U.S. Equity Markets ended Wednesday mixed, enduring a choppy day, although futures attempted a rebound from overnight trade following the House passing a budget blueprint endorsing US President Trump’s USD 4.5 trillion tax cuts. However, stocks sold off through US trade, before rallying ahead of the closing bell, with attention turning to NVDA earnings after hours (NVDA were firmer at the open but closed lower). NVIDIA earnings came in higher than expected with revenue at $39.33 billion versus $37.61 billion expected. Futures Markets are higher as I go to post. Meanwhile, President Trump was speaking on Tariffs at the Cabinet Meeting, where he noted they will be announcing tariffs on the EU very soon, and that he is not stopping the tariffs, adding they will go on, not all, but a lot of them. There was also some confusion about his response to Canada/Mexico tariffs, Trump said they are going into effect from April 2nd, but Lutnick clarified global tariffs go into effect on April 2nd, while Trump can pause Canada/Mexico tariffs related to fentanyl/border if he is satisfied with their efforts by the March 4th deadline. T-Notes reversed higher despite selling off overnight on the budget blueprint passage, with underlying factors supporting the bid in Treasuries (DOGE, Bessent’s preference for low yields, terming out duration a “long way off”, and upcoming potential Fed Balance sheet wind down pause, slowing consumer trends) – T-Notes settled at highs. Data saw soft US New Home Sales, while Fed speak from Barkin and Bostic stuck to the script. Oil prices settled lower with more reports of an agreement between Iraq government and Kurdistan about the resumption of Kurdistan oil exports weighing, but crude was off lows after Trump reversed concessions Biden gave to Venezuela’s Maduro on an oil deal. Gold prices were flat while copper rallied on US copper tariff threats and also due to Chile power outages affecting its copper mines, which are slowly coming back online. U.S. New Home Sales of single-family houses in January fell 10.5% to 657k, beneath the 680k analyst consensus. The supply of new homes rose to 9.0 months’ worth from 8.0months worth in December. The median sale price rose 3.7% to 446.3k from 430.4k. The breakdown saw Northeast sales -20%, Midwest -16.7%, South -14.8% while the West rose 7.7%. Regarding the downside, analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics write “Some of the plunge in new home sales likely reflects unseasonably cold weather, deterring many prospective homebuyers from viewing properties.” The desk adds that the underlying trend in sales has been flat for nearly two years as mortgage demand stayed weak, but new home sales have been supported by a lack of existing homes on the market. Looking ahead, Pantheon writes “The current sales index of the NAHB homebuilders’ confidence survey points to new home sales remaining roughly around this level, or dipping slightly, over the rest of Q1.” Elsewhere, Oil closed 0.5% lower while Gold was flat.
To mark my 3150th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 495 points yesterday and is now ahead by 3560 points for February. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.01% higher at a price of 5956.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 188 points lower for a 0.43% loss at a price of 43,433.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.22% higher at a price of 21,132.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.99% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% lower.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.25% lower at a price of 38,142.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.07% higher.
The Euro closed 0.13% lower at $1.0498.
The British Pound closed 0.21% higher at 1.2691.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.04% closing at $148.94.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 4 basis points lower at 2.42%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points lower at 4.50%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points lower at 4.27%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.5% lower at $68.52 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.2% higher at $2919.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Economic Sentiment Indicator at 10.00 am, followed by a U.K.15 Year Gilt Auction at 11.00 am. Next, we have the latest ECB Minutes from last month’s meeting at 12.30 pm. This is followed by U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, GDP and Durable Goods Orders at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have Pending Home Sales at 3.00 pm, the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index at 3.30 pm and a 30-Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm. Meanwhile, Fed Members, Barr, Bowman, Hammack and Harker are speaking at 3.00 pm, 4.45 pm, 6.15 pm and 8.15 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
There is no doubt that given the enormous debt situation in America that both Treasury Secretary Bessent and President Trump want lower Bond Yields and ultimately lower Interest Rates. However, wanting and getting are two different scenarios and this is why Friday’s PCE Inflation data is so important. Bessent comments that America’s private sector is in recession has led to a near 40-basis point move lower in 10 Year Treasury Yields over the past week certainly helps his case. In my view they want to end QT and are looking for every excuse to initiate QE again. While the S&P has moved lower by 5% it is nothing to the carnage witnessed in some of the previous Retail loved stocks like Meta, Google, Amazon, Tesla and MSTR and would help explain why the Fear & Greed Index is at ‘’Extreme Fear’’ with its near 20 print. Previously, anytime this key signal hits 20 it is followed by a strong recovery rally in both the NDX and S&P and is why I have no interest in pressing the downside here without having a meaningful rally first. One factor that has been driving the Fear and Greed indicator to lower highs is poor breadth and underlying performances. I am seeing some positive divergences as shown by the Banks which are holding up well on the back of lower Interest Rates and positive earnings. In summary: We got important individual stocks massively oversold but not the signal charts in aggregate. It took a while but finally my S&P plan worked well as the market sold off to my 5938-buy level before rallying to my 5963 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 5890/5910 with a lower 5875 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Given the ‘’Fear & Greed’’ reading (22) I have no interest in shorting the S&P. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 5934.
EUR/USD
No Change. I am still flat the Euro. I will leave my 1.0380/1.0450 buy level unchanged with the same 1.0295 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.0510. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
Dollar Index
No Change: I am still long the Dollar from last week at a price of 106.60 with the same 107.10 T/P level. I will add to this position on any further move lower to 106.00 while leaving my 105.55 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Russell 2000
The Russell continues to build value below its 50 Day Moving Average at 2275. The Russell is oversold having led this week’s aggressive move lower. With Treasury Yields lower by almost 40 basis points I would expect the Russell to find support from lower yields and rally back to test the 50 MA. I am still long at 2210. I will continue to look to add to this position at 2150 while leaving my 2230 T/P level unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
I am still flat the FTSE Market. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 8560/8630 with the same 8495 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 8685. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
No Change: Last Friday’s aggressive sell-off saw the Dow close below its 50 Day Moving Average (43715) and this pivot point should act as resistance on any bounce. However, following last week’s 4% drop the Dow is close to oversold. The Dow has left a large ‘’Open Gap’’ below the market from 42500/42700 where I will be an aggressive buyer on any tag with no stop. Meanwhile, the Dow has short-term support from 42900/43150 where I will again be a buyer with a tight 42755 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 43390.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX rallied yesterday afternoon to my 21260 T/P level on Tuesday’s 21175 average long position. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the NDX again which we did at a price of 21020 before the market rallied to my 21180 T/P level following the release of NVIDIA’s earnings report and I am now flat. The NDX is oversold and due a more sustainable bounce. The NDX has support below from 20800/20960 where I will be a strong buyer with a lower 20595 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 21090.
December BUND
I am still flat the Bund. Ahead of the key U.S. PCE Inflation data which will be released at 1.30 pm tomorrow, I will now raise my Bund buy level to 131.00/131.80 with a higher 130.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 132.35. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still flat and will stay flat until Monday especially as Bitcoin fell another 4% on Wednesday. Gold never came close to Tuesday’s sell rang before accelerating lower and I am still flat. As I am now long Silver, I will stay flat Gold to see how the market reacts to yesterday’s 8% fall in Bitcoin. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still long Silver at an average rate of 31.75 from Tuesday. I will leave my 32.20 T/P level unchanged. I will now raise my stop to a ‘’Closing Price’’ of 30.25. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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