U.S. Equity Markets rallied for the fourth consecutive week. This is the longest winning streak since June. Both the Dow and Small Cap Russell 2000 led Friday’s gains on plunging economic data which is supporting the trend for more interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, Financial Conditions have done nothing but loosen since Fed Chair Powell mentioned that the ‘’Market is doing the Fed’s job of tightening’’. The main Equity Indexes are now ahead by 9 to 13% since the October lows. This move higher sees the VIX closing at new lows for the year after falling a further 2.5% on Friday, closing at a price of 12.55. It was interesting that Tech stocks underperformed last week which is no surprise given how severely overbought the NASDAQ 100 has become. Treasury Yields closed higher on the week, thanks to the seven-basis point rise in Yields on Friday. The Dollar closed lower for three of the past four weeks. The Dollar is now at three-month lows. Finally, (and it has taken a lot of time given my long position) that Silver outperformed the precious metals ending last week with a gain of 2.5%. Elsewhere. Oil fell 2.50% while Gold ended Friday with a gain of 0.7%.
To mark my 2900th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 72 points on Friday and is now ahead by 837 points for November. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.06% higher at a price of 4559.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 117 points higher for a 0.33% gain at a price of 35,390.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.12% lower at a price of 15,982.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.33% higher.
Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% higher.
Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 0.52% higher at a price of 33,625.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.54% lower.
The Euro closed 0.4% higher at $1.0940.
The British Pound closed 0.8% higher at 1.2608.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.1% closing at $149.40.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 8 basis points higher at 2.64%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 11 basis points higher at 4.27%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 6 basis points higher at 4.47%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.49% lower at $75.18 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.7% higher at $2001.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no Economic data of note from either the U.K. or the Euro-Zone. At 3.00 pm we have U.S. New Home Sales. Finally, at 3.30 pm we have the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P has traded in a narrow range since I posted last Thursday. This should come as no surprise given the fact the U.S. Markets were closed on Thursday and only open for a half-day Friday. There is no change to the technical background for the S&P which remains severely overbought. The 14-Day RSI closed at 72 on Friday while the $BPSPX RSI ended the week at a severely overbought 82 print. History tells us not to be buyers against this backdrop. The S&P has now gone ten days without a 5 EMA reconnect. The Daily 5 EMA is the most common and frequent Moving Average as it tracks a very short time frame by definition. To see it not reconnect for the last ten trading sessions is extremely unusual. We have only seen two 5 EMAs reconnects in 18 trading days. I cannot recall ever seeing this before. From where I sit the market is now becoming unbalanced again and disconnected from its standard functioning which involves 5 EMA reconnects on a regular basis. In my opinion it is only a matter of time before we have at least a small correction. I am still short the S&P from early Thursday morning at a price of 4557. I will continue to add to this position on any further move higher to 4576 with the same 4591 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my T/P level to 4542. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
No Change. I am still flat the Euro as the market never came close to either my sell or buy level over the past 48 trading hours. The Euro has support from 1.0790/1.0850 where I will be a buyer with a 1.0735 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will continue to look to be a seller of rallies. The Euro has resistance from 1.0980/1.1050 where I will be a seller with a higher 1.1105 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
September Dollar Index
Just before Friday’s early New York close, the Dollar hit my 103.40 buy level. I am still long and will continue to look to add to this position at 102.80, while leaving my 102.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will have a T/P level at 103.85. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
It was the correct decision to stay away from the DAX last week as the market surprisingly has had an extremely small trading range. The DAX seems tired to me having rallied 1400 points in just over two weeks. We have resistance from 16110/16200 where I will be a small seller with a tight 16275 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the market at this time. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
No Change. I am still a buyer on any further dip lower to 7340/7410 buy level with a now lower 7285 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still short the Dow from last week at 35280. With the 14-Day RSI closing at 73 on Friday, I am comfortable in being short. I will continue to look to add to this position at 33520 with the same tight 35705 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my T/P level to 35130. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Thankfully the NDX underperformed on Friday as the market sold off to my revised 15948 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members on my 16020 short position and I am still flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 16020/16170 with a wider 16305 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the NDX at this time.
December BUND
Higher Treasury Yields on Friday saw the Bund hit Thursday’s buy range. As a result, I am now long at a price of 130.40. I will add to this position at 129.60 while leaving my 128.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with an updated email for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold finally closed over $2000 on Friday and I am still flat. With Silver finally some life after six weeks trading in a narrow range there is no need to chase the price of Gold higher. Therefore, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1965/1980 with the same 1949 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
For the first time in seven weeks, I am finally in profit on my 24.05 long position as Silver closed in New York on Friday at a price of 24.35. I will now raise my ‘’Closing Stop’’ on this position to 23.35. I will have a T/P level at 25.00. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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