Equity Markets were firmer on Wednesday thanks to a late session rip into the close with month-end selling not as large as expected, perhaps indicative of the bulk of it being in the rearview now ahead of the long weekend. There was no tier one data or major catalysts to set the tone ahead of Fed’s Waller later at the Economic Club of New York on Wednesday at 18:00ET. Treasuries rallied further, ultimately in a bull-flattener in thin trade, where the strong 7-Year Auction marked the low in yields for the session. The Dollar Index was flat, while the Yen closed marginally firmer after more Japanese official commentary/actions that are believed to preface FX intervention. The Euro was flat, despite some strong gains in EGBs, coming on the heels of the as-expected rise in headline Spanish CPI, and a softer core reading, ahead of other EU member state figures due next week. Gold was ultimately firmer, aided by the lower yields, but did see some notable weakness earlier on Reuters reports India had slashed its gold imports for the latest month by 90% amid high prices. Oil prices were lower, albeit closed off worst levels, amid bearish US inventory figures in a holiday-thinning trading environment. A strong 7 Year Auction from the Treasury, adding to the 5 Year on Tuesday, with USD 43 billion sold at 4.185%, more expensive than last month’s 4.327% and seeing solid demand despite 7s trading at relatively rich on the 5s7s10s fly, albeit it offers more appeal on the 2s7s10s and 2s10s30s fly. Elsewhere, Oil closed flat while a late rally saw Gold end Wednesday with a 0.8% gain.
To mark my 2975th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 90 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2193 points for March. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.86% higher at a price of 5248.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 477 points higher for a 1.22% gain at a price of 39,760.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.39% higher at a price of 18,280.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.13% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.6% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.90% higher at a price of 40,762.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.07% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.0821.
The British Pound closed 0.1% higher at 1.2633.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.1% closing at $151.39.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 6 basis points lower at 2.29%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 3 basis points lower at 3.94%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points lower at 4.20%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.18% lower at $81.47 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.8% higher at $2192.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German Retail Sales and U.K GDP at 7.00 am. Next, we have German Unemployment at 8.55 am followed at 9.00 am by Euro-Zone M3 Money Supply. At 12.30 pm we have U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, GDP and Personal Income. This is followed by the Chicago Fed Purchasing Managers’ Survey at 1.45 pm and Pending Home Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 2.00 pm. Finally, we have the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P was trading in a narrow range for most of yesterday before exploding 25 Handles in the last 45 minutes of trading. This move higher saw my 5250-sell level triggered. I am still short, and I will now add to this position at 5268 with a now higher 5281 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will have a 5138 T/P level on this position. I will continue to be a buyer on any large move lower to 5140/5156 with the same tight 5129 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
No Change. I am still long the Euro at an average rate of 1.0845 with the same 1.0875 T/P level. I will leave my 1.0745 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
I am still short the Dollar from last week at an average rate of 103.65. The Dollar closed last night in New York at 104.32. I will leave my ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged at 104.45, while raising my T/P level to 103.60. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
No Change. What Recession as indicated by the Bundesbank last week? The result another new all-time high in the DAX again with the market now trading above 18500. This relentless move higher is similar to 2015 when the Weekly RSI was at 79 as it is today. In April of that year the market fell apart losing over 10% in a two-week period. I am going to stay flat the DAX until after the Easter break. I cannot buy the market here given how fried to the upside the RSI is while trying to pick a top is extremely difficult. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
No Change. The FTSE never came close to yesterday’s sell range, and I am still flat. The FTSE has strong resistance from 8010/8080 where I will continue to be a seller with the same tight 8135 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 7780/7850 with the same 7725 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well as the market rallied to my 39600-sell level before falling over 150 points. This move lower saw my revised 39510 T/P level triggered and I am now flat. Ahead of the long weekend, my only interest in selling the Dow is on a further rally higher to 40050/40300 with a wider 40505 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 39860. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Frustratingly, the NDX missed yesterday’s buy level by less than 30 points before having nice 150-point rally off its afternoon low into the close and I am still flat. As I am now short the S&P, I will raise my NDX buy level to 18060/18210 with a higher 17955 ‘’Wider Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the NDX at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March BUND
I am still flat the Bund as the market never came close to yesterday’s buy range. This morning, the Bund is trading higher at 133.20. I will now raise my buy level to 132.00/132.70 with a higher 131.35 ”Closing Stop”. Despite Bund Yields trading at incredibly low levels I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold traded in a narrow range yesterday and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 2154/2169 with a higher 2139 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2180.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: Silver struggled to follow Gold higher yesterday, before having a small 40 points sell-off into the close. Last Week’s Commitment of Traders Report revealed that Larger Speculators have aggressively bought Silver’s rally over the past three weeks. Large Specs were net-long 10.77% of total non-spreading Open Interest on March 4. They are now long 36.32% of Open Interest, more than tripling their bets which is concerning for the bullish case. This week’s size is the largest net-long position in over four years, since February 24, 2020. As a result, I will now lower my T/P level on my 24.85 average long position to 25.10. I will leave my 23.65 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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