end, down from the 112bps previously. The Fed Chair also made it clear that due to the uncertainty, the path ahead for policy is not clear, noting tariffs bring upside risks to both unemployment and inflation, putting the Fed in a difficult position. In response to the USA’s hefty tariffs on China, they responded today and announced additional tariff measures on US goods. China will impose tariffs of 34% on all US goods, and to impose additional tariffs on some US goods from April 10th. Elsewhere in Asia, Cambodia is to cut tariffs on select US imports to 5% from 35%, while Trump posted on Truth that he had a very productive call with Vietnam’s General Secretary To Lam. Vietnam wants to cut their tariffs down to zero if they are able to make an agreement with the US, and is looking forward to their meeting in the near future. Following this, Vietnamese state media largely echoed this and To Lam noted Vietnam is ready to cut tariffs to zero and asks US to do the same, and he agreed with Trump to discuss and sign a bilateral agreement to concretize commitments on zero tariffs. To Lam invited Trump to Vietnam, and Trump accepted the invitation. Over the weekend attention will be on any updates or possible deals/resolutions with countries, given the baseline tariffs rate will go into effect on April 5th at 00:01EDT and reciprocal tariffs will go into effect on April 9th at 00:01EDT. Elsewhere, UK PM Starmer’s spokesperson said the PM will engage with other leaders over the weekend on trade. Separately, but worth noting, Fox reported that sources close to the White House say Treasury Secretary Bessent is trying to quietly moderate the President’s hard-line stance on trade. Headline NFP beat expectations at 228k, well above the 135k consensus and accelerating from February’s 117k (revised down from 151k). It was also above the most optimistic analyst forecast of 185k. The unemployment rate ticked back up to 4.2% from 4.1%, despite expectations for another 4.1% read, although it was accompanied by an uptick in the participation rate to 62.5% from 62.4%. Interestingly, government payrolls rose by 19k, up from the prior 1k (revised down from 11k). The BLS report noted that Federal government employment declined by 4k, less than the 11k in February. Showing that the DOGE layoffs may not be having as much of an impact for now. The earning metrics were on the soft side, rising 0.3% M/M (in line with the consensus) but the prior was revised down to 0.2%, while the Y/Y eased to 3.8% from 4.0%, beneath the 3.9% forecast. Although the labour market is not a cause of inflation at the moment, further weakness in earnings, coupled with fears of inflation upside in the wake of Trump tariffs, will likely dampen consumer spending even further – with a slowdown already feared. Although overall a strong jobs report, the market is highly focused on trade/tariff updates which is driving market sentiment, thus this NFP report overall had little impact. The reports in the months ahead will be eyed by the Fed to see how the jobs market is holding up in the wake of the aggressive Trump tariffs. Fed Chair Powell said their goals may be in tension, but they are not yet – but upside risks to unemployment and inflation puts the Fed in a tricky position. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Powell acknowledged that US President Trump’s tariffs are larger than expected, which risks higher inflation and slower growth. He warned tariffs are likely to raise inflation in the coming quarters, and more persistent effects are possible. Powell also stated how tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected, and the same is true for the economic effects. Given elevated risks of both higher unemployment and higher inflation, Powell says it is too soon to say what the appropriate path for monetary policy will be, but the Fed is well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering adjustments – continuing to take a patient, wait-and-see approach. The Fed Chair also noted how most measures of long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. Overall, it seems Powell is concerned about the impact on the economy from the tariffs, and he seems particularly concerned about the impact on inflation – stating how tariffs are likely to raise inflation in the coming quarters, and more persistent effects of inflation are also possible. He is also concerned about upside risks to unemployment while stressing the outlook remains uncertain. In the Q&A, Powell was asked about the May FOMC, where he repeated what was said at the March FOMC, noting the Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates – implying the Fed does not expect to cut at the next meeting, even after the recent large tariff announcements. The Fed wants to be patient to see the true impact of tariffs on the economy. He also said that policy stance is a good stance to wait, noting policy is modestly restrictive (note, at the March FOMC, Powell said policy is “clearly restrictive”). Powell made clear in the Q&A that it is a good time to step back and let things clarify, reiterating it is too soon to say what the monetary policy response should be and he cannot say with any confidence what it should be. He said they will wait for greater clarity before further adjustments, and that a year from now uncertainty should be much lower. Elsewhere, Oil closed over 6% lower for the second day in a row, while Gold was hammered, ending Friday with a loss of 3%.
