Following another volatile trading session U.S. Equity Markets finished Friday’s trading session lower, led by the NASDAQ falling 1.14%, capping a miserable week for Technology Stocks. According to the Wall Street Journal ( WSJ), a Russian attack on Ukraine could be imminent… The publication cited officials within President Joe Biden’s administration. They said military operations could begin within the next few days. The maneuver would involve cyberattacks, ballistic missiles, tanks, and fighter jets. This was the culmination of growing tensions over the past few weeks. And it spooked markets, with investors selling on the uncertainty. This week, Biden is set to meet with Russia’s Foreign Minister to continue diplomatic talks. There were also Federal Reserve speakers making headlines. New York Fed President John Williams joined the chorus of Fed speakers calling for a March rate hike, though he said future rate hikes need to happen gradually. But Chicago Fed President Charles Evans called for a “significant adjustment” to the Fed’s current policy stance. Again, the declines outweighed the advances. DraftKings (DKNG), Redfin (RDFN), and Roku (ROKU) were big decliners on earnings-related shocks. Ford Motor (F) was one of the few stocks in the green, on reports that it could look to spin off its electric vehicle unit. Within the S&P 500, 10 of the 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets closed lower. The Russian government, in response to U.S. claims, said it does not intend to invade Ukraine nor does it have any plans. Of course, this news was later outweighed by the renewed concerns posed by the WSJ. Like in the U.S., there was also a lot of central bank chatter… European Central Bank (“ECB”) Chief Economist Philip Lane adjusted his outlook on inflation, saying the metric may remain higher for longer than previously expected. Meanwhile, ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said he is in favour of ending the central bank’s bond-purchase programme in the third quarter. In Asia, Japan’s Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) figures for January were weaker than anticipated, with the pace of growth slowing compared with December, diminishing the need for interest-rate hikes. Chinese state-run media said banks in the eastern part of the country began to lower mortgage down payments in an effort to boost housing demand. South Korean President Moon Jae-in called on lawmakers to quickly pass an extra-budget bill to support small businesses hurt by COVID-19 restrictions. Elsewhere, Oil rose 0.46% while Bitcoin fell 2% with risk assets.
To mark my 2500th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 370 points on Friday and is now ahead by 4459 points for February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.72% lower at a price of 4348.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 232 points lower for a 0.68% loss at a price of 34,079.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.14% lower at a price of 14,009.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.2% lower.
Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5%.
Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 0.41% lower at a price of 27,122.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% higher.
The Euro closed 0.2% lower at $1.1328.
The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.3603.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.1%, closing at $115.05.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed five basis points lower at 0.18%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed eight basis points lower at 1.39%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed four basis points lower at 1.92%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.46% lower at $90.05 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.24% lower at $1,894.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German PPI at 7.00am. Next, we have German, Euro-Zone and U.K. Markit Services PMI at 8.30 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. Finally, we have a speech from Fed Member Bowman at 4.15 pm.
Cash S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well with the market hitting my sell level at 4415 before trading lower to my 4345 buy level on what turned out to be another volatile trading session. I covered my short position at my 4403 T/P level before covering my long position at my 4358 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Despite the volatility, the VIX closed 1% lower. This may be a clue that we are near a decent rally given how oversold the various charts after a volatile 2022 so far. Internally the market is holding in as shown by the McClellan Oscillator which only weakened a small bit on Friday with a – 46 print. The S&P has strong support from 4305/4325 where I will again be an aggressive buyer with no stop. Given how oversold the markets are trading I do not want to be short the market at this time.
EUR/USD
I am still flat the Euro. I will now lower my sell level to 1.1380/1.1430 with a lower 1.1475 stop. I still do not want to be long the Euro at this time.
March Dollar Index
No Change. The Dollar has resistance from 96.20/96.70 where I will again be a seller with the same tight 97.05 stop.
Cash DAX
The DAX missed my buy level by five points before having a small 70 point rally into the New York close and I am still flat. I will now lower my buy level to 14810/14900 with a lower 14745 stop.
Cash FTSE
On Friday morning the FTSE rallied to my 7550 T/P level on my latest 7525 long position and I am still flat. The FTSE has support from 7390/7450 where I will again be a buyer with a 7325 wider stop. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 34100 buy level before rallying 200 points. This move higher saw my 34185 revised T/P level triggered and I am still flat. The Dow is closed today for the President’s Day Holiday but I would still expect decent two-way volatility in the Globex Market. The Dow has support from 33700/33900 where I will again be a buyer with a 33495 wider stop. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX again led Friday’s session lower, falling 1.14%. I am still long at 14360 with no stop. I will look to add to this position this week but for now I will leave my 14420 T/P level unchanged on my 14360 average long position from last Thursday. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March BUND
No Change. I am still flat, looking to buy the market on any dip lower to 165.20/165.80 with no stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 166.20.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold traded in a narrow range on Friday and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1855/1870 with a wider 1839 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver also traded in a narrow range on Friday and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level slightly to 23.10/23.70 with no stop and a 24.15 T/P level if triggered.
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