U.S. Indexes closed the final session of the week in positive territory following strength in wake of the US PCE report for August, which saw all the major metrics print in line. Treasuries saw two-way action on PCE, while the Dollar sold off. In the FX space, the Greenback saw weakness and pared some of the notable strength seen on Wednesday and Thursday. As has been the case for the last couple of days, G10 FX peers have been at the whim of the Dollar and as such were firmer across the board with little currency-specific newsflow. The crude complex extended on weekly gains, as geopolitics has dominated the slate, with the latest update via the Wall Street Journal noting Trump told Zelensky he was open to lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s use of American-made long-range weapons to strike inside Russia, but he did not commit to doing so during a meeting on Tuesday. Sectors were almost exclusively in the green, with only Consumer Staples in the red and weighed by Costco (-2.9%) after SSS missed. Consumer Discretionary and Utilities outperform. Aside from PCE on Friday, overnight announced tariffs on heavy trucks, pharma, and some home improvement products as of Oct 1st, 2025. On pharmaceuticals, a 100% tariff will be imposed on any branded or patented pharmaceutical product unless the company is building its pharmaceutical manufacturing plant in America. CNBC later reported that the White House will honour a 15% cap on pharma tariffs as part of trade deals with the EU and Japan, while Reuters said Britain would face 100% tariffs on US pharma. Precious metals (XAU, XAG) both firmed, with Spot Silver outperforming its counterpart. PCE was largely as expected. Personal Income & Consumption were the exception, rising 0.4% (exp. 0.3%, prev. 0.4%) and 0.6% (exp. 0.5%, prev. 0.5%), respectively. Core rose 0.2% M/M (exp. 0.2%) after the downwardly revised July figure of 0.2% (prev. 0.3%). Core Y/Y printed 2.9% (exp. 2.9%, prev. 2.9%). Headline M/M rose 0.3% (exp. 0.3%, prev. 0.2%) and Y/Y rose 2.7% (exp. 2.7%, prev. 2.6%). Personal Consumption on a real basis rose 0.3% (prev. 0.3%, rev. 0.4%). The PCE supercore measure rose 0.33% M/M (prev. 0.4%) and 3.4% Y/Y. The report resulted in some US Dollar selling, but quite a muted reaction in T-Notes, with October rate cut bets seeing a slightly dovish move by end of day. NFP on Friday is more likely to have a greater impact on the trajectory of the FFR in the current environment, whereby downside risks towards the labour market have gained more significance in the Fed’s decision-making. Ahead, Pantheon Macroeconomics expect real after-tax income to remain stagnant through the end of this year, “given that employment intentions remain weak and only about one-third of the tariff-related uplift to consumer prices has fed through”. The firm continues to expect core PCE inflation to peak at about 3.25% early next year and then to rise at an annualised pace of just 2% from Q2. The University of Michigan Final Sentiment for September was revised lower to 55.1 from 55.4, against expectations for an unrevised print, whilst Expectations and Sentiment were revised down to 51.7 (prev. 51.8) and 60.4 (prev. 61.2), respectively. Inflation expectations ticked lower, with 1 year at 4.7% (prev. 4.8%) and the longer-term 5 year at 3.7% from 3.9%. Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said, “Although September’s decline was relatively modest, it was still seen across a broad swath of the population, across age groups, income, and education”, although Hsu adds “a key exception: sentiment for consumers with larger stock holdings held steady, while for those with smaller or no holdings, sentiment decreased.” Hsu added that consumers continue to express frustration over the persistence of high prices, which printed the highest reading in a year. September interviews highlighted the fact that consumers feel pressure both from the prospect of higher inflation as well as the risk of weaker labour markets. Bowman, the Vice Chair of Supervision stood firm in the dove camp, arguing recent data, including benchmark payrolls revisions, show they are at serious risk of already being behind the curve; Should these conditions continue, concerned will need to adjust policy at a faster pace and to a larger degree going forward. Bowman adds that recent data show a materially more fragile labour market, inflation ex-tariffs hovering not far above target. As such, Bowman views now as the time for the FOMC to act decisively and proactively to address decreasing labour market dynamism and emerging signs of fragility. She expects inflation to return to 2% target after one-time adjustment from tariffs. Surprisingly, Bowman argued against the usual data-dependent approach advocated by many central bankers across the globe. “Inflexible, dogmatic view of data dependence gives a backwards-looking view of the economy, guarantees we remain behind the curve”. Fed should consider shifting focus from overweighting the latest data points to a proactive forward-looking approach, Bowman contended. On the balance sheet, she believes that if tilted towards shorter-dated securities, it would offer more flexibility. Bowman prefers the smallest balance sheet possible with reserves closer to scarce than ample. She strongly supports holding only treasuries. Meanwhile, Bowman sees slower population growth and an ageing population as more prominent factors in pulling down the neutral rate. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 1% while Gold ended Friday’s session with again of 0.6%.
