U.S. Equity Markets were bid throughout the U.S. session with notable outperformance in the NASDAQ 100 as tech and other heavyweight sectors outperformed, while the small cap Russell 2000 lagged, but still closed green. The majority of sectors were positive but Energy posted notable losses as crude prices slumped. The weak crude prices pared some of the recent geopolitical-induced rally with disappointing China NDRC updates overnight (lack of stimulus) hitting the demand side of the equation. Focus remains on geopolitics with crude prices settling off lows after an NBC report suggested that Iranian energy facilities are still a target under consideration by Israel, although Israeli officials suggest they will respond in a way that will not lead to an all-out war with Iran. T-Notes had pared some of the recent flattening with the 2s10s holding in positive territory. Meanwhile, the 3 Year Treasury Auction was very soft which initially hit the curve before paring into settlement to see the 10yr finish little changed. Attention turns to FOMC Minutes on Wednesday, US CPI on Thursday and PPI on Friday. In FX, the Dollar was flat while Sterling and the New Zealand saw mild outperformance after recent selling pressure in the Pound while attention overnight looks to the RBNZ rate decision. The Swiss Franc lagged while the Japanese Yen was little changed, trading either side of 148.00. In an FT interview, the NY Fed President gave his first policy related remarks since the September FOMC. Williams said that the US economy is well positioned for a soft landing and the current monetary policy stance is well positioned to both keep maintaining strength in the economy and labour market. He stressed the 50bps rate cut was right in September and is still right today. Looking ahead, Williams noted that a half-point rate cut in September was not the rule of how the Fed will act in the future, adding his goal was to move interest rates to a neutral setting that no longer dampened demand over time. Governor Kugler said she will support additional rate cuts if progress on inflation continues as expected; adding that policy will be data dependent. She stressed that if downside risks to employment escalates, cutting rates more quickly may be appropriate, whereas if incoming data does not provide confidence that inflation is moving to target, slowing normalisation may be appropriate. The Fed Governor wants a ‘balanced’ approach to inflation to avoid undesirable slowdown in labour market and economic growth, although she warned that Hurricane Helene, and Middle East events could impact the US economic outlook. On the September NFP report, she said it was very welcome and showed a healthy level of jobs, noting that labour market cooling has started and the Fed is looking at trends, not single data. Finally, the Atlanta Fed President (Bostic) said that the labour market has slowed down but it is not slow or weak, noting monthly job creation above what is needed to account for population growth. The economy is close to the Fed’s targets and moving closer, but inflation rate is still ‘quite a ways’ above 2%. There is a risk that the economy is too strong, and it could hamper policy recalibration. Meanwhile, businesses say that consumers have become much more price sensitive and curbing their ability to raise prices. Bostic also warned that hurricanes Helene and Milton potentially have significant implications for the economy over the next three to six months, and that changes in supply chains means business cost structures will also change, something Fed will need to understand. Elsewhere, Oil closed 4.17% lower while Gold was also weak finishing Tuesday with a 0.8% loss.
To mark my 3075th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat yesterday and is still ahead by 910 points for October after ending September with a gain of 4402 points following a 301-point loss for August after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.97% higher at a price of 5751.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 126 points higher for a 0.30% gain at a price of 42,080.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.55% higher at a price of 20,107.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.55% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.6% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1% lower at a price of 38,937.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.04% lower.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.0977.
The British Pound closed 0.1% higher at 1.3099.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.1% closing at $148.27.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points lower 2.25%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points lower at 4.19%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points lower at 4.01%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 4.17% lower at $73.92 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.8% lower at $2622 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the German Import/Export Price Index at 7.00 am followed by a speech from ECB Member Elderson at 9.30 am. Next, we have U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm and Wholesale Inventories at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have a 10-Year Note Auction at 6.00 pm and the FOMC Minutes from the September Rate Cut at 7.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
It is incredible that markets continue to ignore any negativity. Hurricane Milton is due to hit the West Coast of Florida this evening and markets do not care that this hurricane as the potential to be one of the most destructive in living memory especially if Tampa takes a direct hit. I am based in Marco Island which is 200 miles south of Tama and we had a mandatory evacuation order put in place yesterday morning. I am now in Miami. It is a large category 5 storm this evening that should weaken slightly ahead of making landfall. Not that I am looking for some sort of disaster for the S&P to break lower but I am just observing a confluence of factors that should have led to a sell-off at this stage. Even Bond Yields rising above 4% along with a strong Dollar have also been ignored. Some signal charts are turning which in the past was indicative of an S&P correction having begun but yesterday’s 50-Handle rally has the S&P within touching distance of its all-time high. Financial Conditions have also tightened but this is also ignored in comparison to the loosening conditions that we witnessed at the end of September/beginning of October which led to a strong rally. Yesterday’s late rally saw the whole of my sell range triggered for a now 5742 average short position. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 5728 as I want to be flat where possible ahead of this evening’s FOMC Minutes. I will leave my 5771 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The Euro tried to rally yesterday morning before a late sell-off saw the Euro closed unchanged in New York. I am still long at an average rate of 1.1015 with the same 1.0915 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’ I will now lower my T/P level to 1.1040. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
No Change: I am still short the Dollar from last Friday at an average rate of 102.40 with the same 103.15 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Meanwhile, I will leave my 102.10 T/P level unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members
Cash DAX
No Change. I am still flat the DAX. I do not like or trust the price action meaning that this market can break lower without warning. The DAX has short-term resistance from 19200/19300 where I will continue to be a small seller with the same 19405 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 19120.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE continues to trade heavy, ignoring any positive price action in the American Indexes. Yesterday’s move lower saw my buy range hit for a now 8215 long position. I will add to this trade on any further move lower to 8145 with a now lower 8085 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will also lower my T/P level to 8260. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat the Dow. As I am now back short the S&P, I will raise my Dow sell level ahead of the FOMC Minutes to 42500/42750 with a higher 42905 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 42310.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX never came close to yesterday’s buy range as thankfully we had no sell level in this market given the 1.55% rally. The NDX has short-term support from 19560/19720. I will now raise my buy level to this area with a higher 19395 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 19850.
December BUND
I am still flat as the Bund again traded in a narrow range. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any further dip lower to 132.20/133.00 with the same 131.55 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 133.60. I still no longer want to be short the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold hit a low at 2604 yesterday afternoon before having a small rally off this low into the New York close. I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a buyer from 2570/2588 with the same 2559 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2602.
Silver Rolling Contract
The sell-off in Gold saw Silver trade lower to my second buy level at 30.60 for a now 31.05 average long position. I will leave my 29.55 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 31.70. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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