U.S. Equity Markets saw broad-based gains on Tuesday (SPX +0.6%, DJIA +1.9%) although the Nasdaq 100 (flat) underperformed and was weighed on by Nvidia (-1.6%) weakness, while the Russell 2000 (+3.5%) continued its surge higher, which also saw the regional banking ETF KRE (+4.6%) record strong gains. On the day, US Retail Sales came in hotter than expected, and the Control print soared 0.9% (exp. 0.2%, prev. 0.4%), and also above the most optimistic analyst forecast of 0.5% – the strong Control number will likely have a positive impact on Q2 GDP. In the wake of the data, the Dollar saw notable strength and Treasuries saw weakness, although both pared their respective moves through the US afternoon. Spot Gold printed a fresh record high of around USD 2469/oz, and the crude complex was lower, albeit settling off lows, as it was weighed on by post-retail sales Dollar strength and ongoing China problems. Elsewhere, Canadian CPI was cooler-than-expected ahead of the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Meeting next week, while import prices were flat in June, above forecasts, but export prices fell deeper than expected. On the Fed footing, Kugler (voter) toed a neutral line, with attention turning to Waller (Wed) and Williams (Fri). Sectors were largely in the green with only Technology and Communications in the red, while Industrials and Materials were the clear outperformers. In terms of notable earnings, Bank of America (+5.4%) beat on EPS and revenue and expects NII to rise in Q3 & Q4, while Charles Schwab (-10.2%) bank deposits and net interest revenue declined. Looking ahead, Barkin, Waller, IP, and a 20 Year Treasury Auction are on Wednesday. Retail Sales came in hotter than expected with the headline print at 0.0%, above the -0.3% forecast while ex-autos metric rose by 0.4%, above the exp. 0.0%, accelerating from the upwardly revised 0.1% print in May. The ex-gas/autos metric rose by 0.8%, accelerating from the prior 0.3% (revised up from 0.1%). The Retail Control print soared 0.9%, above the 0.2% forecast and 0.4% prior, and also above the most optimistic analyst forecast of 0.5% – the strong Control number will likely have a positive impact on Q2 GDP. Looking into the report, the Nonstore Retailers monthly sales rose 1.9%, while Building Materials and supplies rose by 1.4%. On the downside, Motor Vehicle tumbled 2.0% while gasoline stations fell 3.0% M/M. Analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics highlight that the real consumption data in the national accounts are derived partly from the auto, control and food services of this report. Pantheon adds that “The net upward revision to retail sales today suggests that the estimate of three-month-on-three-month annualised growth in real consumption in May will be revised up to 1.8%, from 1.5%, all else equal”. Pantheon suggests that with the combination of the retail sales data, and their forecasts for the services components, they suspect real consumption rose 0.2% in June, and at a Q/Q annualised rate of 2.1% in Q2, above the 1.5% rate in Q1. Meanwhile, the NAHB Housing Market Index for July fell to 42.0 from the expected, and prior, 43.0. Current single-family home sales and index of prospective buyers ticked lower to 47 (prev. 48) and 27 (prev. 28), respectively, while home sales over the next six months marginally lifted to a 48 from 47 in June. On the data set, despite expectations that mortgage rates will decline later in 2024, homebuilders were slightly more negative. Oxford Economics notes, that while housing starts have softened, the signal from the NAHB’s homebuilder sentiment index has been overly weak in the last several months, and as such Oxford looks for a modest and gradual recovery in housing starts in H2 2024. Moreover, and as the consultancy notes, the dip in homebuilder assessment reflected a deterioration in builders’ assessment of buyer traffic and current home sales. Homebuilders continue to use incentives such as price cuts to encourage sales with mortgage rates still close to 7%, and ahead the use of incentives will provide a cushion for new home sales. Elsewhere, Oil 1.33% lower, while Gold surged to new all-time highs with a 1.9% gain.
To mark my 3025th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 105 points yesterday and is now ahead by 349 points for July after closing June with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.64% higher at a price of 5667.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 742 points higher for a 1.85% gain at a price of 40,954.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.06% higher at a price of 20,398.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.97% lower.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% lower.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 0.43% lower at a price of 41,097.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.02% higher.
