U.S. Indexes closed the final session of the week mixed, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (-0.4%) lagging, and the small-cap Russell 2000 (+0.7%) outperforming. The former was weighed on by weakness in NVDA, AMZN, META, TSLA, and PLTR, which saw large-cap sectors Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, and Technology as the only sectors in the red. Utilities and Health were the clear outperformers. Newsflow was very thin on Friday, with ISM Services and Fed speak the highlights given the postponement of the US payrolls report due to the US government shutdown. ISM Services disappointed on the headline and fell to 50.0 (exp. 51.7, prev. 52.0) and beneath the bottom end of the forecast range. Business activity and new orders tumbled, with the latter into contractionary territory, while employment and prices paid both ticked incrementally higher. The Dollar was lower with NZD and GDP the G10 outperformers, while the Japanese Yen lagged amid Ueda comments overnight. Treasuries were weaker across the curve as newsflow/data failed to have a lasting impact on direction. The crude complex saw gains, but still ended the week notably in the red ahead of the OPEC meeting yesterday, whereby the latest source reports noted OPEC+ is set for a further oil output increase, although the size is still unclear. Spot gold firmed but could not breach $3900/oz to the upside. The ISM Services PMI was soft, the headline fell to 50.0 – the line between contraction and growth – from the 52.0 reading in August, and below the 5.17 consensus, and also beneath the most pessimistic analyst forecast. The drop in the headline was led by a hit to new orders, falling to 50.4 from 56.0, while business activity fell to 49.9 from 55.0. The prices paid remained elevated at 69.4 while employment remained in contractionary territory at 47.2, above the prior 46.5. Within the report, it noted “Commentary in general indicated moderate or weak growth, with more isolated observations of supplier delivery challenges. Employment continues to be in contraction territory, thanks to a combination of delayed hiring efforts and difficulty finding qualified staff.” Due to the Government agency-produced data being on pause at the moment due to the shutdown, Federal Reserve officials will have to rely on private market data to get a temperature check on the economy. As such, Oxford Economics adds that neither the ISM nor ADP reports this week paint a particularly robust picture of the labour market; With all measures of employment pointing to contraction, an October rate cut seems locked in. Fed Governor Miran said access to data is important to making policy and is hopeful Fed will have the needed data by next FOMC; Fed policy should be forward-looking. Re. inflation expects serious disinflation in services inflation due to housing and population shifts and adds that inflation expectations are reasonably well anchored; does not expect broad-based inflation increase after tariffs. On rates, the real neutral rate is about 0.5% and does not think the position on the neutral rate is extreme, just wants to get there faster. The method of using backwards-looking data is misguided, and financial conditions may not give a good read for Fed policy. Fed Member Goolsbee when asked about the lack of data, said the Chicago Fed employment measure (released 2nd Oct) tracks unemployment at 4.3%, which was unchanged M/M and in line with analyst expectations for the delayed official BLS report. Chicago Fed President said market expects cuts, Fed will act on data; uptick in services inflation is probably not from tariffs and reiterated he is wary about front-loading rate cuts. On the potential lack of data given the Government shutdown, he remarked that there are a lot of private sector gauges on the labour market, but not so much for inflation. Finally, Fed Member Logan is worried about non-housing services inflation that has been elevated and stuck there. She acknowledged that there are also upside risks to good prices even after the tariff effect fades. The 2026 voter described policy as likely just modestly restrictive. Risks that tariff effects are more prolonged raise the risk of a rise in long-term inflation expectations. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 0.66% while Gold ended Friday’s session with a gain of 0.5%.
To mark my 3250th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 140 points yesterday and is now ahead by 630 points for October after closing September with a gain of 3774 points after ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.01% higher at a price of 6715.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 238 points higher for a 0.51% gain at a price of 46,758.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.43% lower at a price of 24,785.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.50% higher
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 1.1% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 4.81% higher at a price of 47,969.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.14% lower.
The Euro closed 0.11% higher at $1.1740.