To mark my 3150th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 2080 points on Friday and is now down by 915 points for April after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 5.97% lower at a price of 5074.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 2231 points lower for a 5.5% loss at a price of 38,314.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 6.07% lower at a price of 17,397.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 5.12% lower.
Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 3.4% lower.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 2.75% lower at a price of 33,780.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.8% higher.
The Euro closed 1.1% lower at $1.0960.
The British Pound closed 1.3% lower at 1.2885.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.7% closing at $146.97.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 12 basis points lower at 2.59%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 19 basis points lower at 4.45%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 18 basis points lower at 4.00%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 6.08% lower at $62.88 a barrel.
Gold closed 3.1% lower at $3031.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German, U.K. and Euro-Zone Composite PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. Next, we have Euro-Zone PPI at 10.00 am. This is followed by U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims and the Trade Balance at 1.30 pm while at 2.45 pm we have Composite PMI. Finally, we have ISM Manufacturing PMI at 3.00 pm and the Atlanta Fed GDP Now at 6.00 pm. Meanwhile, Fed Members Jefferson and Cook are speaking at 5.30 pm and 7.30 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
Friday was the largest volume day for total shares on all the combined U.S. Indexes ever. This is some statement and shows what truly historic has transpired since Trump’s Tariff announcement on Wednesday night. The main cause for Friday’s 6% fall in the S&P was China announcing on Friday morning with their own 34% Tariff. This move lower has been self inflicted by one man and we are now dealing with the worst market action since COVID in terms of speed and volatility. You know there is perhaps playing insane to get what you want and there is just plain insane and the longer this goes on the latter part seemingly becomes ever more likely and I do not think any of us would want that. China’s 34% Tariff will hurt American Businesses big time as we have seen with NVIDIA shares down 30% from their all-time highs, Tesla down 40%, Apple- 25% and Amazon – 22%. The two largest nations going full in on Tariffs will guarantee a recession. The S&P hit a high of Wednesday night at 5729 before falling 700 Handles in 48 hours. I am rarely lost for words but this is insane. Not even during the COVID crash has the S&P been this far outside the bottom of its Daily Bollinger Band with a 14-Day RSI reading of just 23. The VIX surged to close at 45.31 on Friday which is its highest closing level since April 2020. The VIX has left 6 ‘Open Gaps’ below the market and none above. All VIX gaps get filled and is one of the main reasons why I am long. The VIX RSI closed at 82. Historically anytime the RSI prints over 73 it is followed by a massive rally in the S&P. According to research from Goldman Sachs, Friday was the largest selling day in history. Crashes are rare and we are now in one given the speed of last week’s sell-off. The S&P is now down 18% from its all-time high, the NDX by 23% and the Small Cap Russell is lower by 26% from its November high. Given all of the above in normal circumstance I would expect a re-test of the 200 Day Moving Average which comes in at a price of 5760. According to Trump 50 Countries contacted him over the weekend to do a deal on Tariffs. He should reduce the Tariff rate to 10% across the board to give time for negotiations. If this happens then the Markets will rip higher. Trump is a business man at the end of the day and I cannot see him continuing with these inflated Tariffs without lowering the rate first. This morning the S&P is trading a further 5% lower as I go to press. It is shocking to think that in the space of a week all the S&P gains made since January 2024 have been wiped out. This is a massive move with wide repercussions. US markets and global markets are screaming at the US administration that their policy is disastrous for the global economy, including America. Whether they are capable of admitting that to themselves is a different question and as we know losing face is hard. If the market does not reverse in the next few days, I suspect millions will ultimately end up losing their jobs as America goes into full recession no matter what Bessent said yesterday. The 200 MA reconnects are even further away that where I mentioned above and probably as the most extreme levels in history as I go to post. I am still long the S&P at an average rate of 5520. I have added to this position here at 4840 with no stop or T/P level for now. Let’s see what happens overnight and I will be back tomorrow with a further update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still flat the Euro as the market just missed Thursday’s buy range before rallying to a new 2025 high at 1.1150. Given how overbought the Euro had become it was no surprise to see the market fall 200 points on Friday. I will now raise my Euro buy level to 1.0830/1.0910 with a higher 1.0745 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.0990. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
Dollar Index
The Dollar fell 2% on Thursday before recovering half of that loss on Friday, trading at 103.00 this morning. I will now lower my sell level to 103.60/104.30 with a lower 105.05 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 102.90.
