U.S. Indices closed positive on Monday with outperformance in the NASDAQ 100 thanks to notable gains in Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA), with Google joining the USD 3 trillion market cap club while Tesla shares rallied on the Musk share purchases. Other mega-cap stocks performed well (AAPL, MSFT, AMZN), but Nvidia (NVDA) losses limited the gains due to China antitrust investigations, albeit NVDA closed off the earlier lows. Sectors were more mixed, however, with the heavy-cap sectors (communication, consumer discretionary and tech) outperforming, while consumer staples and health care lagged; breadth was negative at 200 gainers to 300 losers. Elsewhere, T-notes were bid as a downbeat New York Fed Manufacturing Survey added to economic concerns, while attention turns to US Retail Sales on Tuesday and the FOMC on Wednesday. In FX, the Dollar underperformed while the Canadian Dollar led gains. CNH saw strength after the US and China talks, which saw the two sides come to an agreement in principle on TikTok. Meanwhile, overnight, China’s Retail sales data disappointed, as did Industrial Output, which raised speculation of more Chinese stimulus. Gold prices continued to add to gains as economic concerns continue to keep Fed rate cut bets in play, while also spurring demand for havens. Oil prices settled green with fresh upside seen on more reports of a Ukrainian strike on Russian oil facilities. The NY Fed Manufacturing Survey disappointed in September. It fell to -8.7 from +11.9, well beneath the +5.0 forecast, and even falling beneath the most pessimistic forecast of -6.00. The downside was primarily led by tumbling New orders and shipments. The New Orders Index declined 35 points to -19.6, and the shipments index fell thirty points to -17.3, the lowest levels for both indexes since April 2024. Meanwhile, Prices Paid fell eight points to 46.1, a sign that input price increases slowed but remained steep, while prices received were little changed at 21.6, suggesting selling prices continued to rise at a moderate rate. The index for the number of employees came in at around zero, suggesting that employment was little changed after increasing for the prior three months, while the average workweek index declined to -5.1, pointing to a modest drop in hours worked. Looking ahead, the report noted that the index for future general business conditions came in at 14.8, suggesting that firms expect conditions to improve somewhat in the months ahead. Elsewhere, both Oil and Gold closed higher on Monday by 1% each.
To mark my 3250th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 230 points yesterday and is now ahead by 817 points for September after ending August with a gain of 3362 points after closing July with a gain of 3753 points after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.47% higher at a price of 6615.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 49 points higher for a 0.11% gain at a price of 45,883.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.84% higher at a price of 24,293.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.39% higher.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.7% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.54% higher at a price of 45,008.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.25% lower.
The Euro closed 0.29% higher at $1.1768.
The British Pound closed 0.31% higher at $1.3601.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.24% closing at $147.31
Bonds
U.K.’s 10-Year Gilt closed 4 basis points lower at 4.64%.
