U.S. Indices endured a choppy session but closed notably in the green, and at highs as they saw a notable bid into settlement amongst month-end, despite the initial sell-off seen post-US open. US January PCE was the scheduled data highlight, but turned out to be a damp squib, in terms of market reaction, as both headline and core metrics M/M and Y/Y printed in line. At the same time, US advanced goods trade balance deficit soared ~26% M/M as imports surged amid potential front-loading ahead of tariffs. In the wake of the data, the latest Atlanta Fed GDPnow model for Q1 forecasted -1.5% from +2.3%, which prompted risk-off trade – US equity futures sold, Treasuries bid, and the Japanese Yen firmed. Nonetheless, the session highlight came after a fiery and argumentative meeting between US President Trump and Ukraine President Zelensky. Summarising, Trump told Zelensky “You are gambling with World War III”, “You either make a deal or we are out”. Following the meeting, where a joint press conference was originally scheduled, Trump posted on ‘’Truth’’, that Zelensky disrespected the U.S. and he could come back when ready for peace. Summarising the fallout, a minerals deal was not signed, the joint press conference was cancelled, and leaders throughout Europe have announced their solidarity with Ukraine. In the wake of the fireworks, the Dollar and WTI saw upside, with the latter’s move to the detriment of all G10 FX peers. Elsewhere, the crude complex settled slightly lower, but well-off earlier lows, following Trump and Zelensky’s aforementioned fiery meeting, whereby Zelensky was asked to leave the White House. Meanwhile, the Treasuries rally resumed as concerns over the US economy returned and geopolitical tensions climbed. U.S. January PCE was in line with expectations as Headline M/M and Y/Y printed 0.3% (exp. 0.3%, prev. 0.3%, unrounded 0.3254%) and 2.5% (exp. 2.5%, prev. 2.6%), respectively. Meanwhile, Core M/M came in at 0.3% or 0.2847% unrounded (exp. 0.3%, prev. 0.2%), while Y/Y was 2.6% (exp. 2.6%, prev. 2.9%). The 6-month annualised rate climbed to 2.5% (prev. 2.3%), while the 3- month annualised rate was unchanged at 2.2%. Capital Economics notes that favourable base effects mean downward progress on core inflation is likely to continue over the next few months, before it is cut short when some combination of Trump’s reciprocal and wider tariffs come into effect. Elsewhere, Personal income rose 0.9% (exp. 0.3%, prev. 0.4%). Adj. consumption eased 0.2% (exp. 0.1%, prev. 0.8%), while real consumption declined 0.5% (prev. +0.5%). For the latter, CapEco notes while it is tempting to pin the fall entirely on harsh winter weather last month, the breakdown shows that spending in some typically weather-related categories (food services and accommodation) outperformed. CapEco adds, that it is not to say the weather did not have any impact and they do expect consumption to rebound this month. Even so, as the fall was greater than they forecasted, it poses a downside risk to CapEco’s Q1 GDP estimate of 1.5%. Note, the latest Atlanta Fed GDPnow (Q1) sees a decline of 1.5% (prev. 2.3%). Ahead, with the inflation rate still too hot for the Fed’s liking and, with inflationary tariff measures pilling up, Capital Economics stand by its view that rate cuts are off the table this year. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 0.84% while Gold ended Friday with a loss of 2%.
To mark my 3150th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 620 points on Friday, to close February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.59% higher at a price of 5954.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 601 points higher for a 1.39% gain at a price of 43,840.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.62% higher at a price of 20,884.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.01% higher.
Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 1.3% lower.
Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 2.88% lower at a price of 37,155.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.30% higher.
The Euro closed 0.50% lower at $1.0375.
The British Pound closed 0.8% lower at 1.2574.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.6% closing at $150.56.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 4 basis points lower at 2.38%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points lower at 4.48%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 5 basis points lower at 4.22%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.84% lower at $69.76 a barrel.
