U.S. Indices saw choppy trade action on Friday amid quad-witching as participants returned from the Juneteenth market holiday on Thursday, whereby upside was seen in equity futures in response to the two weeks Trump has given himself to decide whether to attack Iran. Friday, however, saw cash equities close lower, amid a few important headlines. Stocks found upside from an Iranian Senior official who said Iran is ready to discuss limitations on its uranium enrichment. The move sparked immediate downside in crude, which has now ultimately pared and also saw a swift reversal as the official quickly added they will undoubtedly reject a zero enrichment proposal. In addition, likely supporting the crude rebound were the talks in Geneva between the E3/EU/Iran, which have seemingly yielded little progress thus far, with the only positive being that discussions will continue. Note, WTI ended the day with slight gains, Brent with notable losses, as the disparity came due to no WTI settlement on Thursday on account of the US market holiday. Aside from geopolitics, two headlines weighed on stocks: 1) Wall Street Journal reporting US prepares action targeting allies’ chip plants in China, 2) Japan scraps US meeting after Washington demands more defence spending, via the Financial Times. Sectors saw mixed performance, with Energy, Staples, and Utilities gaining, while Communications and Materials saw losses. Separately, fixed income was helped by two factors as Fed’s Waller stuck with his very dovish stance, and Philly Fed disappointing. On the former, Waller said their in a position to cut as early as July, and shouldn’t wait for the job market to tank before cutting rates. Meanwhile, Barkin (2027 voter) sees no rush to cut rates, citing nothing urgent seen in the data warranting such a move. In FX, the Dollar haven bid was weighed on by the possible hopes of limitation on uranium enrichment in Iran. GBP was modestly lower against USD following a poor UK Retail Sales report, the Japanese Yen was little bothered by a slightly hotter than expected CPI report, and the Canadian Dollar traded within tight ranges after a disappointing retail sales report. While Trump’s deadline for a decision on Iran is due within two weeks, military action or diplomacy could occur at any time, and as such, participants will be very wary of weekend risk given any possible escalation. The Philly Fed headline was unchanged in June at -4, but expectations were for it to rise to -1, albeit still remain in negative territory. In the breakdown, Employment plunged below zero to -9.8 from +16.5, its lowest value since May 2020, while the inflationary gauge of Prices Paid encouragingly dropped to 41.4 from 59.8. New Orders and Capex dipped to 2.3 (prev. 7.5) and 14.5 (prev. 27.0), respectively, but Shipments rose 21 points to 8.3, its first positive reading since March, with the 6m index tumbling to 18.3 from 47.2. Fed Member Waller was the first Committee member to speak since the blackout, and spoke very dovishly, a stance he has had for a notable while. Waller said central banks should look through tariff effects on inflation, and the Fed is in a position as early as July for cuts. As a reminder, the median dot plot for year-end 2025 had 50bps of cuts. Waller added the Fed has room to bring rates down and then can see what happens with inflation, and not sure if the committee would go along but the data is good, unemployment is low, and inflation is close to target. The dove said the process should start slow to be sure there are no surprises and if there is a shock the Fed could pause. On data, said so far the data has been fine, with no reason to wait much longer to cut, and The Fed has been on pause for six months waiting for an inflation shock that has not arrived. Further still, Waller said the central bank Fed should not wait for the job market to crash in order to cut rates; don’t want to wait for the job market to tank before cutting rates, and tariffs will not be completely passed through, and a 10% tariff on all imports would not have much impact on overall inflation. Meanwhile Barkin conformed to the usual rhetoric we heard from Fed members pre-decision, and also as Powell toed in the press conference on Wednesday. The Richmond Fed President said he sees no rush to cut interest rates and is not ready to dismiss inflation risk from tariffs. Regarding future plans, added nothing urgent in the data warranting a rate cut at this point. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 0.34% while Gold ended Friday’s session with a loss of 1%. Over the weekend we saw escalation in the Iran War as America joined Israel in attacking the nuclear sites. These are the facts that we know so far:
- US President Trump confirmed the launch of “Operation Midnight Hammer”, which involved targeted strikes on Iranʼs nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
- US President Trump warned that “many targets remain,” emphasising that the US had no desire for regime change but threatened larger future strikes if Iran failed to engage diplomatically.
- The Iranian parliament has approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the US launched strikes against the countryʼs nuclear facilities. Iranʼs security body will make the final decision on whether to proceed with the plan, state television reported.
- Iranian regime sources denied any major nuclear material loss from the strikes, implying the sites had been preemptively evacuated. Iranian officials have warned that future actions could target over 20 US bases or naval assets in the region.
