U.S. Equity Markets Stocks closed mostly firmer on Friday with both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 notching their third consecutive positive week and rising to fresh records following the November US jobs report, which keeps the Fed on course to cut at the December 18th announcement. Eyes now turn to the US CPI report on Wednesday to cement expectations, with current pricing suggesting an ~85% chance of a 25bps Fed rate cut at the upcoming meeting. U.S. President-elect Trump said he cannot guarantee that American people will not pay more as a result of tariffs, according to NBC’s ‘’Meet the Press’’. Over the weekend Syrian rebel fighters captured the capital Damascus and toppled Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Israeli official said in the coming days, Israel might capture more areas inside Syria, and further deepen the attacks against strategic targets in Syria, according to Kann news. Meanwhile, South Korean President Yoon survived an impeachment motion in the opposition-led Parliament on Saturday after members of his boycotted the vote. On Friday Fed Member Goolsbee said a gradual pace of cuts seems appropriate. Hopes the Fed gets to neutral by end-2025. Economic conditions will determine the pace of cuts. The speed at which the Fed is moving will probably slow as the debate proceeds on a stopping point. Will be watching rate sensitive sectors, and the lagged impact of policy, for signs that neutral is approaching. The outlook matters so when the Administration proposes new policies, the Fed will look at it. A single months’ data is not reliable, but if the Household Survey were to show deterioration, the Fed would look more closely, while Fed Member Daly said the labour market is in a good balanced position. Finally, Fed Member Hammack said the market view of one cut between November and late January is reasonable. The slowing pace of rate cuts allows Fed time to sound the economy. The economic landscape calls for ‘modestly restrictive’ monetary policy. Expect solid growth, low unemployment, and gradual inflation ebbing. Data will drive what the Fed does with monetary policy. Monetary policy is likely “somewhat restrictive”. Fed has more work to do to cool inflation. The economy is strong, and labour market is healthy. Labour market has become better balanced. Elsewhere, Oil closed lower by 1.61% while a stronger Dollar saw Gold end Friday with a 0.7% loss.
To mark my 3100th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was lost 220 points on Friday and is down by 116 points for December after closing November with a gain of 3049 points having finished October with a gain of 2179 points. September saw a gain of 4402 points following a 301-point loss for August after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.25% higher at a price of 6090.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 123 points lower for a 0.28% loss at a price of 44,642.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.92% higher at a price of 21,622.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.18% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.18% higher at a price of 39,160.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.16% higher.
The Euro closed 0.4% higher at $1.0568.
The British Pound closed 0.3% higher at 1.2742.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.3% closing at $149.97.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 7 basis points higher 2.11%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points higher at 4.28%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points lower at 4.16%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.61% lower at $67.20 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.7% lower at $2633 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence at 9.30 am. The only other data of note is U.S. Wholesale Inventories which will be released at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
A Market Watch headline on Friday stated that the ‘’World Economy has exited the ‘’boom and bust cycle’’. The article states the 2025 Global Outlook from Blackrock, which says the emergence of ‘’mega forces’’ and AI has essentially negated the business cycle. This is yet another throwback to the great stock market peaks throughout history, when there emerged a belief in the death of the business cycle. In 2000, the ‘’New Economy’’ was making headlines shortly before the dot-com crash. In February 2020 it was a similar high-plateau sentiment readings as in January 2007 before the market crashed over 30% in just five weeks. Just before the 2007 crash the Wall Street Journal: Many economists now subscribe to the brave new cycle, or a cycle in which ups and downs have become much more muted, largely thanks to the stabilising influence of new financial technology.’’ A month later the KBW Bank Index hit a high that led to a crash of 85% over the following 25 months. Similar sentiments after another manifestation of peak optimism and similar results in my opinion should follow. Friday was the fifth consecutive trading session of a negative or flat NYSE advance/decline ratio. During this time the S&P has made four new all-time intraday highs, highlighting the narrowness of the advance. The S&P’s closing high occurred on last Wednesday, Thursday and Friday with all three days attended by a negative NYSE a/d ratio. Internally the market is very weak as shown by the McClellan Oscillator which closed with a -27 print on Friday night. On Thursday the S&P traded lower to my 6070 T/P on my latest 6078 average short position. Subsequently I emailed my Platinum Members to sell the S&P again at a price of 6089. I will add to this trade on any further move higher to 6109 with a higher 6121 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now have a T/P level on this position at 6075. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The Euro hit a post NFP high at 1.0631 before falling 70 points into the New York close. This morning, the Euro is trading at 1.0550. I am still long the Euro at an average rate of 1.0665. Given how oversold the Euro I will continue to hold this position with no stop for now. I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 1.0690. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
My Dollar plan worked well as the market traded lower to my 105.70 buy level before rallying to my 106.10 T/P level and I am now flat. The Dollar has support from 104.80/105.50 where I will again be a buyer with 103.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
Wrong! The DAX rallied over 1000 points last week to end Friday with a gain of 4% despite the both the political and economic mess that Germany is in. This move higher sees the DAX trading in la la land above its Daily Bollinger Band. I know markets can stay irrational longer that I can remain solvent, but this move is ridiculous and costly. I was stopped out of my 20210 average short position at a price of 20305. Subsequently, I went short the DAX again at 20400. I am still short, and I will add to this position on any further move higher to 20500 with a now higher 20605 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will have a T/P level on this position at 20320. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
I am still flat the FTSE as the market again traded heavy. Given how overbought the FTSE is trading I will now lower my buy level to 8190/8260 with a lower 8125 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
All of the Dow Jones Averages – the Industrials, Transports, Utilities and the Composite closed lower on Friday. The bifurcation against the NDX continues with the NDX closing higher on Friday by 1% while the Dow ended Friday with a loss of 0.3%. The ‘’Hot Money’’ seems to switch to whatever Index is rising on a particular day. The Dow’s advance has so far been contained by the top of a trendline of the channel formed by the advance from early August. A very short-term downside target level of 44300 which is an ‘’Open Gap’’ from November 22. Any tag of this level may well attract some strong buying. Therefore, I will continue to be a buyer from 44080/44380 with the same 43945 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 44570.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Wrong! The relentless rally in the NDX saw my 21605-stop triggered near the close on my 21370 average short position and I am now flat. The NDX is now severely overbought with the 14 -Day RSI closing over 72. Given the backdrop I will continue to be a seller of rallies. The NDX has further short-term resistance from 21700/21900 where I will again be a seller with a higher 22015 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 21530.
March BUND
The Bund got hit hard on Friday and I am still flat as the market never came close to my sell range. This morning, the Bund is trading at 136.30. I will now lower my sell level to 136.70/137.50 with a lower 138.15 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Although Yields have risen seven basis points sine Thursday’s Commentary was posted I have no interesting in buying the market. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Since Gold fell 3% two weeks ago any rally above 2660 is met by some selling. I am still flat refusing to chase the market higher especially as I am still long Silver. Therefore, I will continue to be a buyer from 2575/2592 with the same 2559 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 2608.
Silver Rolling Contract
Despite Gold falling 0.7% on Friday, Silver traded in a narrow range. I am still long at an average price of 32.20 with the same 32.60 T/P level. Meanwhile, I will also leave my 29.45 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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