U.S. Equity Markets were predominantly lower on Monday with the Russell 2000 lagging its US peers but the NASDAQ also saw notable weakness amid a slide in semiconductors, although gains in Apple (AAPL) helped limit losses, but Trump’s dig at Meta (META) saw the stock tumble. S&P and Dow were flat. Bitcoin meanwhile printed a fresh record high just shy of USD 73k on further financial product euphoria after LSE confirmed they are to accept Bitcoin and Ethereum ETNs. The Treasury curve flattened with downside led by the front-end leading up to the 3 Year Auction, which ultimately saw strong demand but it was not enough to prevent the slide ahead of US CPI and the 10 Year Auction tomorrow, as well as the 30 year supply due Wednesday. The US data highlight was the NY Fed SCE, where the one-year ahead inflation expectations was unchanged at 3% but the three-year-ahead and five-year-ahead rose to 2.7% (prev. 2.4%) and 2.9% (prev. 2.5%), respectively. In FX, the Dollar saw only slight gains but the Japanese Yen was the relative G10 outperformer with all eyes on US inflation data and Japanese Wage talks for further direction. Sterling lagged, paring Friday’s strength ahead of UK labour market data this morning. Meanwhile, the Yuan saw gains after hotter-than-expected CPI data over the weekend, although PPI was beneath expectations. Oil prices were choppy on global economic data and geopolitics, with WTI ultimately flat with Brent seeing only slight gains while there is still no sign of an Israel/Hamas ceasefire as Ramadan commences. Short-term consumer inflation expectations remained low in February’s New York Fed survey, whilst the longer-term gauges bounced off multi-year lows. One-year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged at 3%, which remains the lowest since January 2021 and is nearing the series’ pre-2020 average of 2.8% (inception in 2014); the gauge never rose above 3% between August 2014 and February 2021. However, the three-year-ahead figure jumped from 2.4% (which was the lowest since March 2020) to 2.7% but remains beneath the pre-2020 series average of 2.9%. The five-year-ahead expectations, which were introduced in January 2022, jumped from 2.5% (the lowest since March 2023) to 2.9%, back to the top end of the series range of 2.00-3.00%. The Survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all horizons. Elsewhere in the survey, expected home price increases were flat in February at 3%. February expected year-ahead rent climbs at the lowest since December 2020. Consumers were more downbeat on the job market. Expected income and earnings growth were held steady. Elsewhere, both Oil and Gold closed flat.
To mark my 2950th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 147 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1039 points for March. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.11% lower at a price of 5118.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 46 points higher for a 0.12% gain at a price of 38,769.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.37% lower at a price of 17,951.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.35% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.6% lower.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 2.19% lower at a price of 38,820.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.21% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.0923.
The British Pound closed 0.3% lower at 1.2807.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.1% closing at $146.95.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 3 basis points higher at 2.30%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 9 basis points lower at 3.97%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points higher at 4.10%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.1% lower at $77.93 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.1% higher at $2183.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German CPI and U.K. Unemployment at 7.00 am. Next, we have the NFIB Business Optimism Index at 10.00 am, followed by CPI at 12.30 pm. Finally, we have a 10-Year Treasury Auction at 5.00 pm and the Monthly Budget Statement at 6.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
We are now approaching the ‘’Ides of March’’. This period has led to meaningful reversals in the past and one has to wonder given the insane equity rally over the past five months whether something nasty could be on the horizon. The four-decade long bond bull market peaked on March 9, 2020, when 10-year Treasury Yields hit an all-time low at 0.31%. On the same day, Oil prices collapsed 25% over 24 hours as Saudi Arabia opened up the spigots. A month later, WTI fell into negative territory. Finally, the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and others led the Fed to create the Bank Term Funding Programme (BTFP), reinjecting liquidity into the system. This programme shut down yesterday. Clearly, history shows that March can be rich in market reversals and other significant events. This helps to put Friday’s 11% intraday reversal in Nvidia’s share price into some context. Granted. You could ask who cares if a high flying, high volatility starts the day up 5.1% and ends the day down by over the same amount. Nevertheless, this represented a single-day swing in Market Capitalisation of some $200bn, or roughly the GDP of Hungary. The sell-off continued yesterday with Nvidia closing lower by a further 2%. The world is expecting a benign CPI print this afternoon. If, however, the opposite happens which is a strong possibility given strength of U.S. Gasoline prices over the past six weeks. When gasoline prices lead, consumer inflation often follows, then we could be in for an interesting few weeks.. Although the S&P gapped lower at yesterday’s open, buyers emerged helping the S&P to close basically unchanged. Ahead of today’s key inflation data I am not going to change my calls. Therefore, I will continue to be a buyer from 5058/5074 with the same 5043 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has strong resistance from 5152/5170 where I will continue to be a strong seller with the same 5190 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 5136. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 5090.
EUR/USD
I am still flat the Euro despite the market coming close to yesterday’s buy range before having a small rally into the New York close. Ahead of this afternoon’s CPI data, I will now lower my Euro buy level to 1.0810/1.0880 with a lower 1.0745 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.0940. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
Dollar Index
I am still flat. Today I will leave my Dollar sell level unchanged at 103.30/103.80 with the same 104.45 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the Dollar at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
No Change. The DAX new all-time highs yesterday and I am still flat. The best thing we did is staying away from this severely overpriced market. I still have no edge in the DAX at this time. The RSI is fried to the upside. I just cannot justify a long position here while I still have no interest in been short, as I prefer to sell the American Indexes. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
My FTSE plan worked well as the market traded lower to my 7620-buy level before having a nice 70-point rally. This move higher enabled me to cover this long position at my revised 7657 T/P level and I am still flat. Today, I will again be a buyer from 7570/7640 with a higher 7515 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat the Dow as yesterday’s early dip was met by aggressive buying, driving the Dow 300 points off its low into the close. The Dow has resistance from 38950/39200 where I will continue to be a strong seller with the same 39405 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well as the market traded lower to my 17880-buy level before rallying to my 17990 T/P level and I am still flat. Given how oversold both Apple and Google shares are at this time, I will continue to be a buyer of dips in the NASDAQ. The NDX has further support from 17680/17830 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 17565 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
March BUND
This morning the Bund is trading lower at 133.30. I am still flat as the Bund never came close to yesterday’s buy range, despite falling 70-points of its morning high. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 131.70/132.40 with the same 130.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold closed flat yesterday, having traded in a narrow $15 range over the past 24 hours. Ahead of the all-important CPI this afternoon, I will not chase the price of Gold higher, leaving my 2118/2134 buy level unchanged with the same wider 2099 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: I have said a number of times this year that ‘’Patience’’ is required in order to make sustained points in 2024. I am glad that I have stuck to the long side in Silver, despite been offside on my latest 24.24 average long position for the past month. This morning, Silver is trading slightly higher at 24.50. I will leave my T/P level on this position unchanged at 25.10. I will continue to hold this position with no stop. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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