The British Pound closed 0.05% higher at $1.3479.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.21% closing at $147.49
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 1 basis points higher at 4.70%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points lower at 2.70%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points higher at 4.12%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.66% lower at $61.96 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.17% higher at $3864.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German, Euro-Zone and U.K. Construction PMI at 8.25 am, 8.30 am and 9.30 am respectively. Also, at 9.30 am we have Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence followed by Retail Sales at 10.00 am. Finally, we have a speech from ECB President Lagarde at 6.00 pm and Bank of England Governor Bailey at 6.30 pm. Due to the Government shutdown there will be no U.S. data released until further notice.
Cash S&P 500
As the S&P continues to trade outside the top of all its major Bollinger Bands sentiment is again displaying extreme optimism as shown by the Market Vane’s Bullish Consensus data. This Index tracks the buy and sell recommendations by analysts and Commodity Trading Advisors. The current reading of 70 has only been exceeded twice: A reading of 74 in December 2024 while led to a 21% decline in the S&P. Earlier a reading of 73 occurred in January 2018 eventually leading to a 35% plunge. Current sentiment is compatible with a fifth wave, as are measures of market breadth. The NYSE advance/decline line made its high on July 23, two months ago and has failed to confirm the new highs in stock indexes since then. I find it hard to believe that this rally will continue into year-end without a meaningful correction first. Never mind the valuations but economic data shows a weakening economy and a market that has gone vertical since the April lows. Both the S&P and NDX are so ridiculously one way extended with no pullback in sight. It will be interesting to see if Friday’s late reversal is the start of something important or buyer will just show up today and drive the market back to Friday’s all-time highs. The charts are increasingly suggestive of a correction coming while the VIX is telling us that we will see a volatility event in the coming weeks. I am still short the S&P at an average rate of 6696 with the same 6731 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now raise my T/P level to 6688 and reassess if triggered. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The Euro sold off to my 1.1690 T/P level on my latest 1.1750 short position. On Friday the Euro rallied again to my new 1.1750 short position as emailed to my Platinum Members. I will have a 1.1690 T/P level on this position. I will add to this position at 1.1830 with the same 1.1915 ‘Closing Stop’. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
I am still long the Dollar at a price of 97.70 from Tuesday. I will continue to look to add to this position at 97.00 with the same 96.35 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now lower my T/P level to 98.15. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
The Russell rallied to my 2470 sell level. I am still short with a now higher 2430 T/P level. I will add to this position at 2530 while leaving my tight 2575 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
The FTSE continues to trade near all-time highs into the upper Bollinger Band. I have no idea why the FTSE is so strong given the sluggish economy, a messy budget situation and inflation the highest in the G7 Nations. This is definitely above my pay grade but these are the markets we face and have to try and analyse. I am still flat the market. Today, I will continue to be a seller from 9520/9580 with the same 9651 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 9450. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
On Friday afternoon the Dow traded the whole of my sell range for a 46860 average short position. To reduce risk I covered this position at my revised 46780 T/P level and I am now flat. The Dow is severely overbought in the short-term and will have resistance at Friday’s 47050 all-time high. Today, I will be a seller from 47000/47250 with a higher 47505 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 46720.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I am still short from last week at an average rate of 24700 with the same 24570 T/P level. I will leave my 24905 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
The Bund has literally stopped trading with daily ranges the lowest that I can ever remember. The 10-year Bund Yield has traded withing a couple of basis points either side 0f 2.70% for most of the past six weeks. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 127.90/128.70 with the same 127.15 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 129.30.
Gold Rolling Contract
Overnight, Gold surged to another new all-time high at 3945. This move higher saw the whole of my sell range triggered for a now 3925 average short position. I will leave my 3951 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged, while raising my T/P level to 3902. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver closed at a new 11-year high on Friday at $48 and I am still flat. Silver has short-term support from 45.50/46.50. I will now raise my buy level to this area with a higher 43.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 47.30.
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