U.S. Equity Markets closed lower on Friday with the majority of losses occurring in the US afternoon on likely profit taking into the weekend after President Trump’s first week in office which saw the S&P 500 hit a fresh record high earlier in the week. Underperformance was observed in the NASDAQ 1 with weakness in Semi-Conductors after a soft Texas Instruments (TXN) guide, with the sector continuing to be hit after disappointing SK Hynix guidance on Thursday; NIVIDA closed -3% on Friday. Meanwhile, Meta (META) was ultimately bid despite initial selling after CEO Zuckerberg heavily raised CapEx guidance for the year with a focus on AI. Elsewhere, T-Notes settled roughly flat with marginal upside with T-Notes chopping to remarks from US President Trump and economic data. Upside was observed after the President softened his tariff stance overnight on China, noting he would rather not use tariffs on China and alluded to making a deal with China. However, European PMI data was generally better than expected which saw T-Notes move lower before disappointing US PMI’s reignited the bid, supported by revisions lower to the Jan University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. The Dollar tumbled in response to the Trump remarks with further pressure added after the PMI data, while the Japanese Yen was flat versus the softer Dollar despite the Bank of Japan rate hike early Friday morning to 0.5% which is the highest rate in 17 years (as expected). The Yen chopped to remarks from BoJ Governor Ueda in the press conference, seeing gains around commentary on strong wage data and weakness around comments that there is no clear policy path for future adjustments. Elsewhere, oil settled flat with earlier upside supported by the weaker Dollar before selling was observed at the cash open, although there is focus on the impact of a fire at Iraq’s giant Rumaila oilfield, which caused a temporary 300k BPD hit to production and sources via S&P Global suggest it could last for days. Gold prices continued to trend higher, as did Silver, both supported by the weaker Dollar. Existing home sales rose 2.2% in December to 4.24 million (prev. 4.15 million), above the expected 4.19 million. Inside the report, median existing-home sale price jumped 6% Y/Y to USD 404,400, the biggest Y/Y gain seen since October 2022, while inventory of unsold existing homes fell 13.5% M/M, that is, 3.3 months’ supply at the current monthly sales pace. NAR Chief Economist Yun said “The median home price was elevated partly due to the upper-end market’s relative better performance, and sales rose by 35% from a year ago for homes priced above $1 million, while sales fell for homes priced under $250,000.” Ahead, Oxford Economics current baseline looks for existing home sales in 2025 to be roughly in line with the Q4 pace, but thinks “the risk may be for a slightly stronger pace of sales, particularly if mortgage rates decline modestly as we expect.” The Final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for January saw the headline revised down to 71.1 from 73.2, despite expectations for it to be left unchanged. The drop was primarily led by the current conditions index which fell to 74.0 from 77.9, while forward looking expectations eased to 69.3 from 70.2. The inflation expectations were unchanged from the preliminary for the 1 year at 3.3% with the 5 year being revised down to 3.2% from 3.3%. Note, the UoM survey is extremely sensitive to political changes as it judges overall sentiment for democrats and republicans. Bloomberg’s Authers highlighted that “Michigan asks respondents for their party identification… 1 year inflation expectations among Republicans were higher than for Democrats throughout the Biden administration – that has all changed; Democrats are suddenly braced for 4% inflation, while Republicans say prices will rise by only 0.1%.” The report highlighted that “Concerns over the future trajectory of inflation were visible throughout the interviews and were tied to beliefs about anticipated policies like tariffs. Consumers continued to spontaneously express motives for buying-in-advance to avoid future price increases, and robust auto and retail sales data suggest that consumers are indeed acting on these views.” Elsewhere, Oil closed flat, while Gold ended Friday with a gain of 0.7% helped by the weaker Dollar
To mark my 3125th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 90 points on Friday and is now ahead by 1904 points for January after closing December with a gain of 1997 points after closing November with a gain of 3049 points having finished October with a gain of 2179 points. September saw a gain of 4402 points following a 301-point loss for August after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
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