To mark my 3200th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 1195 points on Friday and is now ahead by 4400 points for June, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.22% lower at a price of 5967.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 35 points higher for a 0.08% gain at a price of 42,206.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.43% lower at a price of 21,626.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.1% higher.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% lower.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 0.17% lower at a price of 38,336.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.13% lower.
The Euro closed 0.31% higher at $1.1520.
The British Pound closed 0.22% higher at $1.3446.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.51% closing at $146.09.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 5 basis points higher at 4.54%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 2 basis points higher at 2.52%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points higher at 4.40%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.3% higher at $74.97 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.05% higher at $3389.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German, Euro-Zone, U.K. and U.S. Global Manufacturing PMI at 8.30 am, 9.00 am, 9.30 am and 2.45 PM respectively. Next, we have Existing Home Sales at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have speeches from Fed Members Bowman, Kugler and Williams at 3.05 pm, 7.30 pm and 7.35 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
It does not matter what happens in the world as buyers continue to buy every dip. Bears would have hoped that America joining Israel in attacking Iran over the weekend would have seen the S&P open lower overnight and expect follow through to the downside but instead the opening price at 5913 was just 3 Handles below the 5910 low print before rallying 50 Handles. Despite Market Cap to GDP at 200% and equity valuations close to their highest valuations ever with debt levels that are unsustainable, the S&P 500 continues to attract aggressive buying on every dip. On Thursday all three American Indexes hit my buy range including the S&P at a price of 5919. Subsequently, the S&P rallied on Friday to a high at 6018 before hitting this morning’s 5910 low print. As I wanted to reduce risk on Thursday given the number of ‘Open’ positions I exited my 5919 long position at 5934. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the S&P again which we did last night on the re-open at a price of 5913 before the market rallied to my 5953 T/P level and I am now flat. It is incredible that the S&P is trading less than 3% from its February all-time high of 6147 given everything that is happening in the world. We still have no trade deal announcements despite the fact that the July 9 deadline is just three weeks from now. Every day we hear that trade deals are imminent yet no follow through while the American Indexes continue to ignore any negativity. Today, I will again be a buyer of the S&P from 5890/5910 with a lower 5875 ‘Closing Stop’. I will not chase the S&P lower as I continue to be a seller on any further rally to 6025/6045 with a 6061 ‘Closing Stop’. If any of the above views change I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
My Euro plan worked well as the Euro rallied on Friday to my 1.1525 sell level before trading lower overnight to my revised 1.1460 T/P level and I am now flat. It looks increasing likely that the Euro has put in a meaningful top at 1.1620. This morning the Euro trading higher at a price of 1.1510 as I go to post. Today, I will be a seller from 1.1540/1.1610 with the same tight 1.1665 ‘Closing Stop’.
Dollar Index
The Dollar traded lower to my 98.60 buy level. I am still long with a lower 99.30 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position at 98.00 while leaving my 97.35 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
No Change”. The Russell has short-term support from 2010/2080 where I will continue to be a buyer with the same 1965 ‘Closing Stop’. I no longer want to be short the market at this time. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2130.
FTSE 100
Finally, we saw some bearish price action in the FTSE following Friday’s late 100-point move lower into the New York close. I am still flat with the FTSE trading at 8735 this morning. The FTSE has strong support below from 8600/8680 where I will be a buyer with a 8535 tight ‘Closing Stop’. I no longer want to be short the FTSE at this time. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 8740.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well as the market sold off to my 41790-buy level on Thursday before rallying to my 42070 T/P level and I am now flat. Overnight, the Dow hit a low of 41760 before bouncing over 300 points. Today, I will again be a buyer of the Dow on any dip lower to 41600/41850 with the same 41395 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 42040. I still do not want to be a seller of the market at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well as the market traded the whole of my buy range on Thursday for a 21495 average long position before rallying to my revised 21620 T/P level. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the NDX which we did last night on the re-open at a price of 21413 before the market rallied to my 21588 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer of the NDX on any further dip lower to 21320/21470 with a lower 21195 ‘Closing Stop’. Just like the Dow above I have no interest in shorting the NDX at this time.
December BUND
I am still flat the Bund as I continue to be a small buyer on any further move lower to 129.40/130.20 with a higher 128.65 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 130.80. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold never came close to Thursday’s sell range which is surprising given the escalation of geopolitical risk. In my opinion everyone is long Gold and there are not many buyers left. Today, I will lower my Gold sell level to 3420/3440 with a lower 3461 ‘Closing Stop’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 3397.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still long Silver from last week at 36.30. I will add to this position on any further move lower to 35.30 while leaving my 33.95 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 36.80. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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