U.S. Equity Markets were choppy on Friday with a lack of tier 1 US data to go off, while question marks were raised on the state of the consumer on the back of poor reports from Nike (NKE) and Lululemon (LULU). Large cap tech was an outperformer, with Apple (AAPL) paring some of Thursday’s big losses post-DoJ lawsuit; Tesla (TSLA) pared its earlier large losses after BBG reports it had trimmed its Chinese output amid slow sales. Small caps (Russell 2000), on the other hand, saw large losses that were sustained. Treasuries bull-flattened amid dovish ECB momentum (EGBs outperformed, weighing on the Euro) and suspected month-end flows, with geopolitics simmering. On the latter, the Russia/Ukraine situation is deteriorating after Russian officials described to domestic press on Friday that the invasion of Ukraine was a “war” for the first time, more pointed than its usual description of it being a “special military operation”. That was followed by what has been reported as a terrorist attack in Moscow (with 137+ reported dead currently), leading to speculation that the attack could preface a retaliation from Russia for whoever it deems responsible. The Dollar saw strong gains, with many central banks seemingly on a path to beating the Fed to the first rate cut. The Chinese Yuan saw notable weakness after a big change in the fix as the currency breached 7.20 to the upside in what is being considered as appetite by Chinese officials to let the currency devalue. German data was stronger than expected and it briefly halted the Euro slide throughout the European session before selling resumed in the U.S. session aided by some dovish ECB remarks. Nagel said the probability is rising that rates will be lowered ahead of the Summer break, President Lagarde was optimistic on inflation and growth, while Scicluna, speaking to Econostream, refused to rule out a cut in April. Holzmann the hawk was on the flip side however, suggesting investors should consider the risk that the ECB does not lower rates this year but noted a rate cut is in preparation, although timing is unclear. As expected, the Bank of England once again opted to stand pat on Interest Rates at 5.25% at last Thursday’s announcement. The slight surprise came via the vote split which saw Haskel and Mann move into the unchanged camp, leading to an 8-1 split with Dhingra the lone dissenter in opting for a cut. Meanwhile, a largely unexpected 25bp rate reduction from the Swiss National Bank, which sparked marked Swiss Franc (CHF) depreciation and a modest broader dovish reaction helped European Equity Markets to outperform the American Indexes since Thursday’s Daily Commentary. Elsewhere, Oil fell 0.54% while a stronger Dollar saw Gold reverse Wednesday’s strong gains, closing lower by 1%.
To mark my 2950th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 280 points on Friday and is now ahead by 1801 points for March. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.14% lower at a price of 5234.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 305 points lower for a 0.77% loss at a price of 39,475.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.1% higher at a price of 18,339.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.03% lower.
Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% higher.
Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 0.18% higher at a price of 40,888.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.89% higher.
The Euro closed 1% lower at $1.0805.
The British Pound closed 1.2% lower at 1.2601.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.1% closing at $151.47.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 11basis points lower at 2.32%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 9 basis points lower at 4.04%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 9 basis points lower at 4.20%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.54% lower at $80.63 a barrel.
Gold closed 1% lower at $2164.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no U.K. or Euro-Zone data of note. At 12.25 pm we have a speech from Fed Member Bostic, followed at 12.30 pm by the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Next we have New Home Sales at 2.00 pm. Finally, we have a speech from Bank of England Member Mann at 2.15 pm.
Cash S&P 500
According to Sentiment Trader.com, the combined Small Trader net long position in the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 and Dow Jones index Futures, Small Traders are now net long over $54 billion of these Futures Contracts which is a record extreme. The current level of bullish bets far exceeds the former extremes that attended the market top in late 2021 and early 2022, the peak in February 2007, when the financials topped at the start of the Great Credit Crisis, and the extreme in March 2001, ten weeks before the top of the Dow Jones Composite Average during the dot-com mania bust. Small Traders are the retail public and historically this cohort do not have a good track record of market timing. The S&P hit a new all-time high at 5261 on Thursday before having a small retracement into Friday’s close on the back of the terrorist attack in Moscow. Given the fact that the Weekly RSI for the S&P is above 81, in my opinion the risk/reward in being long the S&P at current prices is insane. We have caught most of the S&P moves so far this year with the exception of the last rally that started last week from the 5160 area. I am still short the S&P at an average rat of 5217, having emailed my Platinum Members to stay short with no stop. I will now have a ‘’Closing Stop’’ on this position at 5263 while leaving my 5205 T/P level unchanged for now. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
Comments form a number of ECB Members that the ECB are ready to follow the Swiss National Bank and cut rates, saw the Euro get hit hard on Friday. This move lower saw the whole of my buy range triggered for a now 1.0845 average long position. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.0890 while leaving my 1.0745 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
I am still short the Dollar from last week at an average rate of 103.65. The Dollar closed just below my 104.45 ‘’Closing Stop’’ at 104.41 on Friday. I will leave my ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged, while raising my T/P level to 103.45.If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
My 18165 DAX short position from late Wednesday worked well, following comments from the Bundesbank that Germany is now in recession. The DAX fell 100 points on this news, hitting my 18080 T/P level and I am now flat. Incredibly, buyers again ignored the Bundesbank and bought the DAX on Friday, driving the market to new all-time highs above 18230. With the RSI fried to the upside, I will continue to be a seller of rallies. The DAX has resistance from 18320/18420 where I will again be a seller with a 18505 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 18240.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE never came close to Thursday’s buy level, rallying as expected, sitting at 7930 as I go to press. The FTSE has strong resistance from 8010/8080 where I will be a seller with a tight 8135 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will also raise my buy level to 7790/7860 with a higher 7725 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Dow Rolling Contract
Wrong! I certainly paid the price for not taking the 100 points on offer after shorting the Dow on Wednesday before the market surged 400 points on Thursday. Deciding to keep my S&P short position, I covered my 39415 average short position for a large 400-pont loss at 39815 and I am now flat. There is nothing more frustrating in taking a loss only to see the market trade right back to where you were short as happened into Friday’s close. The Dow has resistance from 39650/39900 where I will again be a seller with a 40055 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I am still flat the NDX as the market never came close to Thursday’s buy range. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 18060/18210 with the same tight 17985 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 18300.
March BUND
The Bund has rallied over 100 points since Thursday’s Commentary. This move higher saw my 132.30 T/P level triggered, on my latest 131.94 long position and I am now flat. The Bund has support from 131.90/132.60 where I will again be a buyer with a 131.25 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Late on Friday, Gold sold off to my 2161 buy level with a 2156 low print. I am still long with a now lower 2173 T/P level. I will add to this trade at 2146 with a now lower 2135 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
Having hit a high at 25.75 on Thursday, Silver sold off on Friday, trading the whole of my buy range for a now 24.85 average long position. I will leave my 23.65 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged, while lowering my T/P level to 25.50. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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