U.S. Indexes closed higher on Friday with the S&P, NASDAQ 100 and Dow Jones all posting gains; however, the RUSSELL saw further pressure. The regional banking ETF had pared some of the prior day’s losses following woes at ZION and WAL, but regional bank earnings on Friday were strong and helped with the reversal in sentiment. Also supportive of the risk-on trade was commentary on China from US President Trump, who said “no” when asked if he thinks the high tariffs on China will stay, noting they get along well with China and he will be meeting Chinese President Xi in two weeks. Elsewhere, T-notes were sold across the curve while Gold saw notable pressure, falling from a peak of USD 4,378/oz to a low of USD 4,187/oz, before ending the week back above USD 4,200/oz. Oil prices saw choppy trade but ultimately settled little changed. In FX, the both the Canadian Dollar and Antipodes outperformed while the U.S. Dollar saw slight upside. T-notes sold off on the dialled down regional bank woes and China optimism, but in funding markets, SOFR remained above the target for the FFR in the latest data (Thursday), albeit the standard repo facility saw no participation on Friday. Fed Member Musalem highlighted that he could support a path with another cut if more risks to the jobs market emerge and inflation is contained. He sees limited space before cuts would make policy accommodative, noting policy is somewhere between restrictive and neutral. He said it is important for the Fed to be cautious right now, and it is premature to say what comes with FOMC meetings after October. He noted how tariffs will work their way through the economy into mid-2026. He suggested that by H2 2026 the economy will move back towards 2% inflation but needs policy to lean against inflation. On services inflation, he said it has been at a high level and needs more work to get it lower. Musalem added that consumption from all income groups has been strong, but purchasing power is still an issue for many. On the labour market, Musalem said there is not an imminent problem for the labour market, but job market risks have increased, and data suggest the risk of high unemployment is increasing. He reiterated his breakeven rate of 30-80k, but warned it could go below zero, and the unemployment rate may not move. Finally, Fed Member Kashkari said it is too soon to know the effect of tariffs on inflation, and the impact of tariffs is taking longer to be felt than he had guessed. He expects services inflation to trend down, and it is possible that goods inflation could spill over, with most folks noting they are still concerned about inflation. Added that the job market is slowing down, and they are likely betting the economy is slowing more than it really is. Regarding the balance of the mandate, the Minneapolis President said there is more risk of a labour market negative surprise than an uptick in inflation but noted the Fed prioritising labour market over inflation control could lead to bad outcomes for workers. On the shutdown, as expected, he quipped that it is challenging to read signals without core government data, and the longer it lasts, the less confident they are when reading the economy correctly. Elsewhere, Oil closed 0.14% higher while Gold finally saw some profit-taking closing lower by 2%.
To mark my 3275th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was made 1170 points on Friday and is now ahead by 4845 points for October after closing September with a gain of 3774 points after ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.53% higher at a price of 6664.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 238 points higher for a 0.52% gain at a price of 46,190.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.65% higher at a price of 24,817.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.95% lower.
Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.8% lower.
Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 1.44% lower at a price of 47,582.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.21% higher.
The Euro closed 0.41% lower at $1.1655.
The British Pound closed 0.12% higher at $1.3427.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.32% closing at $150.54
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 1 basis points lower at 4.54%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 2 basis points higher at 2.59%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points higher at 4.01%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.14% higher at $57.54 a barrel.
