Friday was one of the quietest Non Farm Payroll sessions that I can remember in a long time. After the initial flurry of activity on the weaker than expected 162k Payrolls number the Equity market went pretty much into hold mode for the rest of the session. The Unemployment Rate fell to 7.4% to it lowest level since 2008 but overall the report was probably not soft enough to to dislodge the expectation of September tapering but another such a report could be a game changer. The market was helped late on by comments from the Fed’s Bullard who re-assured the markets re the timing of Fed tapering.
This morning on the economic data front we have PMI Services from both the Euro-Zone and the UK whilst later from the US we have the ISM Non Manufacturing Composite Index
September S&P 500
As I mentioned in the commentary above, Friday was untypically for trading being as it was a Non Farm Payroll day. None of my planned S&P parameters were hit and I remained flat going into the weekend. Today I plan tol lower my sell level to 1706/1711 with a 1713 stop and if I am taken short and subsequently stopped out I will be a more aggressive seller in front of 1720 with a 1725 stop. I will also be a buyer on any dip to 1693/1697 with a 1689 stop.
Euro/USD
I wanted to be flat on Friday going into the Non Farm Payroll announcement and so I covered my long 1.3240 position at 1.3220 and I am still flat. I still like the Euro and my only interest in selling it is on a rally to 1.3370/1.3400 with a 1.3420 stop. Today I will also be a buyer on any dip to 1.3200/1.3230 with a 1.3175 stop.
September FTSE
After the payroll numbers the market dropped down to my 6620 buy level but unfortunately I was stopped out of this position at 6595 and I am now flat. I still like the FTSE and today I will be a buyer on any dip to 6570/6600 with a 6555 stop. I do not want to be short at this time.
September DAX
The DAX plan worked well on Friday as the market dropped down to my 8385 buy level. I am still long and I will raise my stop to 8360. I do not want to be short unless we trade up to 8500/8530 with a 8550 stop.
September Bund
Unfortunately I was stopped out of my long 142.40 position at 142.15 before the numbers were released. After the weaker that expected payroll data the Bund the rallied over a 100 points from its low and in the process left a buy extreme from the very important 142.00 support zone. Today I will be a buyer on any dip to 142.30/142.60 with a 141.95 stop. I do not want to be short at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
Friday was not one of my luckier days as I had the correct view that the Payroll data would be weaker than expected and yet I still managed to lose money as I did not want to have any positions ahead of the data release. I was stopped out of my 1314 long position at 1303 only for Gold to have a huge rally off the 1282 low and in the process put in a very strong buy extreme off this level. Today I will be a small buyer on any dip to 1300/1310 with a 1288 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Again I was very unlucky as I was stopped out of my 19.50 long position at 19.40 before Silver followed Gold higher to make a new high at 20.25 before sellers returned. Silver had an outside up day today and technically this could be significant. I would like to see Silver breaking 20.70 to give me greater confidence in this view. Today I will be a small buyer on any dip to 19.60/19.85 with a 19.35 stop.
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