U.S. Equity Markets managed to claw back some of the prior week’s losses, with a rebound in Nvidia (NVDA) shares and in Semi-Conductors supportive of the move, underpinning technology outperformance. Elsewhere gold and oil prices were lower on a lack of geopolitical escalation seen over the weekend which also weighed on Treasuries overnight. T-notes eventually settled flat, paring the overnight losses as it tracked the bund higher ahead of a plethora of key risk events. In FX, the Dollar was flat while the Japanese Yen hit a 34-year low versus the Dollar ahead of the Bank of Japan later this week. Antipodes and Canadian Dollar meanwhile outperformed on the risk revival. Focus this week lies on a plethora of earnings, Tier 1 US data, including GDP and PCE, as well as the Bank of Japan rate decision. Elsewhere, Oil closed 0.6% lower while Gold got hit hard falling 2.6% yesterday. The Gold sell-off has continued overnight with the precious metal falling a further 1% to sit at $2300 this morning.
To mark my 2975th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was made 145 points yesterday and is now ahead by 3252 points for April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.87% higher at a price of 5010.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 253 points higher for a 0.67% gain at a price of 38,239.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.02% higher at a price of 17,210.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.60% higher.
This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% higher.
This Morning, the Nikkei closed 0.3% higher at a price of 37,552.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.06% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.0661.
The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.2356.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.1% closing at $154.80.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points lower at 2.49%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 3 basis points lower at 4.20%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points lower at 4.61%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.6% lower at $81.90 a barrel.
Gold closed 2.6% lower at $2327.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German, Euro-Zone, U.K. and U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 8.30 am, 9.00 am, 9.30 am and 2.45 pm respectively. The only other data of note is U.S. New Home Sales and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index which will be released at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Despite the VIX falling 9.5% yesterday, we saw plenty of two-way price action. Monday’s ‘’snapback’’ in the S&P carried to a price of 5039, before falling 30 Handles into the Chicago close. The McClellan Oscillator improved substantially, closing last night at -61. This is the fourth consecutive trading that the MO has improved from last Tuesday’s -292 print. When the $NYSI data is released later this morning, it will show this key signal as maximum oversold while the 14-Day RSI for the $BPSPX is at a severely oversold 14. Bulls have six trading sessions to rescue what has been an ugly sell-off in April. Meanwhile the Semi-Conductors are at their most oversold levels since October 2022. From where I sit, it is extremely difficult to be short the S&P and NDX at these levels. Tesla shares which have been hammered over the past few months are reporting their earnings after the close setting up the NDX for another volatile overnight session. I exited my latest 4998 average long S&P position at my revised 5001 T/P level and I am still flat. Today, I will be a buyer on any further dip lower to 4983/4998 with a tight 4969 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 5015. I still do not want to be short the S&P at this time.
EUR/USD
No Change. I am still long the Euro from last Friday at 1.0630. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.0670. I will add to this position at 1.0550 while leaving my 1.0495 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
No Change: The Daily Sentiment Index for the Dollar closed at 91 for the third consecutive trading session which is a rare occurrence. last night. The DSI’s current extreme suggests that prices are nearing a short-term high. I am still short the Dollar at 106.05. I will add to this position at 106.85 while leaving my 107.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. Meanwhile I will leave my 105.60 T/P level unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
European Indexes are ignoring the weakness in their American counterparts. Both the DAX and FTSE surged yesterday, and I am still flat. The DAX has support from 17800/17900. I will now raise my buy level to this area with a higher 17725 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the market at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE is trading at 8070 this morning and I am still flat as the market never came close to yesterday’s buy range. Positive comments in relation to Interest Rate cuts from Bank of England Officials is underpinning the equity market. I will now raise my FTSE buy level to 7950/8020 with a higher 7885 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
After the Dow hit my sell range for a 38400 short position, we had a small sell-off to my revised 38330 T/P level and I am now flat. The Dow has now rallied over 1000 points off last Friday’s low print. The Dow has further resistance from 38480/38730 where I will again be a seller with a higher 38905 ‘’Closing Stop’’ I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
No Change. The NDX hit a low at 17006 before thankfully rallying over 200 points off this level into the close. I am still long at an average rate of 17590 with the same 17350 exit level. If this exit is hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March BUND
My Bund plan worked well as the market traded lower to my 130.60 aggressive buy level before rallying to my revised 131.05 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be an aggressive buyer on any further move lower to 129.90/130.70 with a higher 129.25 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Despite the negative price action, I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold saw follow through on Friday’s reversal, closing last night at a price of 2327. Overnight, Gold sold off further, sitting at 2300 as I go to press. Gold has support below from 2270/2285 where I will be a small buyer with a tight 2255 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2302. I no longer want to be short Gold at this time.
Silver Rolling Contract
The weakness in Gold saw Silver hit my second buy level at 26.90 this morning, for a now 27.30 average long position. I am still positive on Silver as I look for the market to eventually break its April 12 high of 29.83. I will have a T/P level at 28.10 on this position while leaving my 25.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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