U.S. Equity Markets finished rangebound on Friday in what turned out to be one of the quietest trading sessions of the year to date. We had no tier one economic releases and no major incremental newsflow which saw the S&P 500 traverse sideways throughout most of the session. The sold release was the U.S. Leading Index for April and disappointed expectations. The only asset class to show any momentum on Friday was Precious Metals where both Gold and Silver surged, with the rally gaining more traction overnight. Gold is close to all-time highs this morning while Silver is back above $30. Yesterday a helicopter carrying Iranian President Raisi and Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian crashed due to adverse weather conditions. This morning Iranian media has confirmed the death of President Raisi and the Foreign Minister in a helicopter crash on the way back from an official visit to Azerbaijan.
To mark my 2975th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 45 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1034 points for May, having finished April with a gain of 4010 points after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.12% higher at a price of 5303.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 134 points higher for a 0.34% gain at a price of 40,003.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.06% lower at a price of 18,546.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.13% lower.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.5% higher.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 0.73% higher at a price of 39,069.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.03% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.0869.
The British Pound closed 0.1% higher at 1.2701.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.6% closing at $155.66.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 9 basis points higher at 2.52%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 6 basis points higher at 4.13%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 8 basis points higher at 4.42%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.2% gain at $80.04 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.3% higher at $2416.10 an ounce.
Today on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the Euro-Zone or the U.K. However, we do have a number of Fed speakers with Bostic, Waller, Barr and Jefferson speaking at 1.45 pm, 2.00 pm, 2.05 pm and 3.30 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P just missed my initial 5328 sell level on Thursday with a 5326 high print before falling over 30 Handles and I am still flat. The S&P traded in a 10-Handle range on Friday before having a small rally overnight. Given how short-term overbought the S&P is for all the reasons that I outlined in Thursday’s commentary, I will now lower my S&P sell level to 5324/5340 with a lower 5355 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The 14 Day Weekly RSI closed at 69 again on Friday night while the top of the Weekly Bollinger Band is much higher at 5378. The S&P could well move to this level before a more meaningful correction ensues. The $SPY has now closed higher for 11 Consecutive trading sessions. This has never happened before, with the previous win streak stopping at eight – which was the top of the bull market way back in 2007. Hence, we are starting a vertical melt up with no two-way price discovery. I am not comfortable in buying the S&P at these levels. However, if the S&P closed Tuesday’s Gap it will attract strong buying. Therefore, I will continue to be a buyer from 5255/5270 with the same 5239 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 5312. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 5288.
EUR/USD
Currency Markets have barely moved since Thursday’s update, and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer of the Euro on any dip lower to 1.0760/1.0840 with the same 1.0695 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Euro. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar. This morning the Dollar is trading 0.1% higher at 104.50. The Dollar is oversold now. We have short-term support from 103.00/103.70 where I will be a buyer with a 102.45 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Dollar at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
While the American Indexes have been quiet to firm, the German DAX traded heavy. This move lower since Thursday saw the whole of my buy range triggered for a now 18705 average long position. This morning, the DAX rallied to my revied 18750 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members on Friday and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 18580/18660 with a now lower 18495 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Despite how heavy the DAX is trading, I still do not want to be short the market at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with an new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
Incredibly the FTSE has traded in just a 40-point range since last Thursday’s Daily Commentary. I am still short at an average rate of 8380 with the same 8320 T/P level. I will now add to this position again on any further rally to 8500 with the same no stop policy for now. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
Friday’s late Dow rally means the Dow has now closed higher for five consecutive weeks. This optimistic extreme saw the VIX close at a 4 ½ year low at a price of 11.99 on Friday. Pessimism and fear are what create market lows. Today, the exact opposite conditions are what currently prevail. I am still short the Dow from early Thursday morning at a price of 39920. I will continue to look to add to this position at 40170 while leaving my 40395 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 39830. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
No Change: I am still short the NDX at an average rate of 18385 with the same no stop policy. With the NDX having risen 9.4% in three weeks, I have decided to hold this short position for now. I will have a T/P level on this position at 18320. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March BUND
This morning, the Bund hit my second buy level at 130.60 for a now 130.95 average long position. I will now lower my T/P level to 131.40 while leaving my 129.85 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the Above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold continues to surge, trading above $2440 this morning. Although Gold is short-term overbought I have no interest in trying to short the market. Gold has support from 2395/2410. I will now raise my buy level to this area with a higher 2379 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver has continued to spike higher, trading at 31.80 this morning. Remember Silver’s all-time high occurred way back in May 2011 at a price of $52, so there is plenty of room for Silver to play catchup with Gold. Today, I will raise my buy level to 30.50/31.20 with a higher 29.75 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’.
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