U.S. Equity Markets closed mixed on Tuesday (SPX +0.4%, DJIA -0.8%) as the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (+1.3%) recouped some of its recent losses, as it was led higher by Nvidia (NVDA) (+6.8%) snapping its three-day losing streak. Small-cap Russell 2000 (-0.5%) saw losses and gave back some of Monday’s strength. Once again, it was a fairly quiet day as participants await the next AI risk event of Micron (MU) earnings this afternoon, and of course the eagerly anticipated core PCE numbers on Friday. Nonetheless, Fed Governor’s Bowman and Cook did little to alter the dial, and toed the usual Fed line, whereby the former was her usual hawkish self and confirmed she is one of the four dots who see no rate cuts this year. On the data footing, Richmond Fed notably declined, while US Consumer Confidence dipped, but was better than expected. Elsewhere in North America, Canadian CPI was hotter-than-expected which sparked saw brief Canadian Dollar strength. Elsewhere, the Dollar saw marginal gains and within contained ranges, while WTI and Brent were lower, albeit within tight ranges in light energy-specific news flow. Lastly, T-Notes were seemingly hit on hot Canadian headline inflation and potential concession into the week’s supply, which kicked off with the 2 Year Note Auction on Tuesday, which overall was slightly better-than-average. The Conference Board’s gauge of US Consumer Confidence surpassed expectations as it printed 100.4 in June (exp. 100.0), albeit falling from the prior, revised lower, 101.3. Present Situation Index rose to 141.5 (prev. 140.8), however the forward-looking Expectations Index dipped to 73.0 from 74.9. The report noted, “Confidence pulled back in June but remained within the same narrow range that’s held throughout the past two years, as strength in current labour market views continued to outweigh concerns about the future. However, if material weaknesses in the labour market appear, Confidence could weaken as the year progresses”. Elsewhere, average 12-month inflation expectations marginally fell to 5.3% (prev. 5.4%), with write-in responses revealing that elevated prices, especially for food and groceries, continued to impact consumers’ views of the economy, followed by the labour market and US political situation. In addition, slightly fewer participants said jobs “were hard to get” compared to the prior month, but also less participants thought business conditions were “good” M/M, meanwhile looking ahead consumers were less optimistic about the short-term business conditions outlook. Richmond Fed Composite Manufacturing Index fell to -10 (prev. 0) in June, with two of its three components declining – shipments and new orders tumbled to -9 (prev. 13) and -17 (prev. -6), respectively, while Employment lifted to -2 from -6. On the inflationary footing, prices paid and received both jumped to 4.01 (prev. 2.92) and 2.58 (prev. 1.63), with the forward-looking expectations also rising, albeit to a lesser extent. Firms grew notably less optimistic about local business conditions, as the Index fell to -15 (prev. 3), however, looking ahead it increased to 10 (prev. 6). In addition, the future indices for shipments and new orders remained solidly in positive territory, suggesting that firms continued to expect improvements in these areas over the next six months. Vendors lead time and backlog of orders remained negative, as did the forward looking indicators. Meanwhile, Governor Bowman stressed the Fed is not yet at the point where it is appropriate to cut rates, noting the baseline outlook continues to be inflation will return to 2% with the policy rate held steady for some time. She did note that should data show inflation is moving sustainably to 2%, it will eventually become appropriate to gradually lower the policy rate. However, she remains willing to raise the target rate at a future meeting if inflation progress stalls or reverses. She said she will remain cautious in her approach to future changes in the policy stance. She stated that there has only been modest further progress on US inflation seen this year (in fitting with the Fed statement), and she expects inflation to remain elevated for some time, and she still sees a number of upside inflation risks. She also explained that the labour market remains tight, despite some further rebalancing. Bowman repeated her call that she does not see any rate cuts for 2024, confirming she is one of the four dots who see no rate cuts this year. Elsewhere, Oil fell 1.03% while Gold closed flat following a quiet session.
To mark my 3000th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 17 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1910 points for June, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.39% higher at a price of 5472.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 299 points lower for a 0.76% loss at a price of 39,112.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.16% higher at a price of 19,701.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.23% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.95% higher at a price of 39,173.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.16% higher.
The Euro closed 0.2% lower at $1.0710.
The British Pound closed 0.05% lower at 1.2680.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.1% closing at $159.72.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points lower 2.41%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points lower at 4.07%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 2 basis points lower at 4.25%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.03% lower at $80.79 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.2% lower at $2318 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German GFK Consumer Confidence at 7.00 am followed a by a speech from ECB Member Lane at 11.40 am. Next, we have U.S. MBA Mortgage Application at 12.00 pm and New Home Sales at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have a five-year Treasury Auction at 6.00 pm and the Bank Stress test Info after the close at 9.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
If nothing else markets in 2024 are an interesting intellectual puzzle to navigate through. Last night the S&P closed less than 1% from all-time highs and yet the $NYSE stochastic is maximum oversold. The key technical signal is as oversold as it was during last October and this Aprils’ lows. How can one justify a short position under this scenario. It did not take long for Nvidia to reverse some of its 16% three-day losing streak by closing 7% higher last night. While the NDX rose over 1% the Dow closed lower leaving the S&P again to fend of both bullish and negative forces in the middle. I am still flat the S&P. I will now raise my buy level to 5433/5249 with a higher 5417 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
The Euro just missed my 1.0690 buy level by one point before having a small 25-point rally into the close. Today I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.0610/1.0690 with the same 1.0555 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.0740.
Dollar Index
No Change. We have short-term resistance from 105.90/106.60 where I will still be a seller with the same 107.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 105.55.
Cash DAX
The DAX opened lower and proceeded to trade in a narrow range for the rest of the session. I am still flat. I do not want to chase the market higher. Therefore, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 17900/17990 with the same 17795 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 18070.
Cash FTSE
Just before the New York close the FTSE traded lower to my 8220-buy level before rallying to my revised 8237 T/P level and I am now flat. Although the FTSE fell 80 points yesterday I still do not want to be short the market. Today, I will again be a buyer on any further dip lower to 8110/8180 with a lower 8045 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Dow Rolling Contract
The rotation into tech stocks saw the Dow closed over 300 points lower yesterday. The sell-off saw the market hit my buy range for a now 39180 long position. I will look to add to this trade at 38900 while leaving my tight 38795 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 39280. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Unfortunately, the powers that be could not let the NDX even test my buy area before rallying straight after I posted early yesterday morning. I will now raise my buy level to 19430/19580 with a higher 19295 wider Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 19700. I still do not want to be short the NDX at this time.
September BUND
The Bund traded in a narrow 40-point range yesterday and I am still flat. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 131.50/132.10 with the same 130.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still no longer want to be short the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
Following Friday’s sell-off, Gold traded in a narrow range again yesterday and I am still flat. I still have no edge in Gold at this time. As I am back long Silver, I do not want to chase the market higher, preferring to only be a buyer on any dip lower to 2272/2288 with the same 2259 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2302.
Silver Rolling Contract
Tuesday saw a late sell-off in Silver as the market hit my buy range for a now 28.90 long position. I will add to this position on any further move lower to 28.10 while leaving my 27.55 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 29.50. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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