U.S. Indices closed the first trading session of 2026 mixed, with NASDAQ underperforming- completely unwinding its outperformance at the opening bell. Sectors were predominantly firmer with Energy, Industrials and Materials leading the gains. Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services and Consumer Staples lagged while Tech was flat. The weakness in Consumer Discretionary was led by Tesla (TSLA) after poor Q4 delivery numbers. In FX, antipodes outperformed tracking base metals higher while the Dollar saw slight gains and the Euro lagged. The focus was on the PMI numbers in the Euro-Zone but resulted in little reaction. T-Notes bear steepened ahead of a busy week, with focus on NFP and the potential next Fed Chair pick, we will also see the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs. Oil prices settled marginally lower on Friday amid a light day of newsflow, as oversupply worries outweighed geopolitical concerns ahead of OPEC+ on Sunday. US Treasuries were lower across the curve on the first trading day of 2026 in what was very quiet trade, with the only data being the final US S&P Global manufacturing PMI, which was maintained at 51.8, albeit forecasts were for a rise to 52.2 – little reaction was seen in T-Notes. This coming week, however, could see some volatility with the potential Fed Chair pick, whereby the odds of Hassett taking the helm have eased to just 42%, with Warsh not far behind at 34%, followed by 13% for Waller. On Friday we will also see the December jobs report, which will help shape Fed rate cut expectations for 2026 with currently over 50bps of easing priced. This implies more than the Fed median of just one rate cut this year, with markets pricing in the probability of a more dovish Fed chair, too. However, views on the Fed are varied – the 2026 dot plots see rates ending the year in a vast range, between 2.00-2.25% at the low end, and 3.75-4.00% at the high end, versus the current 3.50-3.75% rates. Also, this week, participants will be eyeing a return of corporate issuance with the New Year underway and with the holidays behind us. Elsewhere, Gold closed Friday with a 3% loss while Oil was flat.
To mark my 3300th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 580 points yesterday on the first trading session for January having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.19% higher at a price of 6858.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 319 points higher for a 0.66% gain at a price of 48,382.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.17% lower at a price of 25,206.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.67% higher.
Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.2% lower.
Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 0.37% lower at a price of 50,339.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.11% higher.
The Euro closed 0.15% higher at $1.1725.
The British Pound closed 0.12% lower at $1.3421.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.13% closing at $156.79
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 5 basis points higher at 4.54%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points higher at 2.91%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points higher at 4.20%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.17% lower at $57.32 a barrel.
Gold closed 3.01% lower at $4315.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence at 9.30 am. This is followed by U.S. ISM Manufacturing at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have the Atlanta Fed GDP Now for Q4 at 5.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Happy New Year. I am back after taking the past ten days off, which is the longest stretch without a Daily Commentary in nearly 13 years of doing this. That said, not much has changed for the S&P 500, the 30-year Treasury, or, for that matter, the Dollar Index. It was almost as if the markets were frozen in time. While it will be another 12 weeks before spring, the markets should begin to thaw. The implied volatility selling that really started around Thanksgiving and then reemerged during Christmas now appears largely complete. The calendar will no longer be the market’s friend. This is not to say there will not be days when markets are closed, but the combination of shortened trading weeks and half-days created an ideal environment for selling volatility. Couple that with inferior trading volumes, and it created an ideal setup for stocks to rally modestly. Unfortunately, by the time we reached Christmas week, implied volatility was already too low, and there was not enough juice left in the market to push prices higher. It underscores just how important implied volatility selling has become to this market at this stage of the cycle. The VIX 1-Day finished the week below 10. With everything going on globally and several major economic reports scheduled for this week, it would not be surprising to see the VIX 1-Day rise into the mid- to upper-teens by Friday. If that occurs, it likely implies a bearish bias at the start of the week. The setup in the S&P 500 heading into 2026 is not much different from what we saw at the start of 2022 and 2025. In each instance, the Index traded largely sideways, making only marginal new highs. Additionally, similar bearish divergences had formed in the relative strength indexes. Additionally, in both 2022 and 2025, BTIC S&P 500 Total Return futures surged into year-end and then collapsed as the calendar turned. We