U.S. Indexes closed lower, and it was largely one-way traffic from the sell-off at the open, albeit on no particular headline driver. The Dollar saw notable gains as it attempted to retrace its WTD losses, so far, which weighed on all G10 FX peers. The Australian Dollar was the relative outperformer, albeit still weaker, as a firm Aussie CPI overnight supported with odds of a 25bps rate cut next week sitting at just 8%. The Euro was weighed by a dismal German IFO report. Treasuries were lower across the curve and sold off through the session, with the downside extending on Oracle announcing a 7-parter. Copper surged on Wednesday, with Freeport McMoRan (FCX, -17%) seeing losses after the Co. confirmed two fatalities from an incident on PT Freeport Indonesia, which has halted operations at Grasberg, and FCX expects quarterly sales 4% lower for copper. Sectors were mixed but with a downside bias, as Energy was the clear sectorial outperformer and supported by the gains seen in the crude complex of USD 1.50/barrel – benchmarks were supported after reports that Israel’s army took “another step” in the plan to occupy Gaza City. Out of the US, only Fed’s Goolsbee (2025 voter) spoke, and he reiterated his hawkish tones, while new home sales soared above expectations and the top end of the forecast range, albeit little movement was seen. New home sales in August soared 20.5% to 800k, way above the expected 650k and the prior, revised higher, 664k. Median sales price rose 1.9% Y/Y to USD 413.5k, while new homes supply was 7.4 months’ worth at the current pace, falling somewhat from July’s 9 months’ worth. Oxford Economics note that the surge in sales, which seems at odds with other indicators, likely overstates any improvement in housing activity. However, OxEco do expect home sales to improve as mortgage rates decline and the labour market regains its footing. New home prices lifted 4.7% M/M, and while they can be noisy, the consultancy says homebuilders have been offering price cuts and other incentives to encourage sales, but there are signs some builders are going to cut back on those incentives as profit margins have been squeezed. Elsewhere, Oil closed a further 2% higher while Gold was soft ending Wednesday’s session with a 0.75% fall.
To mark my 3250th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 95 points yesterday and is now ahead by 3014 points for September after ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.28% lower at a price of 6637.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 171 points lower for a 0.37% loss at a price of 46,121.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.31% lower at a price of 24,503.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.14% lower
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.1% lower.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.24% higher at a price of 45,738.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.64% higher.
The Euro closed 0.67% lower at $1.1734.
The British Pound closed 0.58% lower at $1.3445.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.83% closing at $148.85
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 1 basis points lower at 4.67%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 1 basis points higher at 2.76%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points higher at 4.14%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.19% higher at $64.80 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.75% lower at $3736.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the release of the German GFK Consumer Sentiment for October which printed -22.3 versus -23.3 expected. Next, we have Euro-Zone ECB Economic Bulletin at 9.00 am. This is followed by U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, GDP, Wholesale Inventories, Durable Goods Orders and PCE Prices at 1.30 pm. Next, we have Existing Home Sales at 3.00 pm and the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index at 3.30 pm. Finally, we have speeches from Fed Members Barr, Logan and Daly while at 6.00 pm we have a Seven-Year Treasury Auction.
Cash S&P 500
It is many weeks since we have seen the S&P close lower for two consecutive trading sessions – albeit with only small losses. Market Cap to GDP has now risen to 216.5 which is just mind boggling as I have described before. With $20 trillion market cap inside of just six companies meaning any sign of break in confidence with so much value tied up in such a concentrated lot while at the same time hardly anyone is diversified there is the possibility of a major reset to come especially if the large macro picture deteriorates. In my opinion this market is a proverbial ticking time bomb that may be lurking as we navigate through these markets over the coming months. The S&P has short-term support at its 14 EMA which comes in at a price of 6592 this morning. For bears to regain even a small bit of control this initial support level needs to be broken and closed below for at least 2/3 trading sessions. Given how crucial this support level is I cannot see this level been tested without a fight to support. Therefore, I will be a buyer from 6570/6590 with a tight 6552 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 6608. The S&P has resistance from 6675/6695. I will now lower my sell level to this range while leaving my wider 6721 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6652. If any of these views change, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
My short 1.1820 position worked well as the Euro traded lower to my 1.1770 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 1.1780/1.1860 with a lower 1.1935 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1710.
Dollar Index
The Dollar was strong on Wednesday, trading higher to my 97.80 T/P level on my latest 97.25 long position and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 96.70/97.40 with the same 95.95 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 98.10.
Russell 2000
I am still flat. Yesterday the Russell closed below its uptrend for the first time since August. Maybe this is nothing and the market bounces today. Or maybe the RSI breakdown is signalling that a change in trend is underway. For this to happen we need to see the 2024 high at 2416 broken. Today, I will lower my sell level to 2465/2525 with a lower 2575 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2420.
FTSE 100
Frustratingly the FTSE missed Wednesday’s sell range by just two points before falling 50 points into the New York close. I am still flat. I will not chase the FTSE lower as I continue to be a seller from 9270/9340 with the same 9405 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 9220. I no longer want to be long the FTSE at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat as the Dow never came close to Wednesday’s sell range. I will now lower my sell level to 46550/46800 with a lower 47005 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 46290. I still have no interest in buying the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Having come within a whisker of getting stopped I was happy to see the NDX hit my 24480 T/P level on my latest 24520 average short position. I am still flat. The NDX has short-term resistance from 24600/24780 where I will be a strong seller with a higher 24905 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 24420
December BUND
No Change: The Bund has traded in an unbelievable tight 40-point range this week. I am still long the Bund at 129.00 with the same 129.60 T/P level. I will add to this position at 128.30 while leaving my 127.85 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am so glad that I changed my stop on Gold as the market reversed some of this week’s gains. This move lower saw Gold hit my revised 3731 exit level on my 3726 short position and I am now flat. I have no edge in Gold at this time. I cannot be a buyer given how overextended the market is. Meanwhile, trying to be a seller is difficult as I have already being stopped three times shorting Gold this month which is not good. Therefore, I will stay flat until I return on Monday.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: Silver continued to build higher momentum throughout Monday’s session, hitting new highs for the year above $44. Today, I am going to stay flat the Silver market as I want to see the price action now that we are at new year-to-date highs. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Please Note: There will be no Daily Commentary tomorrow. Any of my calls that not triggered today and are subsequently executed on Friday will see me return with updated emails for my Platinum Members.
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