Gold closed 2.01% lower at $4248.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German PPI at 8.00 am followed by the Euro-Zone Current Account at 9.00 am. The other data of note to be released today is U.S. Business Inventories at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The past two trading sessions have seen wild swings in the market with plenty of two-way price action which worked great for my Platinum Service. On Thursday the S&P hit my 6710 sell level before trading lower to my 6676 T/P level. The sell-off continued lower to my 6618 buy level before rallying to my 6639 T/P level. Subsequently, I bought the S&P again at 6600 before the market rallied to my 6618 T/P level and I am now flat. Unfortunately, The S&P moved too quickly on Friday morning for me to get a long position on board before we rallied 0ver 100 Handles off the 6535 low print into the close. This move lower on Friday morning saw the 50 Day Moving Average tagged which in itself saw some aggressive buying. Turning to the Funding Markets, the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) jumped to 4.3% on Thursday—above levels seen before the Fed’s recent rate cuts. While Friday’s reading may ease slightly, the elevated SOFR underscores tight liquidity conditions in the overnight market. The spread between SOFR and the interest on reserve balances (IORB) has reached historically high levels, as has SOFR’s spread to the effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) at 19 basis points—levels rarely seen since COVID. This widening reflects tightening liquidity, driven in part by heavy Treasury bill and coupon issuance. Notably, the effective Federal Funds Rate itself ticked higher to 4.11% on Friday, up from 4.08% following the last Fed cut. Though seemingly minor, this autonomous movement—occurring three times since mid-September—has historically been rare outside of Fed policy actions and points to growing stress in funding markets. Further strain could emerge with Treasury settlement dates on October 21 and 23. Standing repo facility (SRF) usage has risen around prior settlement dates, reflecting temporary liquidity shortages. If this pattern continues, SRF usage may spike again this week, signalling renewed funding tightness. Such liquidity drains have direct implications for risk assets, including equities and crypto proxies like Bitcoin. Broader market indicators reinforce this picture. Breadth remains weak—seen in the underperformance of the equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP) and deteriorating regional banks and private equity stocks. Liquidity-sensitive names like Wingstop have struggled, and even large-cap leaders such as Meta are testing key support zones. The market appears to be straining to hold together amid diminishing liquidity. Dispersion readings remain elevated heading into earnings season, suggesting that volatility across individual stocks is still high relative to the Index. As earnings progress and dispersion trades unwind, correlations will likely rise, typically pressuring markets further. The ratio of SKU to VIX—a gauge comparing tail risk to near-term volatility—has also begun to decline, a pattern often preceding major market reversals seen before COVID, in 2008, and during the 2021–2022 peaks. Altogether, the setup points to an environment of expanding volatility, constrained liquidity, and increased downside risk. If history is any guide, the coming weeks could bring significant market turbulence as liquidity pressures and volatility dynamics converge. However, severe oversold technical signals like the $NYSI making shorting the S&P for any length of time challenging as we saw with Friday’s aggressive rally off the morning lows. The S&P has resistance from 6705/6725 where I will be a small seller with a 6741 tight ‘Closing Stop’. The S&P has support below from 6590/6610 where I will again be a buyer with a 6569 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6682. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 6634. If any of these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The Euro rallied to my 1.1675 sell level. I am still short with a now higher 1.1620 T/P level. I will add to this position at 1.1735 while leaving my 1.1795 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
No Change: I am still long the Dollar at 98.70 with the same 99.25 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position at 98.00 while leaving my 97.25 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members
Russell 2000
On Friday morning the Russell traded lower to my 2450 T/P level on my latest 2480 short position and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 2485/2555 with a higher 2605 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2440. 2450.
FTSE 100
The FTSE never came close to Thursday’s sell range before trading lower. This is a long overdue correction given how overbought the FTSE is trading. I will now lower my sell level to 9450/9520 with a lower 9585 ‘Closing Stop’. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well as the market sold off to my 45900-buy level before rallying to my revised 46170 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning, the Dow is trading at a price of 46260. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 45700/45950 with the same 45495 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 46220. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well as the market sold off to my 24580-buy level before rallying to my 24740 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 24500/24660 with the same 24295 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 24780.
December BUND
The Bund never came close to Thursday’s buy range and I am still flat. Given how low Bund Yields are trading I am reluctant to chase the market higher. Therefore, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 128.90/129.70 buy level with the same 128.15 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 130.30.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still short at an average price of 4059 with no stop. Gold hit a high on Friday morning at 4381 before falling $200. If it was not for my Gold trading this month we would be having a near record October. Today, I will now raise my exit level to a loss at 4130 and reassess if triggered. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 48.80/49.80 with a higher 47.15 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 51.30.
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