U.S. Indexes closed higher in what was a risk-on session with equities bid across the board, with notable outperformance in the NASDAQ. The majority of sectors were green, although Energy, Health Care and Utilities were hit with energy stocks tracking crude prices lower. Crude initially gapped higher at the open as the Israel/Iran conflict escalated, although crude then tumbled from the peaks while equities moved higher, paring some of the moves seen late last week. Nonetheless, crude prices still remain elevated compared to recent weeks and kept Treasuries pressured on inflationary fears. In FX, the Dollar was sold but off lows heading into APAC while Antipodes outperformed, tracking risk sentiment. The risk on trade was seen despite continued conflict in the Middle East, but reports in the Wall Street Journal suggested Iran wants to de-escalate, which took crude prices to session lows and stocks to highs but ultimately finished off best levels as the two sides continued with the missile exchanges. Attention will largely be on any de-escalation (ceasefire, resumption of nuclear talks), or escalation (strikes on energy facilities, targeting of leaders, US gets involved). Elsewhere, data sparked little reaction but the New York Fed Manufacturing index saw a chunky miss due to a fall in New Orders and Shipments. Attention turns to US Retail Sales on Tuesday, ahead of FOMC and updated Dot Plots on Wednesday. The NY Fed Manufacturing Survey in June tumbled to -16.0 from -9.2, despite expectations for a rise to -5.5. The primary reason for the drop in the headline business conditions index was the fall in New Orders to -14.2 from +7.0. Shipments also declined, falling to -7.2 from +3.5. Meanwhile, delivery times held steady, and supply availability worsened. Inventories were little changed. Regarding prices, Prices Paid fell to 46.8 from 59.0, while Prices Received rose to 26.6 from 22.9, suggesting selling price increases accelerated somewhat, while the drop in prices paid suggests the pace of price increases slowed, but remained significant. The six-month outlook saw a large improvement, rising to +21.2 from -2.0, rising above zero for the first time since March. Elsewhere, both Oil and Gold closed lower by 2.15% and 1.37% respectively.
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