U.S. Equities closed on Tuesday following a late rally into the close led by (SPX +0.3%, NDX flat, DJIA +0.2%, RUT +0.2%) as SPX climbed to another record high with Nvidia topping Microsoft’s market cap. Sectors were largely in the green with Financials and Tech sitting atop of the pile and Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials the only ones in the red. On the day, there was a deluge of Fed speak, although they garnered little market reaction as they ultimately toed a similar line to Fed Chair Powell, while on the data footing US Retail Sales were softer than expected, but on the contrary Industrial Production was better than forecasted. Moreover, after the aforementioned Retail Sales T-Notes were bid across the curve, and saw even further impetus after a stellar US 20 Year Bond Auction. In FX, the Dollar was choppy but climbed off retail sales-induced lows with the Swiss Franc and Australian Dollar the clear G10 outperformers with the latter buoyed by a hawkish language from the RBA. The crude complex was firmer, continuing on Monday’s extensive gains, in thin energy-specific newsflow as geopolitical headlines took a back seat. Looking ahead, it is Juneteenth market holiday in the US on Wednesday so US players will be out for the day, and as such the calendar docket is very thin with only NAHB Housing Market Index scheduled. Retail sales was softer than expected with downward revisions to the prior month. The headline M/M rose just 0.1%, up from the prior -0.2% (initially 0.0%) read but beneath the 0.3% forecast, matching the most pessimistic estimates too. The core measure (ex-autos & parts) declined by 0.1% despite expectations for a 0.2% gain, matching the pace of last month’s decline (initially 0.2%). The super core metric (ex gas, autos and parts) rose 0.1%, vs. the prior decline of 0.3% (initially -0.1%). The control metric however rose 0.4%, in line with expectations but the prior was revised down to -0.5% from -0.3%. Looking within the report, the upside was led by Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, & bookstores, rising 2.8%, Clothing & clothing accessories stores rose by 0.9% while Nonstore retailers rose by 0.8%, as did motor vehicle and parts dealers. On the flipside, the largest decline was seen in Gasoline stations, -2.2%, while Furniture and home furniture stores declined by 1.1%, with Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers dipping 0.8%. The overall soft retail sales number adds to more evidence of a softening consumer although do note the Q2 24 Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker was unchanged at 3.1% post-data, while perhaps the control group was not as soft as the rest of the data. Money markets are still fully pricing in the first 25bp rate cut by the Fed by November, with a c. 72% probability of a cut occurring in September. Looking ahead, analysts at ING “expect consumer spending to continue cooling through this year as flat real household disposable incomes constrain spending power while the exhaustion of pandemic-era accrued savings means there are fewer resources from this pot to keep spending going”. The desk adds that if they see more evidence of consumer cooling, coupled with further gains in the unemployment rate, and M/M core inflation at 0.2% or lower, then a September rate cut will clearly be on the table for discussion. Industrial production rose 0.9% in May (prev. 0.0%), above the expected 0.3% and the top end of the forecast range of 0.7%. Manufacturing output also lifted 0.9% (prev. -0.4%, exp. +0.3%), with capacity utilisation ticking higher to 78.7% (exp. 78.6%) from 78.2%. After the data set, Oxford Economics notes IP is forecasted to remain unchanged this year after inching 0.2% higher in 2023, but the better-than-expected May reading creates upside risk to its near-term forecast. Moreover, the consultancy adds, “After an uneven start to the year, Industrial Production will edge higher during the remainder of 2024. However, it won’t take off meaningfully until next year after the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle gets underway.” Oxford adds manufacturing led May’s sharp uptick in industrial production, while warmer than usual weather boosted utilities output. Mining output inched higher but still has not returned to levels prevailing before severe winter storms disrupted the sector in January. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 1.56% while Gold ended Tuesday with a small 0.5% gain.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat yesterday and is still ahead by 1578 points for June, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.25% higher at a price of 5487.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 56 points higher for a 0.15% gain at a price of 38,834.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.03% higher at a price of 19,908.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.69% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1% higher at a price of 38,482.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.01% lower.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.0738.
The British Pound closed 0.1% higher at 1.2708.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.1% closing at $157.87.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points lower 2.40%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 6 basis points lower at 4.06%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 5 basis points lower at 4.23%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.56% higher at $81.58 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.5% higher at $2329 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the U.K. CPI and PPI at 7.00 am. Next, we have Euro-Zone Trade Account at 9.00 and Construction Output at 10.00 am. Despite the U.S. Markets been closed today, we still have MBA Mortgage Applications at 12.00 pm and the NAHB Housing Market Index at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Although the RSI closed at 76 last night the S&P is still lagging the large gains made in the NDX over the past few months. The CASH Equity Markets are closed to fay for the Juneteenth Holiday while the Futures Markets on the Gray Market will have a shortened trading session. I am still short the S&P from Monday at an average rate of 5460 with the same no stop. I will now raise my T/P level to 5446. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with anew update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still flat as the Euro again traded in a narrow range. Today, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.0610/1.0680 with the same 1.0565 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.0740.
Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar as the market traded in a narrow range over the past 24 hours. This morning, the Dollar is trading unchanged at 105.31 as I go to press. We have resistance from 105.80/106.40 where I will be a seller with a 107.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still no longer want to be long the Dollar at this time.
Cash DAX
I am still flat the DAX. The market had a small rally, yesterday trading higher at a price of 18150 this morning as I go to press. I will now raise my buy level to 17900/17980 with a higher 17795 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 18050.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE never came close to yesterday’s buy range and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 8090/8160 with a higher 8035 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with anew update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat as the Dow never came close to yesterday’s buy range having traded in a narrow range over the past 24 hours. I will not chase the Dow higher, leaving my 34410/34660 buy level unchanged with the same 38195 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NASDAQ traded in a narrow range yesterday and I am still flat. The NDX 14 -Day RSI closed at a reading of 82 last night. History tells us we cannot be short the market when we have exaggerated readings as we have now. I am still short at an average rate of 19720 with a now higher 19610 T/P level. I still do not want to be long the NDX at this time. I will leave my 20005 ”Closing Stop” unchanged for now.
September BUND
The Bund traded in a narrow range yesterday and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 131.10/131.90 with a higher 130.45 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a seller on any further rally to 133.40/134.10 with the same 134.85 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold traded in a narrow range again yesterday and I am still flat. I have no interest in chasing the price of Gold higher especially as I have a large, long Silver position at this time. Therefore, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 2272/2288 with the same 2259 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2302.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still long Silver at an average rate of 29.40 with the same 28.25 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. Meanwhile, I will leave my T/P level on this position unchanged at 29.80. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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