U.S. Indexes were mixed on Tuesday, with the S&P and NASDAQ 100 ultimately closing little changed in choppy trade, while the Dow Jones was strong while the Russell 2000 was again weak. Sectors were mixed amid a flurry of earnings. Consumer Discretionary and Industrials outperformed following strong earnings from General Motors (GM), boosting auto names, while Industrials benefitted from upside in 3M (MMM) and RTX (RTX), albeit Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NOC) earnings disappointed. Utilities, Communications, and Materials lagged, with the latter hit by tumbling precious metal prices. Gold saw its largest absolute drop on record, which fell from near ATH levels earlier in the session at USD 4,375/oz, with a fall to a low of USD 4,087/oz later in the session, with profit taking, easing credit concerns, and a more friendly tone towards China from Trump all cited for the move. T-Notes were bid, led by the long-end, perhaps as the sharp downside in gold saw those opt for a less volatile traditional safe-haven asset. In FX, the Japanese Yen was weaker after LDP Leader Takaichi was elected as PM after the party formed a coalition with the Innovation Party, enabling the Takaichi trade. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar was the strongest following a hot CPI report. Crude prices were choppy, seeing downside on Trump pushing back against a move into Gaza from Middle Eastern countries to “straighten out” Hamas, but rallied on reports that the planning of a Trump/Putin meeting has come to a halt, with highs seen on reports that the US is to buy 1million barrels of oil for the SPR. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 0.5% while as mentioned above Gold ended Tuesday’s session with a near 6% fall.
To mark my 3275th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was lost 855 points yesterday and is now ahead by 3980 points for October after closing September with a gain of 3774 points after ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.01% higher at a price of 6735.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 218 points higher for a 0.47% gain at a price of 46,924.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.06% lower at a price of 25,127.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.21% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.27% higher at a price of 49,316.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.35% higher.
The Euro closed 0.31% lower at $1.1605.
The British Pound closed 0.24% lower at $1.3373.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.75% closing at $151.89
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 3 basis points lower at 4.48%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 3 basis points lower at 2.55%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points lower at 3.96%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.59% higher at $57.86 a barrel.
Gold closed 5.41% lower at $4121.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. CPI and PPI at 7.00 am followed by U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm. Finally we have a speech from ECB President Lagarde at 1.25 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P 500 finished Tuesday flat, with not much happening. It was actually a fairly uneventful trading session, as most of the action took place in the precious metals market, where Gold plunged. When looking at the intraday structure of the S&P 500, the index has consistently struggled to break above the 6,750 level, which has served as resistance since October 3. It will likely take a gap higher to overcome that barrier. Otherwise, the more probable outcome is a retracement to refill the gap near 6,664 from last Friday. The recent straight-line rally has formed what appears to be a diamond reversal pattern, suggesting the index may not only revisit 6,660 but could eventually decline toward 6,600. I keep saying how difficult it is to be long the S&P following a seven month vertical move higher. With the S&P only 0.5% from all-time highs how can the Fear & Greed Index have a print of ‘Fear’. At the same time a number of my technical signals are oversold. Yet valuations are at levels that do not make sense while to me the whole AI scenario is reminiscent of the dot.com bubble. I am still short the S&P at an average rate of 6719 with the same 6702 T/P level. I will leave my 6741 tight ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The Euro sold off to my 1.1620 T/P level on my latest 1.1675 short position and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 1.1660/1.1730 with the same 1.1795 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1600
Dollar Index
No Change: I am still long the Dollar at 98.70 with the same 99.25 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position at 98.00 while leaving my 97.25 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members
Russell 2000
I am still short the Russell from Monday at a price of 2495. I will continue to look to add to this position on any further move higher to 2555 while leaving my 2605 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level to 2460. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a seller from 9490/9560 with the same 9615 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 9430.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow hit an intra-day high above 47100 before having a small reversal into the close. I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 42400/46450 with the same 45995 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 46720. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX never came close to Tuesday’s buy range, and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 24760/24920 with the same 24595 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 25090.
December BUND
No Change: I am still flat. I will leave my buy level unchanged at 129.30/130.10 with a the same 128.55 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 130.70.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold prices fell by 5.5% yesterday. What is most interesting about this move is that not only did the price drop, but implied volatility for Gold — measured by the GVZ — also declined. It is notable, and likely not coincidental, that Gold had been rising alongside implied volatility. That combination has all the hallmarks of a classic gamma squeeze. It may also be no coincidence that Gold started to weaken right after options expiration on Friday, the 17th. The fact that both price and implied volatility are now falling suggests the recent rally may have been largely speculative. Typically, after a gamma squeeze plays out, we see a sharp and painful unwind, which implies that Gold could retrace and give back much of its recent gains. Tuesday’s aggressive sell-off saw my 4150 exit level triggered on my 4059 short position and I am now flat. This was a painful loss and as a result I am going to stay flat Gold until I get a better edge in the market.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver fell 7% on Tuesday, trading the whole of my buy range for a now 49.20 average long position. I will leave my 47.15 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 49.80. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Recent Comments