U.S. Equity Markets Stocks ended Monday lower on all major Indices, with downside most notably in the NDX (-0.8%) as semiconductor weakness weighed on the tech-heavy index, due to China’s regulators opening an investigation into NVIDIA (NVDA, -2.6%) over a violation of anti-monopoly law. Sectors were mainly in the red, where Utilities and Financials lagged, whereas Healthcare, Real Estate and Materials outperformed. The highlight of the day was arguably the Politburo changing its monetary policy stance to moderately loose from Prudent, the first time since 2011. As such, Antipodes outperformed while downside was seen in the Japanese Yen and US Treasuries while traders also turn attention to US CPI and Treasury supply. Gold was also supported, further boosted by the PBoC resuming Gold purchases in November after a six-month halt. Crude prices settled higher by over USD 1.00/bbl following the renewed geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East after Syrian fights toppled the Assad regime while the Politburo update also helped. Aside from the China news, the latest US NY Fed SCE saw inflation expectations increase across the forecast horizon and the number of respondents expecting the financial situation to improve over the next year hit the highest level since 2022. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 1.44% while Chinese buying saw Gold end Monday with a near 1% gain.
To mark my 3100th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was made 273 points yesterday and is now ahead by 157 points for December after closing November with a gain of 3049 points having finished October with a gain of 2179 points. September saw a gain of 4402 points following a 301-point loss for August after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.61% lower at a price of 6052.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 240 points lower for a 0.54% loss at a price of 44,401.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.84% lower at a price of 21,440.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.14% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.53% higher at a price of 39,367.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.0553.
The British Pound closed 0.05% higher at 1.2750.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.9% closing at $151.18.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points higher 2.13%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points higher at 4.29%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 4 basis points higher at 4.20%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.44% higher at $68.17 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.9% higher at $2658 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of Final German CPI which rose 2.2% as expected. Next, we have U.S. Non-Farm Productivity and Unit Labour Costs at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have a Three -Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Yesterday was the first down-day in a while as finally negative internals some across the board selling in the American Indexes. I continue to see major warning signs on the big constructs and while they may not matter in a big way this year even in the short-term, they may offer the prospect of a pullback over the next few days like we saw on Monday ahead of the expected Santa Rally into year-end. The question is whether any pullback will be minor as we saw yesterday or the start of a larger punch which the technicals are screaming for. Even Bitcoin fell 7% at one stage before rallying 2% off these lows as I go to press. The combined Market Cap for the American Market is over $62.2 trillion. Chine is next at $10.3 trillion followed by Japan in third place at $6.6 trillion. The Mega tech cap monsters and size of the U.S. economy make American markets deservedly the largest stock market on the planet but it is now sucking all the oxygen out of the room. Talk about too big to fail with valuations that are frankly terrifying. The S&P 500 price-to-book ratio now exceeds the March 2000 high which is another reason why not to be long this market. Walmart Inc has a 34 Forward P/E which is just insane. CPI tomorrow and the Fed Meeting next week will be key as to whether we get a larger sell-off or another rally on low volume into January. Yesterday’s move lower saw my 6075 T/P level triggered on my latest 6089 short position and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a small seller of the S&P on any further move higher to 6066/6086 with a 6103 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has short-term support from 5980/5998 where I will be a buyer with a 5965 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
The boring price action for the Euro shows no sign of ending. This morning, the Euro is trading at 1.0560. I am still long the Euro at an average rate of 1.0665. Given how oversold the Euro I will continue to hold this position with no stop for now. I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 1.0690. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar. Today, I will raise my buy level slightly to 104.90/105.60 while leaving my wider 103.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I still do not want to be short the Dollar at this time.
Cash DAX
For the first trading session in two weeks, we saw a small reversal candle in the DAX. Now it may get bought as has been the norm over the past few months or maybe the start of a meaningful correction given out overbought the market is while at the same time trading outside the top of its Daily Bollinger Band. Yesterday the DAX traded lower to my 20320 T/P level on my latest 20400 short position, and I am now flat. Today, I will be a small seller from 20370/20470 with the same 20605 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the DAX at this time.
Cash FTSE
I am still flat the FTSE as the market again traded in a narrow range above 8310. Given how overbought the FTSE is trading I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 8190/8260 with the same 8125 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
Presently we are witnessing super easy financial conditions with speculative frenzy everywhere incompatible with the Fed’s claim that they are restrictive. With over $2 trillion in reverse repo drain over the past two years and a U.S. debt increase of over $4 trillion in the same time frame the flush of this liquidity has pumped the market construct to unseen levels into a new bubble where currently valuations are entirely ignored. And now let’s look forward to more liquidity in the form of coming tax cuts and rate cuts. Seriously what are the Fed thinking? Human history is rife with examples where asset bubbles collapsing has brought about disasters for the economy with Fed Chair Powell and his team blind to all this happening and letting things run out of control seems the epidemy of irresponsibility. I do not know of any December top for the stock market so the likelihood that any dip gets bought ahead of a major sell-off in the New Year. Overnight the Dow hit my 44370-buy level. As December has been a slow month in terms of points gained, I have now exited this position here at my 44438 revised T/P level and I am now flat. The Dow has further support below from 43900/44250 where I will again be a buyer with a wider 43695 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 44430.
Cash NASDAQ 100
It is frustrating having the correct view but not been able to make points out of this view. Having got stopped out of my latest NDX short position on Friday, the NDX fell over 200 points yesterday afternoon before having a small rally of this low into the close. I will now lower my NDX sell level to 21580/21780 with a lower 21905 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 21450. I still do not want to be long the NDX at this time.
March BUND
The Bund fell shy of yesterday’s buy range and I am still flat. I will not chase the price lower ahead of Wednesday’s American CPI Report. Therefore, I will continue to be a seller from 136.70/137.50 with the same 138.15 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Although Yields have risen seven basis points sine Thursday’s Commentary was posted I have no interesting in buying the market. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold closed 1% higher last night in New York following some aggressive buying by the Chinese. I still do not trust the price action in Gold given the fact that it already up nearly 30% for the year and as a result I have no interest in chasing the price higher. Therefore, I will continue to be a buyer from 2575/2592 with the same 2559 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 2608.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver rallied over 3% yesterday. As I have the same 32.20 long Silver position for the past three weeks which has never been in profit I used Monday’s move higher to exit this long position for a small loss at a price of 32.05 and I am now flat. Silver has support below from 30.50/31.30. I will be a small buyer on any dip to this area with the same 29.45 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
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