To mark my 3250th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 230 points on Friday and is now ahead by 3244 points for September after ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.59% higher at a price of 6643.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 299 points higher for a 0.65% gain at a price of 46,247.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.44% higher at a price of 24,504.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.75% higher
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.88% lower at a price of 44,954.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.31% lower.
The Euro closed 0.27% higher at $1.1692.
The British Pound closed 0.42% higher at $1.3401.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.17% closing at $149.55
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 8 basis points higher at 4.75%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points lower at 2.75%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points higher at 4.17%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.14% higher at $65.72 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.85% higher at $3760.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. Money Supply and Mortgage Approvals at 9.30 am, followed by Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence at 10.00 am. Next, we have U.S. Pending Home Sales at 3.00 pm and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index at 3.30 pm. Finally, we have speeches from Fed Members Waller, Williams and Bostic at 12.30 pm, 6.30 pm and 11.00 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
This week is shaping up to be very important from an economic data perspective, with the potential to set up what could become a major “pain trade” heading into year end. Before addressing that risk, let’s look at the economic developments expected this week. September 30 marks Quarter-End, which often brings liquidity-related shifts. On Tuesday, we will see JOLTS data, with expectations at 7.1 million job openings. This number is notoriously difficult to forecast and is subject to significant revisions. On Wednesday, October 1, the ADP employment report is expected to show 50,000 new jobs. The ISM Manufacturing Index is projected to tick up to 49 from 48.7, while the Prices Paid component is forecast to be roughly flat at 63.8 versus 63.7. Friday brings ISM Services data, expected to decline to 51.8 from 52. Provided the government avoids a shutdown, we will also get the official September jobs report. Expectations are for 50,000 jobs created, up from 22,000 the prior month. The Unemployment Rate is expected to hold at 4.3%, average hourly earnings at 0.3% month over month and 3.7% year over year, with the average workweek steady at 34.2 hours. This series of releases makes for a pivotal week. One early indicator worth highlighting is job postings. Indeed postings have been steadily declining, hitting new lows in September, suggesting continued weakness in job openings despite JOLTS’ more volatile readings. What really sets up the potential pain trade is the Citi Economic Surprise Index, which tracks whether data beats or misses expectations. Since June, the index has trended higher, and over the past couple of weeks, it has risen sharply again. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield has moved higher, suggesting the market is recalibrating toward stronger growth. Historically, the 10-year rate tends to follow the Surprise Index closely. This is important because while sentiment has been focused on weak labor market signals, the Surprise Index and other data suggest the economy may actually be reaccelerating. If so, this implies higher long-term rates and possibly a stronger Dollar—moves the market is not positioned for. GDPNow estimates third-quarter real GDP growth at 3.9%. Adding inflation via the PCE deflator implies nominal growth near 6.2% SAAR, which is very strong. This level is consistent with pre-slowdown growth earlier this year, showing an acceleration back toward the upper end of the range. The jobs report contains a crucial but often overlooked series: the Index of aggregate weekly payrolls. This tracks closely with nominal GDP. In recent months, it pointed to slowing nominal growth around 4.4% year over year, but if growth is indeed reaccelerating, this Index should begin turning higher. Rising wages or workweeks would also confirm. If growth accelerates, long-end rates are too low, which could trigger a bear steepener. Historical examples from the Global Financial Crisis, 2017–2018, and post-COVID