Gold closed 2% lower at $2852.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German, Euro-Zone and U.K. Manufacturing PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. This is followed by Euro-Zone CPI at 10.00 am. Next, we have U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 2.45 pm, followed by ISM Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending at 10.00 am. Finally, we have the Dallas Fed PCE at 5.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
At 7.30 pm on Friday evening the S&P was trading at a price of 5860 before having a dramatic 100-Handle rally into its 9.00 pm Chicago close. Apart from the $NYSI every signal was showing a market that was severely oversold. I emailed this to my Platinum Members on Friday saying the risk/reward was to be a strong buyer after I had been stopped out of Thursday’s 5898 average long position at 5875. I bought the S&P at an average rate of 5851 before the market rallied to my revised 5890 T/P level and I am now flat. Friday’s late rally saw a number of key Moving Averages hold after earlier tests. Despite the 100 Handle rally a lot of technical damage was done last week making this week’s price action tricky to analyse. The S&P has resistance from 5995/6015 where I will be a small seller with a 6031 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has short-term support from 5898/5916 where I will be a buyer with a 5881 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 5978. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 5938.
EUR/USD
The Euro got hit hard over the past two trading sessions. This move lower saw the whole of my buy range triggered for a now 1.0415 average long position. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.0470 while leaving my wider 1.0295 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
My latest long 106.60 Dollar position worked well as the market rallied to my 107.10 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning, the Dollar is trading at a price of 107.25 as I go to press. The Dollar has short-term support from 106.20/106.90 where I will again be a buyer with a higher 105.65 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 107.40.
Russell 2000
The Russell sold off to my second buy level at 2150 for a now 2180 average long position. I will now raise my stop to a price of 2125 while lowering my T/P level to 2220. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE ignored any unrest or weak economic data from U.S. to surge to new all-time highs on Friday. Thankfully, we were not short and are still flat as the market never came close to Thursday’s buy range. The FTSE is again overbought. We have short-term resistance 8910/8980 where I will be a seller with a 9055 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. I no longer want to be a buyer of the FTSE at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well as the market sold off to my 43120-buy level on Friday before rallying over 750 points in the last hour of trading. An incredible move into month-end and again proves the dangers in trying to short any of the American Indexes for more than a few days. This move higher saw my revised 43370 T/P level triggered and I am now flat. The Dow has support below from 43350/43600 where I will again be a small buyer with a 43195 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Wow! We have seen incredible price action in the NDX over the past two trading sessions. On Thursday, the NDX The NDX traded lower to my 20930 ‘’Strong’’ buy level before rallying to my 21090 T/P level. Subsequently, the NDX got hit hard, hitting a low on Friday at a price of 20410. This move lower saw me buy the NDX again at an average rate of 20770. This morning, the NDX opened above my 20910 T/P at a price of 20957, generating a gain of 187 points which I will take into my March performance. The NDX is trading 150 points lower from its overnight 20990 high print as I go to press. We have short-term support from I am 20470/20720 where I will again be a buyer with a 20295 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 20860. I still do not want to be short the NDX at this time.
December BUND
I am still flat the Bund as the market never came close to Thursday’s buy range. With Bund Yields at 2.38%, I no longer want to be a buyer of the market as the risk/reward is not worth it. Treasury Yields have fallen over 50 basis points on the back of the much weaker than expected U.S. Economic data over the past 10 days. Both Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent want lower Bond Yields to try and fund the insane debt levels. The Bund closed on Friday at a price of 133.15. We have short-term resistance from 133.50/134.30 where I will be a seller with a 135.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 132.90.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold is trading over $80 lower from where I marked prices on Thursday, and I am still flat as staying away from Gold seemed to be the sensible scenario given the political and market carnage over the past week. This morning, Gold is trading at 2850. We have support below from 2790/2810 where I will be a small buyer with a 2769 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 2828. I no longer want to be short Gold at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
Despite Gold’s 4% fall since I marked prices last Thursday, Silver has actually held in. I am still long Silver at an average rate of 31.75 from last Tuesday. I will leave my 32.20 T/P level unchanged. I will also leave my 30.25 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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