have seen the same pattern emerge since mid-December as we move into 2026. Of course, we know what followed in those years: a sharp decline in the cost of equity financing, ultimately accompanied by a move lower in the major equity indexes. The final piece is liquidity, and while the Fed has begun buying T-bills, it has had little to no impact so far, with reserves finishing the year at $2.85 trillion.In fact, on December 31, SOFR traded 22 basis points over IORB. While that was not the highest level seen, it was close, and the issue is that the Fed’s plans to purchase T-bills will take time to become large enough to lower overnight funding rates meaningfully. We likely will not know the full impact until Treasury T-bill issuance begins to ramp back up. Issuance was reduced in December, leading to net paydowns, which in turn pushed liquidity into the overnight market. However, that dynamic is likely to reverse sometime by mid-January. It seems clear from this that settlement dates tend to push SOFR higher. As the flow of Treasury settlements changes, we could once again see the effects show up in the overnight funding markets. This means liquidity conditions will ease somewhat this week but could tighten again as we head into mid-month. The liquidity constraints are likely not over. Finally, the 10-year Treasury yield rose back to 4.2% this past week and is very close to breaking out. Based on the Daily Chart, a move back into the mid-4.3% range now seems highly possible. It will be interesting to see how the S&P reacts to a further in yields. My S&P plan worked well. After the market hit my initial 6910 sell level, I covered this position at my revised 6903 T/P level. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to go short the S&P again at a price of 6930. The S&P then fell 100 Handles. This lower move saw my 6903 T/P level triggered and I am now flat. On Friday the S&P closed at 6858 having hit a morning high of 6994 before falling 70 Handles and then having a small rally into the close. The S&P has resistance from 6890/6915 where I will be a small seller with a tight 6931 ‘Closing Stop’. I still do not want to be long the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
Finally, on Friday the Euro traded lower to my 1.1720 T/P level on my latest 1.1735 average short position and I am still flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 1.1750/1.1830 with a wider 1.1905 ‘Closing Stop’. I still do not want to be long the Euro at this time.
Dollar Index
The Dollar has literally traded in a 60-point range for most of the past month. I am still long the Dollar at an average rate of 98.80. Today I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 99.10 while also leaving my 97.95 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
In contrast to the other major U.S. Indexes the Rusell has traded heavy over the Christmas period. I am still flat as the market never came close to my sell range. I will now lower my sell level to 2540/2600 with a lower 2655 ‘Closing Stop. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2490.
FTSE 100
The FTSE surged on Friday, breaking the key 10,000 pivot point, registering a new all-time high at 10050. This move higher saw the whole of my sell range triggered for a now 9985 average short position. I will leave my 10085 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while raising my T/P level to 9920. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well. The Dow rallied to my 48750-sell level before falling almost 1000 points. This move lower saw my revised 48580 T/P level executed and I am still flat. Today, I will again be a seller on any further rally to 48700/49000 with the same 49305 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 48420. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX position worked well as the market rallied to my 25700-sell level before trading lower to my revised 25540 T/P level and I am now flat. I am still flat. Given the fact that we are in the Santa rally window, my only interest in selling the NDX is on a further rally 25650/25850 with the same 26005 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 25490.
December BUND
It took a while but finally the Bund rallied to my 127.40 T/P level on my 126.95 average long position and I am still flat. The Bund has support below, from 125.80/126.50 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 125.15 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 127.10. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold saw plenty of two-way volatility over the holiday period, closing lower at 4315 on Friday. This evening Gold is higher, trading at 4375 on the back of the U.S. invasion of Venezuela. I am still flat Gold and I am going to stay flat as I still have no edge at these price levels. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
Wow. An incredible up and down move for Silver over the last 10 days. Silver hit a high above $84 before falling $13 in the same trading session for the largest downside key day reversal since May 2011. After Silver hit my second sell level at 71.30 for a 70.55 average short position I was stopped out of this trade at my revised 72.05 stop and I am still flat. On Friday Silver closed at 72.50. We have short-term resistance from 76.00/78.00 where I will again be a seller with a 79.55 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 74.40. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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