U.S. Indexes closed at new all-time highs, buoyed by the risk-on sentiment to start the week amid reports that the U.S. and China agreed on a framework for a trade deal ahead of the Trump/Xi meeting later this week. As a result, spot Gold was sold and fell beneath USD 3900/oz, while the crude complex was initially bid, albeit later sold off to settle in the red. In FX, the Dollar was more or less flat with the Australian Dollar, the clear outperformer and havens lagging on the aforementioned trade updates. The Canadian Dollar was flat, with USD/CAD trading within a narrow range despite Trump imposing an additional 10% tariff amid the latest anti-tariff advert. T-Notes flattened in risk-on trade and front-loaded supply, with mixed 2- and 5-year auctions today, ahead of the 7-year on Tuesday, before the FOMC on Wednesday. While newsflow was light to start the week, it quickly ramps up with Fed, BoJ, ECB, and the Bank of Canada all this week, the Trump/Xi meeting, and 5 of the Mag-7 are reporting earnings. Sectors were predominantly green with Communications leading the gains, followed by Tech and Discretionary, while Consumer Staples and Materials were the only sectors in the red. The stock-specific highlight was arguably Qualcomm (QCOM), which surged after announcing the launch of Qualcomm AI200 and AI250 chip-based accelerator cards and racks for data centres. Headline CPI rose 0.3% M/M in September, cooler than the 0.4% expected and prior, with the Y/Y rising 3.0%, up from the prior 2.9% but below the 3.1% forecast. Core measures rose 0.2% (expected. 0.3%, previous 0.3%), with the Y/Y with the Y/Y rising 3.0%, beneath the 3.1% forecast and prior. The report will be welcome but likely changes little for the Fed, with inflation still above target at 3.0%. However, given that there was no acceleration M/M, it shows inflationary pressures remain contained. Expectations at the Fed are building that tariffs will not result in persistent inflation, but price pressures are expected to remain into 2026, before cooling in H2 ’26 and returning to target in 2027 – providing the situation stays similar to the current picture. ING summarises the data as giving the green light to rate cuts. The desk notes that softer than expected, with tariff effects remaining limited. Says that should gradually change, but gives more time for disinflationary forces such as energy, housing and softer wages to mitigate the tariff impact. “In any case, the Fed’s more pressing concern is the cooling jobs market as it looks to optimise policy for its dual mandate”. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 0.31% while Gold smashed, ending Monday’s session with a near 3% fall.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it was lost 240 points yesterday and is now ahead by 3957 points for October after closing September with a gain of 3774 points after ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
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