US Indices were hit hard on Tuesday, albeit settling off troughs, as weakness in mega-cap names (NVDA, AVGO, META, MSFT, AMZN) weighed on the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100, which unsurprisingly saw Tech as the clear sectoral laggard. Communications and Discretionary were the next worst hit, while Energy, Materials, Consumer Staples, and Utilities all saw gains in excess of 1%. Supporting the former was strength in the crude complex after heightened US/Iran rhetoric, despite seemingly easing in the last couple of days. The Wall Street Journal reported that Iranian gunboats approached a US oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday and ordered it to stop, and in response, the US military shot down an Iranian drone that approached a US Navy aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea. Separate reports suggested that, ahead of the Iran/US meeting, Iran reportedly wants to change venue [Oman from Istanbul) and the format of nuclear talks with the US. Amid the continued risk-off sentiment, precious metals saw hefty gains and reversed some of their extensive losses since the Warsh Fed Chair nomination. Bitcoin saw extensive losses and tested $73,000 to the downside. In FX, the Dollar was broadly weaker against G10 peers, as the Swiss Franc gained from broader risk-off sentiment, while Antipodeans, and in particular the Australian Dollar, benefitted from the RBA hiking rates by 25 basis points early yesterday morning. Treasuries saw marginal gains across the curve, albeit in very tight ranges, ahead of QRA on Wednesday. Lastly, the US House approved funds to end the partial government shutdown and sent them to US President Trump for signing into law (which is a given), but it still means the US payrolls report on Friday is delayed, with ING writing this week’s data may be published next week. Fed Member Barkin said the policy rate is now at the higher end of the neutral rate estimate. He described recent economic data as encouraging on the demand side, employment and inflation, but remains concerned about risks to employment and inflation. Barkin is open to a conversation about any aspect of the balance sheet or other Fed operations. Meanwhile, he said it is still an open question about when inflation will fall to 2% and expects progress on inflation, which remains above target. On jobs, he noted a world of no job growth is ‘uncomfortable’ even if the unemployment rate stays low; firms say demand is fine and are not doing layoffs at scale. Barkin does not know Kevin Warsh well, but said he seems capable and charismatic. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 1% while Gold surged ending Tuesday’s session with a 6% gain.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 50 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1195 points for February, after ending January with a gain of 4757 points, having closed December with a gain of 2599 points, after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
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