Russell 2000
Wrong! The Russell got hit hard on both Thursday and Friday. This lower move saw my second buy level at 1885 triggered for a 1915 average long position. Subsequently, I was stopped out of this position at 1815 and I am now flat. Since I switched from covering the DAX to the Russell Index, this is the first loss that we have taken. It is interesting that while the Russell made new lows on Thursday it did not on Friday especially when the Dow, S&P and NDX got slammed after the close on Friday which can be taken as positive divergence. The Russell has now left six ‘Open Gaps’ above which is something that has never happened before. As I go to press the Russell is trading at a price of 1735. I have bought the market in large size. I will add to this position at 1660. I will have no stop or T/P level on this position for now. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
Wrong! The FTSE gapped lower on Friday, closing lower by over 3%. This move lower saw my second buy level at 8300 filled for a 8380 average long position before stopping me out of this trade at 8115 and I am now flat. The FTSE is now severely oversold. We have short-term support from 7640/7710 where I will again be a buyer with a 7545 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 7870.
Dow Rolling Contract
Wrong! The Dow traded the whole of Thursday’s buy range for a 41000 average long position before stopping me out of this trade at 40595. Subsequently, the Dow got hammered on Friday, suffering its third largest point sell-off in history as it closed lower by 2231 points – which is over 4000 points lower from where we closed on Wednesday evening. Unfortunately, this move did not suit me as I bought the Dow again at an average rate of 40260 before stopping myself out of this position at 39105. This morning the Dow is trading lower at 36900. The market is severely oversold, trading way outside the bottom of its Daily Bollinger Band. We have support from 36500/36800 where I will again be a buyer with a 36195 ‘Closing Stop’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 38350.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I added to my existing 18920 long NDX position on Friday at a price of 18200 for a now 18560 average long position. The market has now lost over $10 trillion since Trump was inaugurated which is just a staggering amount of capital. If the reciprocal tariffs go through this week it is not only businesses that would go bust and related job losses, but a lot of these businesses have loans with banks and you could run into bank defaults en masse. This is so dangerous a gamble that Trump is playing. Hence, I have to believe that there is an end game to this that does actually try to avoid a recession. Powell was wise not to jump to Trump’s gun of looking for a cut in rates. Crashes create massive market imbalances and this one stands out already simply because we have never seen drops outside the Bollinger Bands of this magnitude be it Daily or Weekly. We did not even see this during the COVID crash. All of this is very much extreme and reconnects with the Daily 200 MAs will come, question is from when and where. Friday’s close for the NDX means a basic reconnect with the 200 MA would constitute a 17% rally. This would be a massive move. Any further move lower from here would only excaberate the stretch which offers a massive buying opportunity in my opinion. For these reasons I will stay long my NDX position with no stop or T/P level If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
Bund Yields are ridiculously low at this point, having fallen over 40 basis points over the past few weeks. The Bund has short-term resistance from 131.50/132.50 where I will be a seller with a 133.25 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 130.70. I no longer want to be long the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold closed a hefty 3% lower on Friday and I am still flat. Despite this fall, Gold is still overbought and I am going to stay flat Gold for now. I prefer to be a buyer of dips that sell the rally. Therefore I will wait until Gold falls below $3000 before looking at a buy setup. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
Wrong! Silver traded range whole of my buy range for a 32.20 average long position before stopping me out of this trade at 30.55 and I am now flat. There is no doubt that both Gold and Silver sold off on Friday on the back of margin calls to pay for equity exposure. I much prefer to be a buyer of Silver on dips. Silver has support from 27.70/28.60 where I will be a strong buyer with a wider 26.55 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 30.60.
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