U.S. Indices closed mixed on Friday with outperformance in the NASDAQ 100 as Communication and Tech names outperformed, while the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 were little changed, and the Dow underperformed. The Dow was weighed on by retailers (WMT, PG) after a woeful Retail Sales report in the US. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq was propped up by more gains in Nvidia (NVDA), and Airbnb (ABNB) shares outperformed in the Index after strong earnings. T-Notes were bid in response to the weak retail sales report, which appears to show the pre-tariff spend boom has taken a pause while cold weather and LA fires are also to blame. The report hit the Dollar while antipodes outperformed ahead of the RBA and RBNZ this week. Energy prices were choppy, peaking after comments regarding maximum pressure on Iran from US Treasury Secretary Bessent, who said they want to cut Iran oil exports to 100k BPD. Nonetheless, more optimism regarding Ukraine and Russia peace sent crude lower, settling in the red. Ukraine President Zelensky said he will meet with Russian President Putin when he has a plan with the US. Gold prices sold off heavily, back to under USD 2,900/oz after testing record highs earlier in the session, where a weaker Dollar, soft US data and falling Bond Yields were not enough to support the yellow metal with perhaps profit taking occurring ahead of the long weekend with US President’s Day on Monday. January Retail Sales were weak, the headline declined by 0.9% M/M, a deeper decline than the expected -0.1%, although the prior was revised up to 0.7% from 0.4%. The core measure, ex autos, declined by 0.4%, despite expectations for a 0.3% gain while the prior was also revised up to 0.7% from 0.4%. Ex autos and gas declined by 0.5%, while the prior was revised up to 0.5% from 0.3%. The disappointing report in January shows the consumer has slowed down its spending at the start of 2025, with the end of 2024 boosted by fears of incoming tariffs. Pantheon Macroeconomics highlights that the pre-tariff sales boom is already fading. Regarding GDP, the control group, a better gauge of consumer spending, was also weak as it fell by 0.8%, well below the 0.3% forecast, with the prior revised up to 0.8% from 0.7%. ING notes that cold weather and LA fires certainly played a role in the poor start of 2025 for consumer spending, adding that confusion over tariff timing is also having an impact, although Zelensky did admit he does not think the US has a plan for peace in Ukraine yet, but that Ukraine is ready to move as fast as possible towards real peace. Import price rose 0.3% in January (exp. 0.4%), the highest rise in nine months, after seeing an upward revision to 0.2% from 0.1% in December. Import fuel prices rose 3.2%, driven by higher prices for petroleum and Natural Gas, after a 1.7% increase in December. Ex-fuel import price ticked up 0.1% for the third consecutive month in January; Higher prices for nonfuel industrial supplies and materials; capital goods; and foods, feeds, and beverages in January more than offset lower prices for automotive vehicles and consumer goods. Export prices soared 1.3% (exp. 0.3%, rev. 0.5%), the largest monthly rise seen since May 2022. Driving the move higher was higher non-agricultural export prices (+3.5%) which more than offset the lower agricultural (-0.2%) export prices. Industrial Production rose 0.5% in January, above the expected 0.3%, with the prior revised higher to 1% from 0.9%. Manufacturing output surprisingly dipped 0.1% (exp. +0.1%, prev. 0.5%), which was mainly due to a sharp 5.2% m/m decline in motor vehicle & parts, while Capacity Utilisation ticked higher to 77.8% from 77.5%. Capital Economics notes the rise in IP is not as good as it looks as it was driven by a weather-related surge in utilities and a further post-strike recovery in aerospace and parts output. Highlighting this, Aerospace & parts manufacturing rose by 6% and Utilities output soared by 7.2%. Ahead, CapEco notes, despite some improvement in recent months, survey-based manufacturing activity indicators remain a little downbeat, and with the post-strike normalisation in aerospace and parts production nearly completed, manufacturing output is likely to remain close to stagnant.
To mark my 3150th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 485 points on Friday and is now ahead by 2470 points for February. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Recent Comments