Germany’s 10-Year Bund Yield closed 2 basis points lower at 2.69%
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points lower at 4.04%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.04% higher at $63.34 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.92% higher at $3676.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of U.K. Employment Rate which came in as expected at 4.7%. Next, we have the Euro-Zone Industrial Production and the ZEW Sentiment Economic Indicator at 10.00 am followed by U.S. Retail Sales at 1.30 pm. This is followed by Capacity Utilisation and Industrial Production at 2.15 pm. Next, we have Business Inventories and the NAHB Housing Market Index at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have a 20-Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
We are in an environment that I have never seen before. All asset classes are rallying and unless you are short it is almost impossible not to make money. Cash earns interest, equities at all-time highs, house prices at all-time highs, metals at all-time highs, crypto etc. and everything historically extended. These moves are all driven by ever easing financial conditions helped by massive buybacks. Yesterday it was the turn of Elon Musk who bought 2.5 million Tesla shares at a cost of $2.5 billion. The end result: Tesla’s Market Cap increased by $100 billion after a near 4% rally. Meanwhile, the US Fiscal 2025 year-to-year deficit hit $1.973 trillion versus comparable 2024 fiscal deficit of $1.897 trillion which is the third largest deficit in history only surpassed by the post COVID absurdity years of 2020 and 2021. So, for all the narratives, the political drama, tariffs: Nothing has changed. Same programme. Fiscal dominance, which is stimulative, massive liquidity and ever easing financial conditions which equals Global Asset Melt Up. Hence the very notion that monetary policy still being restrictive is just a big fat lie in my opinion. But now let the Fed cut rates on Wednesday to ease financial conditions even further and exacerbate the wealth gap to ever more absurd levels. The only way to cure inflation would be a recession but it would come at the expense of much lower asset prices which as we know are priced to perfection. Everything has been melting up since 2022, another big super rally that never ends until it does as we patiently wait for the ‘’WHEN’’. This has been the same programme since the March lows of 2009 comprising of 66 Quarters. Of those only 11 showed red candles with back-to-back red Quarters only happening three times. Basically, markets are up 80% of the time. Even the COVID Crash only shows a mere four-week blip on the Daily Chart for the S&P. 2018 was the only year where there was downside to the end of the year. The Fed are expected to cut rates on Wednesday. The consensus view is that a rate cut will be great for the S&P. I am not so sure. We are not facing the best situation for a rate cut. Stocks at all-time highs. Why are we cutting rates in that environment. I am not predicting a crash. But it could be a switch that sends markets in the other direction in the short-term. It is interesting that despite the rally in both the S&P and NDX that the VIX rose over 6% on Monday. A rising VIX in a rising market is another warning sign that we are close to a correction. Late yesterday I emailed my Platinum Members to cancel my 6601 ‘Closing Stop’ in the S&P. By fluke this strategy worked as the S&P briefly fell to a low of 6554 overnight before attracting strong buying, driving the market 70 Handles higher, sitting at 6625 this morning. This is initial sell-off saw my 6558 T/P level triggered and I am now flat. The 14-Day RSI closed at 70 last night. As a result, I will again be a strong seller of the S&P from 6633/6653 with a 6671 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6595.
EUR/USD
The Euro rallied to my 1.1770 sell level. I am still short with the same 1.1925 ‘Closing Stop’. I will add to this position at 1.1850 while leaving my T/P level unchanged at 1.1700. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
The Dollar continues to trade in a narrow range. I am still long from last week at a price of 97.70 while leaving my 96.45 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will continue to look to add to this position on any further move lower to 97.00. I will now lower my T/P level to 98.25. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
I am still short the Russell at a price of 2415. I will add to this trade at 2465 while leaving my 2505 ‘Closing Stop’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level to 2390. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
FTSE 100
No Change: The boring sideways price action in the FTSE continues and I am still flat. I have no interest in shorting the market preferring to wait for a sell-off to my buy range before pulling the trigger. Therefore, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 9070/9150 with the same 8995 wider ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 9205. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat as the Dow traded heavy yesterday in comparison to both the NDX and S&P. The Dow has short-term resistance from 46100/46350 where I will continue to be a seller with the same 46505 tight ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 45870. I still have no interest in buying the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Wrong! I was stopped out of my 23890 average short position at a price of 24250 and I am still flat. The 14 Day RSI is back above 70. Apart from the odd session like yesterday my strategy of selling rallies has worked well over the past few months. This is a dangerous market and the one worry is buying the market too early on a dip as one of these ‘’buy the dip sell-offs’’ will not work leaving a lot of traders and funds trapped. Today, I will again be a seller from 24350/24530 with a higher 24705 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 24120.
December BUND
I am still flat. Today, I will leave my 128.40/129.10 buy level unchanged with the same 127.85 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 129.85. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold spiked higher into the close and I am still flat. Ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC Statement, I will now raise my Gold sell level to 3705/3725 with a higher 3741 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 3672. Given how overbought Gold is trading at this time I no longer want to be a buyer of the market. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Today, I will raise my Silver buy level to 40.90/41.90 with a higher 39.55 ‘Closing Stop’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 42.85.
Recent Comments