U.S. Equity Markets closed red on Monday, although well off the morning lows. The Russell 2000 closed green on account of the Energy Sector outperformance with crude prices rising. Lows were seen in the Futures pre-market with tech downside leading on several key reports, chip names AMD and INTC were initially hit on China phasing out US microprocessors from government PCs and servers. Nvidia was lower pre-market after GOOG, INTC and QCOM announced they were planning to battle NVDA’s dominance in AI. Meanwhile, the EU is also opening investigations into big tech names. Nonetheless, a lot of these stocks pared earlier weakness which helped the NASDAQ recover to finish only slightly lower on the day. Treasuries were lower across the curve ahead of supply this week as well as some key data & Fed speakers, including Waller on Wednesday, while Powell speaks on Good Friday, after the PCE data. There was a slew of Fed speakers, Bostic after-hours on Friday was hawkish noting he now only sees one cut this year (prev. two), while Goolsbee echoed Powell by noting the inflation reports do not change the overall picture. Cook stuck to the script, noting risks between meeting the dual mandate are coming back into better balance. Data saw US Existing Home Sales marginally miss expectations while the U.S. 2 Year Treasury Auction was in line with recent averages. In FX, the Dollar was sold while Chinese Yuan was bid after a firmer PBoC fixing overnight and on reports of State-owned banks selling Dollars after the notable weakness seen at the tail end of last week. The Aussie also prospered on the Yuan strength while the Japanese Yen was ultimately flat despite officials jawboning overnight; Japan’s top currency diplomat Kanda says have been closely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency and will take appropriate steps to respond to excessive weakness of the Yen without excluding any measures. Crude prices were bid on rising geopolitical tensions after the Moscow terrorist attack and also on supply updates after Reuters reported that Russia has told oil companies to cut output to 9 million BPD by the end of June, in line with OPEC+ pledges. New Home Sales in February printed 662k, marginally down from the prior, revised lower, 664k and beneath the expected 675k. New home supply slightly rose to 8.4 months’ worth (prev. 8.3 months’ worth) with the median sale price declining 7.6% M/M to USD 400.5k in part due to homebuilder price cuts, although Oxford Economics note the share of builders offering price reductions is fading and that a decline in the average size of new homes is also contributing to weakening new home prices. In addition, Oxford Economics expects the pace of new home sales to trend higher over the balance of 2024, with sales supported by lower mortgage rates, increased supply, and a relative scarcity of existing homes for sale. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 1.69% while Gold traded in a narrow range before ending Monday with a small 0.3% gain.
To mark my 2950th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 215 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2006 points for March. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.31% lower at a price of 5218.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 162 points lower for a 0.41% loss at a price of 39,313.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.34% lower at a price of 18,277.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.04% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% lower.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1.16% lower at a price of 40,414.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.20% lower.
The Euro closed 0.3% higher at $1.0838.
The British Pound closed 0.2% higher at 1.2637.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.02% closing at $151.43.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points higher at 2.37%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points lower at 3.99%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 5 basis points higher at 4.25%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.69% higher at $81.99 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.3% higher at $2173.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German GFK Consumer Confidence at 7.00 am. Next, we have U.S. Durable Goods Orders at 12.30 pm, followed by Existing Home Sales at 1.00 pm. At 2.00 pm we have Consumer Confidence and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Finally, at 7.00 pm we have a speech from ECB Member Lane.
Cash S&P 500
I spent some time over the weekend studying the S&P charts and looking back at a lot of historic charts. This is the longest consecutive rally for the S&P in history. We have now gone 107 trading sessions without a 2% correction. The March seasonal weakness that I was looking for never happened while the Weekly RSI is now as bullish as it was before the COVID crash when the S&P fell 35% in six weeks. Of course the main reason for this is the loose financial conditions. These conditions are the most loose in history against a backdrop of rising inflation which again the Fed (and in particular Powell) have chosen to ignore which is unforgiveable in my opinion. Both the $NYSI and $NYMO are maximum overbought against a background of massive negative divergence. History tells us that when this has happened in the past it has been met by a serious correction. Even just a 5% correction would only see the 50 Day Moving Average at 5018 tagged. As I have said for the past two weeks how can one justify a long position given these divergences. I can’t and I am like a lot of traders at this stage waiting patiently for a correction that we can buy. The S&P has now left a record 13 ‘’Open Gaps’’ going back to the 4120 level from lows at the end of October. I am still short the S&P at an average rate of 5217. Ahead of the Easter Weekend when liquidity will again dry up, I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 5208. stop. I will now have a ‘’Closing Stop’’ on this position at 5263 for now. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
At least the Euro had a small rally yesterday. I am still long at an average rate of 1.0845 with a now lower 1.0875 T/P level. I will leave my 1.0745 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
I am still short the Dollar from last week at an average rate of 103.65. The Dollar closed last night in New York at 104.18. I will leave my 104.45 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged, while raising my T/P level to 103.50. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
I am still flat the DAX as the market traded in a narrow range before having a small rally into the European Close. I will now raise my sell level slightly to 18350/18440 while leaving my 18505 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 18265.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE never came close to yesterday’s sell range and I am still flat. The FTSE has strong resistance from 8010/8080 where I will continue to be a seller with the same tight 8135 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 7780/7850 with the same 7725 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow traded in a narrow range before having a small sell-off into the close. It is frustrating the Dow is now trading 500 points lower from last Thursday’s stop. Even though I expect a rally to develop over the coming days, I just cannot justify a long position per my S&P Commentary above. I will now lower my Dow sell level to 39580/39830 with a lower 40005 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well as the market sold off to my 18200-buy level before rallying to my revised 18295 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 18060/18220 with the same 17985 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 18300.
March BUND
The Bund reversed some of Friday’s strong gains. This move lower saw my 132.60 buy level triggered. I will add to this position at 131.90 while lowering my T/P level to 133.05. I will leave my 131.25 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
My latest 2161 long Gold position worked well as the market rallied to my 2173 T/P level and I am now flat. Gold has support from 2139/2154 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 2127 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2165.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still long Silver from last week at an average rate of 24.85. I will leave my 23.65 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 25.40. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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