U.S. Indexes closed, led by the 2% fall in the NASDAQ 100 lagging. Technology was the clear sectoral laggard, weighed by weakness in Palantir (-8%) post-earnings, which also weighed on other AI plays, such as NVDA (-4%). Back to PLTR, they reported a stellar quarter and raised guidance, but some are concerned by their elevated valuation, whilst also adding to the downbeat picture was Michael Burry’s latest 13-F showing him having bought 5 million put options in PLTR, and 1 million puts in NVDA. Given the pullback in PLTR shares after a solid report, other sectors with stretched valuations have also taken a hit, including uranium/nuclear and rare earth stocks. WTI and Brent were weighed on by the broader risk tone, albeit settled way off their lows, with the Dollar seeing a bid, and the Dollar Index crossing 100 for the first time since August. The Japanese Yen was the G10 gainer on global-risk off trade and verbal FX comments from the Finance Minister, while Antipodeans and Sterling were hit on similar sentiments, with the latter after Chancellor Reeves gave a pre-budget speech and left the UK fixated on the fiscal backdrop. Treasuries saw a mild bid ahead of QRA on Wednesday, while Bitcoin fell beneath USD 100k for the first time since June, and Spot Gold fell back beneath USD 3,950/oz. Overall, newsflow was sparse on Tuesday amid no US data, given the Government shutdown, and no Fed speak as markets await the next catalyst. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 1% and Gold by a hefty 1.7% on increased volume.
To mark my 3275th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 300 points yesterday and is now ahead by 935 points for November, after ending October with a nice gain of 5110 points after closing September with a gain of 3774 points while ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.17% lower at a price of 6771.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 251 points lower for a 0.53% loss at a price of 47,085.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 2.07% lower at a price of 25,435.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.07% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.6% lower.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1.74% lower at a price of 51,497.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.34% higher.
The Euro closed 0.33% lower at $1.1480.
The British Pound closed 0.93% lower at $1.3016.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.34% closing at $153.64
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 1 basis points lower at 4.43%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points lower at 2.65%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points lower at 4.09%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.13% lower at $60.36 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.71% lower at $3932.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we German Factory Orders at 7.00 am. Next, we have German, Euro-Zone and U.K. Composite PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. This is followed by Euro-Zone PPI at 10.00 am and U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm and ISM Manufacturing at 2.00 pm. Finally, we have Composite PMI at 2.45 pm and Factory Orders at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
When you look across the market landscape, it’s becoming fairly apparent that the liquidity drain we’ve been witnessing—likely starting in mid-July with the steady rebuilding of the TGA—has now caught up with much of the market. Bitcoin, which I think of primarily as a liquidity gauge, was hammered on Tuesday, dropping as much as 7% at one point and currently trading down about 6.5%. It broke through significant support around 101,000, and the big question now is whether it is headed toward 93,000. Bitcoin has now fallen 25% from its all-time high. There are not many asset classes that trade more directly in line with liquidity than Bitcoin. Historically, there has been a clear relationship between reserve balances and Bitcoin’s performance, and it looks to me like we are now starting to see the effects of that tightening show up in full force. We have seen overnight funding pressures ease since month-end, but liquidity conditions remain extremely tight, with little sign of improvement anytime soon—unless the Fed were to expand its balance sheet again, which seems highly unlikely. Yesterday, the average repo rate at the DTCC fell to 4.03%. That is still above the Standing Repo Facility rate of 4% and remains well above the effective Federal Funds Rate. This continues to signal that liquidity conditions are strained and that demand for repo access remains elevated. The Dollar continued to show signs of strength today ahead of today’s ADP jobs report. The Dollar Index rose to 100.2, breaking above what appears to be the neckline of a double-bottom pattern that has been forming over the past six months. This breakout suggests the Dollar index could be on its way toward the 102 level. As it stands the S&P has registered five consecutive daily red candles a trend we have not seen in many months. After the close Norwegian Cruise lines reported a record Quarterly Revenue of $2.94 billion, but it was still short of Wall Street expectations for more than $3 billion. Probably more concerning was the company’s below expectation forward guidance, which suggests an anticipated slowdown during the holiday season. As a result, Norwegian shares fell 15% for its worst day since April. My S&P plan worked well as initially the S&P hit my 6758-buy level before rallying over 60 Handles. This move higher saw my 6788 T/P level triggered and I am now flat. As I go to press the S&P is trading at a price of 6733. Given how oversold so many of the technical signals that I follow I have now bought the S&P here. I will add to this position at 6713 with a now lower 6695 ‘Closing Stop’. I will have a T/P level at 6763. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still flat. The Euro closed below 1.1500 for the first time in two months. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any further dip lower to 1.1370/1.1440 with a lower 1.1295 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1520. I still no longer want to be short the Euro at this time.
Dollar Index
The Dollar closed above 100 for the first time since early August. The 14-Day RSI is now approaching 70. As a result, I will be a small seller on any further rally to 100.50/101.20 with a 101.95 ‘Closing Stop’. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 98.50/99.20 with the same 97.85 ‘Closing Stop. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 99.80. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 99.30.
Russell 2000
The Russell closed a further 1.8% lower on Tuesday and I am still flat. The Russell has support below from 2300/2370 with a 2245 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2415.
FTSE 100
I am still flat. The FTSE had an aggressive sell-off to its 20 Day Moving Average at 9590 before subsequently rallying 130 points. This is a big reversal following its first decent daily sell-off in many weeks. Today, I will be a small buyer from 9550/9620 with a tight 9485 ‘Closing Stop’. I no longer want to be short the FTSE at this time. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 9680. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow never came close to Monday’s sell range before falling over 300 points. The Dow has support below at 46900 which is the 20-Day Moving Average. I will be a small buyer from 46600/46850 with a 46395 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 47090.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX never came close to yesterday’s sell range before accelerating lower in the morning and I am still flat. The NDX has support below from 24920/24120 where I will be a small buyer with a 24765 ‘Closing Stop’. Despite the overvalued market I no longer want to be short the market, waiting for a rebound before initiating a new short position. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 25340.
December BUND
The boring sideways price action in the Bund continues. The Bund has traded in a 100-point range for over a month now making it incredibly difficult to make any money. I am still long from almost two weeks ago at a price of 130.00. I will continue to look to add to this position at 129.30 while leaving my 128.55 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. Meanwhile, I will leave 130.20 T/P level unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Today, I will now raise my buy level slightly to 3865/3895 with a higher 3842 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 3929. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
Frustrating! Silver missed Tuesday’s 46.80 initial buy level by just 4 points before rallying 100 points and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 45.60/46.60 with the same 44.45 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 47.80.
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