show that long-term yields can rise even as the Fed cuts or holds rates, driven by inflation expectations. Current movements in breakeven inflation suggest a similar setup. The long bond (30-year Treasury) has recently bounced off lows and may be poised to move back toward 5% if inflation expectations rise. The Dollar also looks ready to strengthen, with spreads between U.S. and Japanese yields narrowing but the yen failing to appreciate. This either implies skepticism about the BOJ hiking or U.S. rates being too low. Dollar charts show potential bottoms forming against the Yen, Euro, and Canadian Dollar, suggesting broad Dollar strength ahead. For example, USD/CAD shows a triple bottom and possible continuation pattern pointing toward 1.41. The Euro has broken down technically, with risk toward 1.14. The Japanese Yen may move back toward 151. A stronger Dollar could also spill into equity volatility, especially if Canadian dollar weakness revives its past correlation with the VIX. The British Pound is also weakening versus the Dollar, weighed down by domestic factors. Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year yield looks to be breaking its recent downtrend, and the curve (10-year minus 2-year) shows early signs of steepening. All of this points to a potential year-end setup where stronger economic data pushes long-end rates higher, steepens the curve, and strengthens the Dollar—precisely the type of pain trade the market is unprepared for. This would tie in nicely with a sell-off in the S&P for a badly needed correction. The S&P closed higher on Friday following three consecutive down-days for the first time in two months. Buying the S&P on this first sell-off worked well as the market hit my 6585-buy level before rallying to my 6608 T/P level and I am now flat. Subsequently, the S&P hit a low on Thursday afternoon at 6570 before bouncing over 70 Handles. Today, I will continue to be a seller from 6675/6695 with the same 6721 wider ‘Closing Stop’. The S&P has short-term support from 6575/6595 where I will again be a strong buyer with a 6559 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6654. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 6614. If any of these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still flat. I will now lower my Euro sell level to 1.1750/1.1830 with a lower 1.1915 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1670.
Dollar Index
I am still flat. I will now raise my Dollar buy level to 97.00/97.70 with a higher 96.35 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 98.40.
Russell 2000
I am still flat. I will continue to be a seller on any further rally to 2465/2525 with the same 2575 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2420.
FTSE 100
Lat Friday, the FTSE rallied to my sell range for a now 9290 short position. I will look to add to this position on any further move higher to 9360 with a higher 9425 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now raise my T/P level to 9240. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat as the Dow never came close to Thursday’s sell range. Today, I will leave my 46550/46800 sell level unchanged with the same 47005 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 46290. I still have no interest in buying the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Overnight. the NDX rallied to my initial 24610 sell level. I will add to this position at 24780 while my stop will be a ‘Closing Price’ of 24905. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 24490. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
No Change: The Bund has traded in an unbelievable tight 40-point range all last week which is unheard of. I am still long the Bund at 129.00 with the same 129.60 T/P level. I will add to this position at 128.30 while leaving my 127.85 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat as Gold recovered all of last week’s losses, sitting at a price of 3810 this morning. Gold has resistance from 3830/3850 where I will be a small seller with a 3871 ‘Closing Stop’ If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 3805. I still do not want to be long Gold at this time.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver surged last week, closing at an 11-year high leaving the market within touch distance of my $51 target level which was the all-time high made back in May 2011. I am still flat. Silver has support below from 44.00/45.00 where I will be a small buyer with a 42.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 46.20.
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