U.S. Indices closed the first trading session of 2026 mixed, with NASDAQ underperforming- completely unwinding its outperformance at the opening bell. Sectors were predominantly firmer with Energy, Industrials and Materials leading the gains. Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services and Consumer Staples lagged while Tech was flat. The weakness in Consumer Discretionary was led by Tesla (TSLA) after poor Q4 delivery numbers. In FX, antipodes outperformed tracking base metals higher while the Dollar saw slight gains and the Euro lagged. The focus was on the PMI numbers in the Euro-Zone but resulted in little reaction. T-Notes bear steepened ahead of a busy week, with focus on NFP and the potential next Fed Chair pick, we will also see the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs. Oil prices settled marginally lower on Friday amid a light day of newsflow, as oversupply worries outweighed geopolitical concerns ahead of OPEC+ on Sunday. US Treasuries were lower across the curve on the first trading day of 2026 in what was very quiet trade, with the only data being the final US S&P Global manufacturing PMI, which was maintained at 51.8, albeit forecasts were for a rise to 52.2 – little reaction was seen in T-Notes. This coming week, however, could see some volatility with the potential Fed Chair pick, whereby the odds of Hassett taking the helm have eased to just 42%, with Warsh not far behind at 34%, followed by 13% for Waller. On Friday we will also see the December jobs report, which will help shape Fed rate cut expectations for 2026 with currently over 50bps of easing priced. This implies more than the Fed median of just one rate cut this year, with markets pricing in the probability of a more dovish Fed chair, too. However, views on the Fed are varied – the 2026 dot plots see rates ending the year in a vast range, between 2.00-2.25% at the low end, and 3.75-4.00% at the high end, versus the current 3.50-3.75% rates. Also, this week, participants will be eyeing a return of corporate issuance with the New Year underway and with the holidays behind us. Elsewhere, Gold closed Friday with a 3% loss while Oil was flat.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 580 points yesterday on the first trading session for January having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
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