U.S. Indices closed higher on Friday with the majority of sectors firmer, Tech, Communication and Financials outperformed, while Real Estate, Utilities and Industrials lagged. US President Trump announced just before the close on Thursday that CEA Chair Miran will be the replacement for Fed Governor Kugler until the end of January, giving Trump more time to think of who he wants as the next Fed Chair – Waller is seen as a favourite. On trade, Trump said that there will be no tariff talks with India until things get resolved, while after meetings between US and Japan, Japan said they have been able to confirm the non-stacking stance on tariffs from the US and it will refund Japan any extra tariffs retroactively going back to 7th August. There were also reports India paused plans to buy US arms, but this was later denied by the Indian MoD. Meanwhile, Brazil is reportedly implementing a four-pronged strategy to respond to the tariff hike by the US on Brazil. Crude prices settled flat but with notable weakness seen in response to reports that the US and Russia are planning a Ukraine deal to cement Russian territorial gains, however the move did pare by settlement – perhaps as participants thought Zelensky is unlikely to accept such demands. Spot gold prices were flat but in volatile trade as FT reported that the US hit one-kilo gold bars with tariffs in a blow to Switzerland. However, a WH official later announced it will clarify misinformation on gold tariffs, clarifying that imports of gold bars should not face tariffs, seeing spot gold tumble, before paring. T-Notes were lower across the curve with weakness led by the long-end, following a weak 30 Year Treasury Auction offering on Thursday, marking three tails in this weeks supply. FX price action was rather mundane, but the Dollar is benefitting from the higher yields, which saw the Japanese Yen lag. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar saw some marginal weakness after a soft Canadian jobs report. Elsewhere, Oil closed 1.25% lower while Gold was higher ending Friday’s session with a gain of 0.8%.
To mark my 3225th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 1078 points last week and is now ahead by 1078 points for August after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.78% higher at a price of 6389.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 206 points lower for a 0.47% gain at a price of 44,175.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.95% higher at a price of 23,611.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.25% higher.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% higher.
Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 1.85% higher at a price of 41,820.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.14% lower.
The Euro closed 0.41% lower at $1.1640.
The British Pound closed 0.31% lower at $1.3450.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.32% closing at $147.71.
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 3 basis points lower at 4.61%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 2 basis points lower at 2.69%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 8 basis points lower at 4.29%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.25% lower at $63.88 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.81% higher at $3396.10 an ounce.
An unusual day as we have no Economic data of note to be released on either side of the Atlantic while Japan is closed for a Bank Holiday.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P hit a low post last Friday’s NFP release at 6211 before surging almost 200 Handles. The biggest stocks protected with $AAPL and $NVDA exempt from the chip tariffs, all it took was promises of hundreds of billions of investments, how, when and what it actually means who can tell? Apple will somehow invest $600 billion in the U.S. in the next four years when its total capex in the past four years was $43 billion. This announcement helped Apple to close higher by 5% on Friday. But the main message: The biggest are protected and hence it adds to the ever widening and extreme gap between the top 10 and the rest of the market universe. The S&P 500 basically now just another $NDX derivative. There is no diversification. And as these top stocks keep driving everything higher it masks everything on the signal charts as the bulls have now regained control of all the main Moving Averages despite dreadful internals. Adding to the complexity and madness of the current state of the stock market is the fact that the $NYSI is close to maximum oversold and the $BPSPX deeply in the red. This means that if the S&P does correct it will not take much of a move lower to be deeply oversold despite the fact we closed on Friday less than 0.4% from all-time highs. The recent 3.5% fall has now recovered making it extremely difficult to be short the market for any length of time. The VIX got crushed on Friday closing near the lows of the year after a 9% fall. Market valuations, market concentration, everything getting ever more extreme all the while markets continue to ignore the real-world negative impacts of these tariffs now coming into effect. It is quite the scene. When anything will matter other than liquidity we will only know after the fact. Based on the latest chart constructs it seems today is a last stand again for sellers or all this may well again lift to new highs for nothing is standing in the way unless some Moving Averages’ are lost. Last week was a melt-up as the previous week’s sell-off never happened. Two Quarterly red candles since the October 2022 bottom and both of these red candles were just basic quarterly 5EMA tags. April’s dip below so quickly erased it meant nothing. This is how one-way markets have been since the Global Financial Crisis. The Covid crash barely even visible, the 2022 tightening cycle carefully managed and ended when it risked a breakdown. And so the broader theme remains the same: Ever wider wealth inequality, the rich keep getting richer and ever more debt and liquidity fuels it all. My S&P plan worked well while I was away as the market hit my 6222-buy level before rallying to my revised 6266 T/P level. Subsequently I went short again at a price of 6395 before covering this position at 6382 and I am now flat. Today, I will continue to be a seller from 6411/6431 with a 6451 ‘Closing Stop’. The S&P has support below from 6310/6330 where I will again be a buyer with a 6289 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6283. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 6358. If any of these levels change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The Euro has witnessed plenty of two-way price action so far in August. Post last Friday’s NFP release the Euro traded lower to my 1.1390 buy level before rallying to my 1.1530 T/P level and I am now flat. The Euro is trading at 1.1670 this morning. We have short-term resistance from 1.1720/1.1800 where I will again be a seller with a 1.1875 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1640.
