U.S. Indices closed mixed on Friday with outperformance in the NASDAQ 100 seen thanks to Alphabet’s (GOOGL) earnings beat when reported on Thursday night, while the SPX also finished green. Both the Dow and Russell 2000 lagged, however. Trade uncertainties remain, although there were mixed messages on Friday. Bloomberg reported China is said to be considering exempting some US goods from tariffs as costs increase, while Caijing noted how several tech companies confirmed that eight tariff codes related to semiconductors and integrated circuits are now exempt from additional tariffs. There was further pushback from China, stating they are not having talks on tariffs with the US, and it is not familiar with the specifics of tariff exemptions. President Trump claimed he spoke to China’s President Xi, but this was once again denied by China, as well as sources from Washington and Beijing to the Financial Times. During trade, Trump said that he will not drop China tariffs unless they give the US something, adding that another tariff pause is unlikely. Despite the mixed messages, the risk tone was a positive one with gains in the aforementioned indices helping crude prices to settle in the green. T-notes continued to grind higher as the trade uncertainty continued to mount with T-notes extending their move off the mid-April lows. Gold was sold amid higher equity prices but the yellow metal ended the session off its lows, around USD 3,300/oz. The Dollar was ultimately flat, with underperformance in the Japanese Yen ahead of this week’s Bank of Japan Meeting. The data highlight saw the final University of Michigan revised up from the preliminary thanks to an improvement in current conditions. There was no Fed speak on Friday, but the Wall Street Journal’s Timiraos gave some clarity on Fed’s Hammack comment on Thursday that hinted at a June cut. The Fed watcher downplayed the signal, stating she made clear she was talking about any number of points in the future, not just June, noting the word IF was doing a lot of heavy lifting. The Final April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey was revised up to see the headline at 52.2, above the prior and expected 50.8. Looking into the report, expectations also beat at 47.3, despite expectations for a downward revision to 47.1 from 47.2. However, the primary cause for the increase was the rise in current conditions to 59.8 from 56.5, despite expectations for this to be left unchanged. Looking into the April report, “Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead”. On employment, it said labour market expectations “remained bleak”. It also highlights that “consumers anticipated weaker income growth for themselves in the year ahead. Without reliably strong incomes, spending is unlikely to remain strong amid the numerous warning signs perceived by consumers”. On inflation, One Year consumer expectations eased to 6.5% from 6.7% in the preliminary reading while the Five Year was maintained at 4.4%. Note, that a Fed study was released on Thursday, suggesting what consumers have been saying differs from what they have been doing post-pandemic. It highlights how this makes consumer sentiment surveys on their own a weaker indicator of future consumer behaviour and the health of US consumers. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 0.37% while Gold was soft, ending Friday with a loss of 0.4% following another volatile trading session.
To mark my 3175th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat on Friday and is still ahead by 7440 points for April after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Recent Comments