The Euro closed 0.05% higher at $1.0899.
The British Pound closed 0.02% higher at 1.2975.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.05% closing at $158.42.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 3 basis points lower 2.44%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points lower at 4.05%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 6 basis points lower at 4.16%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.33% lower at $80.82 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.9% higher at $2468 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of U.K. CPI for June which rose 2% Y/Y versus +1.9% expected. Next, we have Euro-Zone CPI at 10.00 am, followed by a 30-Year German Bund Auction at 10.30 am. This is followed by U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm and Housing Starts/Building Permits at 1.30 pm. Next, we have Industrial Production and Capacity Utilisation at 2.15 pm. Finally, we have a speech from Fed Member Waller at 2.35 pm, a 20 Year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm and the Fed’s Beige Book at 7.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Yesterday’s incredible 3.5% rally in the Russell 2000 sees this key Index rise almost 12% in the past five trading sessions. The last time this happened was in April 2000 before the market crashed. I have made a successful living out of selling stock markets over the past 30 years when the 14 Day RSI hits a 73 print. With the exception of the NDX (due to its recent correction) the RSI for the major Indexes is at 80 or higher. This is not sustainable with history telling us that buying vertical moves higher always ends in large losses. The S&P closed at a new all-time high last night with the market now trading outside the top of both its Daily and Weekly Bollinger Bands. I just cannot be long against this backdrop. While I am never comfortable in shorting markets the case for been short is growing stronger by the day. The McClellan Oscillator has surged over the past week and it too closed overbought last night at +240. Yesterday’s move higher saw my next sell level at 5662 triggered for a now 5606 average short position. This morning, the S&P is trading at 5640. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 5595. I will leave my 5705 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
No Change: The Euro continues to trade in a narrow range, and I am still flat. The Euro has strong resistance from 1.0980/1.1060 where I will be an aggressive seller with a 1.1115 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.0770/1.0840 with the same 1.0695 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.0920. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.0890.
Dollar Index
The Dollar never came close to yesterday’s buy range, and I am still flat. The Dollar has support from 102.90/103.70. I will raise my buy level to this area with a higher 102.15 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Dollar at this time.
Cash DAX
The DAX continues to trade heavy, and I am still flat. As I am aggressively short the S&P, I am reluctant to chase the DAX lower despite the chart showing a potential Head & Shoulders Pattern and a bear flag. I will only lower my sell level slightly to 18690/18790 with a lower 18905 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the market at this time. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members. I am taken short; I will have a T/P level at 18610.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE hit a low this morning at a price of 8125 before spending the rest of Tuesday trading sideways to higher. Given how heavy the market is trading I decided to exit my latest 8150 long position at my revised 8180 T/P level, and I am still flat. The FTSE has strong support from 8060/8120 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 7995 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Dow Rolling Contract
Wow! Yesterday’s 750-point surge saw the Dow close at a new all-time high. This latest rally saw the 14 Day RSI close at 80. I cannot remember the last time the RSI for the Dow was this high. Yesterday afternoon, I emailed my Platinum Members to go short the Dow at a price of 40830. I am still short, and I will add to this position on any further move higher to 41080 with no stop for now. I will have a T/P level on this position at 40710. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
This morning the latest sell off in the NDX saw the market hit my 20225-buy level. I am still long with a now lower 20310 T/P level. I will add to this position on any further move lower to 20075. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
September BUND
The Bund never came close to yesterday’s buy range as it continues to build value above last week’s 130.50 support level. I will now raise my buy level to 130/90/131.60 with a higher 129.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 132.15.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold continues to build value above 2400 and I am still flat. Today I will again raise my buy level to 2397/2412 with a higher 2383 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
My Silver plan worked well as the market sold off to my 30.50 buy level before rallying to my 31.25 T/P level and I am now flat. Silver continues to underperform Gold which makes me reluctant to chase the market higher. Silver has support from 29.60/30.40 where I will again be a seller with the same 28.55 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
.
Recent Comments