U.S. Indices (SPX, NDX, RUT, SPX) closed in the red on Tuesday which was the last trading session of 2024. However, internally the market was strong as shown by the McClellan Oscillator which improved from Monday’s -122 print to end the year at -62. This is the first session for over three weeks that saw internals improve. Overnight Chinese shares have been hit but this has not affected the American Indexes with Futures Markets higher across the board. Trading will be quiet today given the absence of key economic data while most traders will not return to their desks until Monday. Meanwhile the Japanese Markets are closed until next week. Elsewhere, Oil closed 1.24% higher while Gold ended Tuesday flat despite the surge in the Dollar.
To mark my 3100th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was made 404 points on Tuesday, to close December with a gain of 1997 points after closing November with a gain of 3049 points having finished October with a gain of 2179 points. September saw a gain of 4402 points following a 301-point loss for August after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.43% lower at a price of 5881.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 29 points lower for a 0.07% loss at a price of 42,544.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.87% lower at a price of 21,012.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.09% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.5% lower.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.96% lower at a price of 39,894.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.32% lower.
The Euro closed 0.6% lower at $1.0353.
The British Pound closed 0.4% lower at 1.2513.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.3% closing at $157.21.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points lower 2.37%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 7 basis points lower at 4.57%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 6 basis points lower at 4.57%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.24% higher at $71.87 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.1% higher at $2624 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic front we have German Euro-Zone and U.K. Manufacturing PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. Next, we have U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm, followed by Manufacturing PMI at 2.45 pm. Finally, we have ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P had its worst finish to a year since 1966 as stagflation fears increase. Yellen’s debt warning last week certainly played a part. Tuesday’s sell-off was again led by the Mag Seven shares which got hit hard over the past two weeks. However, with some of my technical charts so oversold it is very difficult not to be a buyer of dips. Already this morning the S&P Futures are trading over 40 Handles higher from Tuesday’s close despite the 1% fall in Chinese shares this morning. Equal Weight is more oversold than at any time in the past three years and even more oversold compared to the 2022 period before rallying hard. The oversold charts that I follow are screaming for ‘’a rip your head off bounce’’. The question as usual is the ‘’When and the Where’’. There is no doubt that Friday’s 20th December 5803 low is now the key support level. I will continue to be a buyer of dips as long as this key support level holds. The 50 Day Moving Average comes in at a price of 5942 and the 20 Day at 5976. Both of these key MA’s will have to be broken for a run to new highs. On Monday my S&P plan worked well as the market traded the whole of my buy range for a 5886 average long position before rallying to my revised 5910 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will be a strong buyer on any dup lower to 5856/5876 with a lower 5839 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has short-term resistance from 5955/5975 where I will be a small seller with a 5991 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 5894. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 5942.
EUR/USD
No Change: I am still long the Euro at an average rate pf 1.0553 with the same 1.0325 ‘’Closing Stop’’. This morning the Euro is trading at 1.0370. I will leave my 1.0580 T/P level on this position. I cannot believe how little movement there has been in the Euro over the last month. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
The Dollar surged on Tuesday. I am still short at an average rate of 107.60 with the same 108.55 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Meanwhile, I will leave my T/P level unchanged at a price of 107.40. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
No Change: I am going to stay flat the DAX until the New Year. Without doubt this has been the trickiest market to trade in for the last few months. It looks like we have finally put at least a short-term top in this market last week at 20600 but given the seasonality I am afraid to short the market. I still have no interest in buying the DAX at this time.
Cash FTSE
My latest long 8126 FTSE position worked well as the market rallied to my 8180 T/P level on Tuesday and I am now flat. The FTSE has support below from 8040/8110 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 7975 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 8160. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well as the market traded the whole of my buy range for a 42570 average long position. Subsequently, the Dow rallied back above 43000. Unfortunately, given the number of ‘’Open Positions’’, I covered this position too early at my revised 42640 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning, the Dow is trading at a price of 42750. The Dow has short-term resistance at its 50 Day Moving Average (43449). I will use any rally to this area (43400/43650) to be an aggressive seller with a 43805 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. Meanwhile, the Dow has short-term support from 41900/42150 where I will be an aggressive buyer with 41695 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 43160. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 42370.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX got hit hard on both Monday and Tuesday. This latest sell-off saw the NDX trade the whole of my buy range for a now 21260 average long position. With the 50 Day Moving Average at a price of 20969 which is just below current prices, I will now lower my ‘’Closing Stop’’ to a price of 20935. I will also lower my T/P level to 21310. If any of the above prices are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March BUND
I am still long the Bund from last week at an average rate of 133.50 with the same 134.10 T/P level. I will leave my 132.45 ‘’Closing Price’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
My Gold plan worked well as the market sold off to my 2596 initial buy level before rallying $30. Unfortunately, I exited my long position too early at 2600 given the fact that I have a large exposure in Silver and I am now flat. Gold has support below from 2575/2591 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 2559 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2603.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still long Silver at an average price of 30.95 with the same 28.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will leave my 31.40 T/P level unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Please Note: My Next Daily Commentary will be posted on Monday, January 6, 2025. Any of my calls that are not hit today and are subsequently triggered tomorrow will see me return with updated emails for my Platinum Members.
Recent Comments