U.S. Indices closed the day in the green with outperformance in the NASDAQ, while Industrials, Tech and Communications outperformed. There were several developments on AI, with OpenAI declaring a “code red” for workers to shift focus to improve ChatGPT in the face of threats from other chatbots. Meanwhile, Amazon (AMZN) announced its new AI chip, which some labelled as rushed but others labelled as a threat to NVIDIA (NVDA). The Amazon AI chip announcement led to downside in US equities, but that later reversed. Aside from AI, focus was on the potential next Fed Chair. US President Trump announced he would name Powell’s successor in early 2026, which led to a brief Dollar strength and a flattening of the Treasury curve as participants speculated whether Hassett is still the front-runner. However, Trump later announced he had narrowed his choice down to one and then introduced Hassett as the “potential” next Fed Chair, which in turn saw the Dollar move to lows while the curve steepened again. Meanwhile, oil prices settled in the red with focus on the US Special Envoy Witkoff and Kushner meeting with Russian President Putin, although no progress has been reported on, but the US officials are set to travel to Europe afterwards to speak with Ukrainian President Zelensky. Elsewhere in FX, the Japanese Yen gave up some of its gains on Monday and underperformed while equities advanced and the Australian Dollar outperformed, in part to the risk tone, but also as ANZ removed its call for the RBA to cut rates in H1 26. Gold and silver prices diverged, with Gold sold and trading either side of USD 4,200/oz, while silver caught another bid. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 1.21%.
To mark my 3275th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was made 215 points yesterday and is now ahead by 445 points for December after ending the month of November with a gain of 4542 points, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.25% higher at a price of 6829.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 185 points higher for a 0.39% gain at a price of 47,474.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.84% higher at a price of 25,555.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.07% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.5% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 1.14% higher at a price of 49,864.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.05% higher.
The Euro closed 0.02% higher at $1.1611.
The British Pound closed 0.09% lower at $1.3200.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.29% closing at $155.92
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 1 basis points lower at 4.47%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points lower at 2.74%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points lower at 4.08%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.21% lower at $58.60 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.49% lower at $4209.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German, Euro-Zone and U.K. Composite PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. Next, we have Euro-Zone PPI at 10.00 am and U.S. ADP Employment Change at 1.15 pm. This is followed by Capacity Utilisation and Industrial Production at 2.15 pm and Composite PMI at 2.45 pm. Finally, we have Construction Spending and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well as the market rallied to my 6845-sell level before falling almost 40 handles. This move lower saw my revised 6827 T/P level triggered and I am now flat. Stocks stalled on Monday, with the S&P 500 ending the day essentially unchanged, rising just 0.25%. The index appears to be stuck between 6,850 and 6,800, and at this point, we are simply waiting for a clear sense of direction. Looking at the Futures Market, the pattern is a bit clearer. Unfortunately, it has been an unreliable setup lately because it has played out in both bullish and bearish scenarios. What we are seeing now is another one of these diamond-type patterns forming in the S&P 500 Futures, with something similar also appearing in the cash market. We have had big rallies and several unfilled gaps recently—even in the Futures—which is unusual and suggests the market may begin to fill some of those gaps. Liquidity conditions have tightened enough to make that plausible, and we have also seen a fair amount of volatility across other liquidity gauges. So, it would not be surprising if we broke support at the 6,800 level in both the Futures and the cash market and began to fill some of the lower gaps, such as around 6,780 and potentially down toward 6,725. That is where things stand at the moment when I look across the Futures, the cash market, and the broader S&P 500. With the VIX 1-Day closing around 10.5, I just do not think there is enough volatility left to be sold in the marketplace to allow the index to break out and move higher. In fact, heading into a week filled with economic data and with a Fed meeting coming next week, it seems more likely than not that implied volatility will begin to rise. And as it does, that should result in stock prices moving lower. Additionally, VIX options appear to be positioned in a way that keeps the index sticky around 16. Below that level, delta values flatten out, which means the hedging dynamics that normally push the VIX around are no longer present. As a result, those mechanical forces are likely to fade, keeping volatility pinned and putting a lid on the S&P 500. Today, I will again be a seller on any further rally to 6865/6885 with no stop and a 6839 T/P level if triggered. The S&P has strong support from 6710/6740 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 6687 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 6779. If these view change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
No Change: I am still flat. The Euro has resistance from 1.1680/1.1750 where I will be a small seller with a 1.1815 ‘Closing Stop’. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.1440/1.1510 with the same 1.1375 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1615. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1570.
Dollar Index
I am still long the Dollar from Monday at a price of 99.20. I will add to this position on any further move lower to 98.40 while leaving my 97.95 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 99.65. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
Late in Tuesday’s session the Russell sold off to my 2465 T/P level on my latest 2500 short position from last week and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 2500/2560 with the same 2605 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2460. I still do not want to be long the Russell at this time.
FTSE 100
I am still flat the FTSE as the market has continued to trade in a narrow range despite Wednesday’s Budget. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 9480/9550 with the same 9415 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 9610. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow never came close to Tuesday’s sell range and I am still flat. I will not chase the Dow lower leaving my 47730/48030 sell level unchanged with the same 48305 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 47500. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX reversed most of Monday’s losses, hitting my sell range for a now 25510 short position. I will add to this position at 25700 while leaving my 25805 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level to 25360. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
The Bund traded in a narrow range yesterday following Monday’s aggressive sell-off. I am still long the Bund at an average rate of 129.50 with the same 128.35 ‘Closing Stop’. I will now lower my T/P level to 129.70. Meanwhile, I will leave my 128.35 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I do not like the price action in Gold and is the main reason that I have not been chasing the market higher. Gold has short-term support from 4060/4090. I will now lower my buy level to this range with a lower 4035 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4114.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: Silver surged a further 5% on Monday, closing at yet another new all-time high. I am still flat. I am going to stay flat, preferring to observe the market price action before committing to a new trade. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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