U.S. Equity Markets closed mixed on Friday following a volatile trading session on the last Quadruple Expiration for the year. The Dow again led the gains hitting a fresh all-time high during the session. Fed Member Goolsbee did not rule out a rate cut in March and said the Fed may need to shift focus to jobs from inflation. Meanwhile according to Reuters, ECB policymakers do not expect to change the message on steady rates before its March Meeting and that any rate cut before June will be difficult to achieve. Elsewhere, Oil closed flat while Gold ended Friday with a loss of 0.50%.
To mark my 2900th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 470 points on Friday and is now ahead by 787 points for December after ending November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.01% lower at a price of 4719.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 56 points higher for a 0.15% gain at a price of 37,305.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.52% higher at a price of 16,623.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.008% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.64% lower at a price of 32,758.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.63% higher.
The Euro closed 0.2% higher at $1.0894.
The British Pound closed 0.4% higher at 1.2680.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.4% closing at $142.17.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 13 basis points lower at 2.04%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 19 basis points lower at 3.68%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 7 basis points lower 3.94%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.21% higher at $71.43 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.5% lower at $2019.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the German IFO Survey at 9.00 am. Both the ECB’s Schnabel and Lane are speaking at 1.30 pm and 2.55 pm respectively. Finally, we have the U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P closed higher for the seventh consecutive week. This is unprecedented with very little two-way price action. Indeed, the biggest bubble years have seen more two-way price action than this, be in 1999 or even 2021 during times of zero interest rates and record money printing. These two years had some sort of pullback action in December unlike 2023. History tells us that vertical moves like we are having now in the American Indexes end in corrections, not just pullbacks. However, with Christmas next week this makes it a more tricky exercise and the usual proper correction may not occur until January. This is the most vertical rally that I can recall ever seeing. It is as if the Fed Just launched QE given the loosening of Financial Conditions as shown by the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index. In 2017 the tax cuts led to another vertical rally which was followed by a 10% correction in early 2018. The Dow RSI closed over 85 on Friday which has only happened twice in the last fifty years. Both events ultimately produced a correction, but both ended up being buys for new highs to come which is still my outlook. The $BPSPX RSI closed over 87 on Friday which is in la la land here. Everything is screaming overbought which could roll-over at any stage hence my strategy of selling rallies. Interestingly, the S&P is now seen the largest extension above the upper Bollinger Band in many years. My S&P plan worked well on Thursday and Friday generating 550 points from the three trades that I did as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 4728/4744 with a 4761 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
The Euro has had a wild ride since Thursday’s Daily Commentary, hitting a post ECB high at 1.1020 before selling off aggressively on Friday. This morning the Euro is back to where was on Thursday when I last marked prices at a price of 1.0890. The Euro has support from 1.0740/1.0820, where I will continue to be a buyer with the same 1.0695 ‘’ Closing Stop’’.
Dollar Index
The Dollar has reversed all of Thursday’s fall, trading at 102.60 as I go to press. I am still long from last Wednesday at an average rate of 102.80 with the same 101.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my T/P level to 103.10. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
My latest 16970 short DAX position worked well as shortly after I posted on Thursday, the DAX sold off to my 16870 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning, the DAX is trading lower at 16700. As a result, the DAX is trading 300 points lower from the highs last Thursday morning. Will this reversal be significant? The problem is every single key day Reversal this year has been reversed within a few trading sessions. The DAX has resistance from 16850/17000 where I will again be a seller with a lower 17105 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the DAX at this time.
Cash FTSE
My latest 7700 short FTSE position also worked well as the market traded lower on Thursday afternoon to my 7630 T/P level and I am now flat. Even the massive sell-off in U.K. Gilt Yields could not support the FTSE on Friday, with the market trading lower at 7570 as I go to press. The FTSE has resistance from 7630/7700 where I will again be a seller with a lower 7755 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
Wrong! I was stopped out of my latest 36845 average short position on Thursday evening at 37195. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to sell the Dow again at a price of 37390. After this sell level was triggered, the Dow sold off to my 37150 T/P level. Just before the close on Friday, the Dow rallied to my third sell level at 37280. With the 14 Day RSI closing on Friday at 85, I am comfortable in holding this position with a 37095 T/P level. I will add to this position on any further move higher to 37530 with a tight 37705 ‘’ Closing Stop’’. Internally the market was extremely weak on Friday as shown by the McClellan Oscillator which fell from Thursday’s +205 print, to close at +113 on Friday night. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
No Change. I am still short from last Wednesday at an average rate of 16447. I will leave my 16705 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now have a T/P level at 16360 on this position. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
Wrong! Unfortunately, the Bund stopped me out of my latest 135.65 average short position on the close on Friday at 137.05 and I am now flat. The Bund is severely overbought and due a correction as too much good news in my opinion is now priced into the market. The Bund has resistance from 137.35/138.15 where I will again be a seller with a 139.05 higher wider Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 136.40. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold was weak on Friday, but crucially still managed to close over the now key $2000 support level. Today, I will now lower my buy level slightly to 1990/2005 while leaving my 1979 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still long Silver from two weeks ago at an average price of 24.40 with the same 25.05 T/P level. This morning, Silver is trading at 23.90. I will continue top have no stop on this position. In my opinion, Silver is one of the cheapest asset classes in Global Markets at this time.
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