U.S. Indices saw slight losses on Tuesday amid a lack of tier 1 US data or Fed speak, as President Trump’s tariff updates dominated the news – after sending out 14 trade letters on Monday, Tuesday he noted the tariffs will start to be paid on August 1st, there is no change to this date, and no extension will be granted, and also he is probably two days off from sending EU a letter. However, as Trump spoke in the Cabinet meeting, he believed the copper tariff would be 50%, which saw copper prices rise in excess of 10% to a record high. The Dollar eked out slight gains, while the Australian Dollar was the distinct G10 outperformer after the unexpected RBA hold yesterday, with wide expectations for a 25bps cut. The Japanese Yen was the laggard, and sensitivity continues to reside over the Yen given the new tariff rates, and also the Japan upper house elections on July 20th. BRL, CNH, and ZAR saw weakness after Trump said anyone in BRICS is getting a 10% charge. T-Notes were sold as the focus lies on supply this week, as well as ongoing trade updates, while there was little move on the average US 3 Year Auction. WTI and Brent saw slight gains and extended on Monday’s strength ahead of private inventory data after-hours. Gold was softer throughout the day, and largely led by the broadly constructive risk tone, echoing pressure seen in other traditional havens (i.e. fixed and JPY), as opposed to anything yellow-metal specific. Sectors were mixed – energy sat atop of the breakdown, while Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Financials led the losses, with the latter weighed on by weakness seen in GS, JPM, and BAC after all three were downgraded at HSBC on stretched valuations. Over the next two days, the focus will be trade with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick expecting another 15-20 trade letters to go out in that time, with Trump having EU offers on his desk, and is deciding on the next course of action. The New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations showed mixed inflation expectations. The one-year ahead forecast eased to 3.0% from 3.2% in May, while the 3- and 5-yr were unchanged at 3.0% and 2.6%, respectively. Expectations for prices of rent, gas, medical care, and college accelerated in June, with the median year-ahead commodity price change expectations increasing by 1.5% to 4.2%, while medical care rose by 1.9% to 9.3%, its highest level since June 2023. Median home price rise expectations were unchanged at 3.0%. Concerning the labour market, the median one-year ahead earnings growth expectations fell by 0.2% to 2.5% in June, keeping below its 12-month trailing average of 2.8%. Albeit June labour market expectations improved due to the mean unemployment expectations decreasing by 1.1% to 39.7% with the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months falling by 0.8% to 14.0%, its lowest level since December 2024. Separately, households were more optimistic on personal finance and credit access; The median expected growth in household income increased by 0.2% to 2.9% in June, and perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago showed a smaller share of households reporting it is harder to get credit.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 185 points yesterday and is now ahead by 795 points for July after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
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