Dollar Index
The Dollar never came close to last week’s sell range and I am still flat. The Dollar is trading over 2.2% weaker since I marked prices on July 31. The Dollar has short-term support from 97.50/98.30 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 96.75 ‘Closing Stop’. I no longer want to be short the Dollar at this time. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 99.00.
Russell 2000
Given the sell-off in the Russell Index I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the Russell at a price of 2172 before the market rallied to my 2210 T/P level. Subsequently, the Russell rallied to my 2250 initial sell level. I am still short with a now higher 2210 T/P level. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
The FTSE has traded heavy over the past week. The initial sell-off saw the market trade lower to my 9090 T/P level on my latest 9140 short position and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller of the FTSE on any further rally to 9160/9230 with a higher 9305 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 9100.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow never came close to my sell range and I am still flat. Today, I will lower my sell level to 44600/44850 with a lower 45105 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 44370.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX closed higher on Friday, propelled mainly by Apple, while the equal-weight index ended the day essentially unchanged, highlighting the lone standout in an otherwise uneventful session. The NDX continues to make new all-time highs led by vertical moves higher in NVIDIA and Microsoft. In 2000 we thought we had experienced the investment mani of a lifetime when the dot-com bubble burst amidst blissed-out market conditions. In 2005-2007, a hyper frenzy for financial engineering ultimately led to a housing crash and global credit implosion that bankrupt major pillars of the world financial system. In size and quality the attributes of the current mania easily eclipse those prior episodes. SPACs, Meme stocks, 0DTE Options, Leveraged ETFs, Cryptos with no intrinsic value as Bitcoin makes a new all-time high this morning above $122K, YOLO, the record use of NYSE Margin debt and the irrepressible desire to own the debt of companies with the weakest balance sheets all show a fervor for speculation that has no parallel. In 1635, the object of investor speculation was one thing – tulip bulbs. Now, the centre of speculation is nearly everything. A mania runs until it exhausts before asset prices plunge across the board. It is an inevitable progression. When the current bubble bursts, the biggest crash of our lifetime will result. Unfortunately, we do not know the ‘’When or Where’’ this will commence and until we do the buy the dip will continue to be rewarded as record amounts of liquidity continue to flood the system with financial conditions easier than the start of QE back in 2008. The NDX closed at a new all-time high on Friday despite many of the stock in its Index closing below their respective 50-Day Moving Averages. The NDX hit my 22700-buy level post the NFP release before rallying over 1000 points. This move higher saw my revised 22890 T/P level executed. Subsequently, I sold the NDX again at a price of 23520. I am still short and I will add to this trade at 23720 with a now higher 23905 ‘Closing Stop’. We have a nice start to August which gives us more flexibility. I will have a T/P level on this position at 23410. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
My Bund plan worked well as the market sold off to my 129.20 buy level before rallying to my 129.70 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning, the Bund is trading at a price of 129.75. We have short-term support below from 128.40/129.10 where I will again be a buyer with a 127.75 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 129.70. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold is trading $120 higher from where I marked prices 10 days ago. I am still flat as my buy range was never threatened. Gold has resistance from 3450/3470 where I will be a small seller with a 3491 ‘Closing Stop’. Gold has support below from 3305/3325 where I will be a small buyer with a 3289 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 3428. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 3349.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am disappointed with the price action in Silver. While Gold has rebounded $120 over the past week Silver has barley moved. For this reason, I exited my 37.60 average long position at my revised 37.80 T/P level and I am still flat. I will not chase the Silver Market higher from here, preferring to wait for a sell-off before buying again. Today, my buy level will be from 36.00/36.80 with a 34.95 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 37.50.
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