U.S. Equity Markets continued the 2024 upside to see the S&P 500 futures breach above 5000 while the cash index failed to rise above the level, but it did test the psychological level. The majority of sectors were green but the heavyweight sectors, Tech, Consumer Discretionary and Communication services, all outperformed, attributing to NASDAQ 100 outperformance. Bonds were choppy, however, with T-Note peaks seen early in the American session on more NYCB woes but these eased with a new executive announcement despite the stock trading like a yoyo early on, forcing multiple stock halts. A strong 10yr auction saw some mild support but it quickly faded to see the 10yr settle with mild losses while ”Fed Speak” largely stuck to the script. In FX, the Dollar was flat while the Swiss Franc underperformed on rising sight deposits. Crude prices saw gains throughout the session on geopolitics with Israel rejecting the proposed ceasefire but there will be more negotiations on a new ceasefire proposal in Egypt on Thursday. In her first policy speech since joining the Fed board, Kugler, said that at some point, the cooling of inflation and labour markets may make it appropriate to cut rates, but if disinflation progress stalls, it may be appropriate to hold policy rate steady for longer. She did not give any further policy guidance than that in her prepared remarks but did say in her Q&A that every meeting is live. Otherwise, her speech was very similar to many of her colleagues lately, highlighting the progress on inflation whilst at the same time noting that the job is not yet done. Kugler said she sees “reasons for optimism” on services inflation, where there has been less progress. She said core-services ex-housing inflation is “still elevated” but expects improvement. She also said she is paying close attention to upside inflation risks from geopolitics. Elsewhere, Oil closed Wednesday with a gain of 1.04% while Gold closed flat.
To mark my 2925th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 40 points yesterday and is now ahead by 582 points for February after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.82% higher at a price of 4995.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 156 points higher for a 0.40% gain at a price of 38,677.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.04% higher at a price of 17,755.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.23% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.7% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.11% lower at a price of 36,119.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.15% lower.
The Euro closed 0.2% higher at $1.0774.
The British Pound closed 0.2% higher at 1.2626.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.2% closing at $148.15.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 4 basis points higher at 2.32%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 4 basis points higher at 3.99%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points higher 4.12%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.04% higher at $74.07 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.1% lower at $2034.10 an ounce.
The morning on the Economic Front we have the Euro-Zone Economic Bulletin at 9.00 am, followed by U.S. Jobless Claims at 1.30 pm. Next, we have Wholesale Inventories at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have speeches from ECB Members Elderson and Lane at 2.15 pm and 3.30 pm respectively, while Fed Member Barkin is due to speak at 5.05 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Despite the internals deep in the red as shown by the McClellan Oscillator which closed unchanged with a -54 print last night, both the S&P and NDX closed at new all-time highs. At the same time, we have two of the main technical signals that I follow deeply oversold suggesting that a large rally is imminent. I have never seen such a scenario when you have the S&P and NDX at all-time highs making it incredibly frustrating to trade. The VIX closed a further 2% lower last night at a price of 12.83. The S&P volatility is at its lowest level since 2017 with zero two-way price discovery. Given the background we have done incredibly well to have made the points we have so far this year. I am never comfortable in being short the S&P but with the 14 -Day RSI closing at 71, it is worth the risk. I am now short at an average rate of 4990 with a now higher 4981 T/P level. Meanwhile, I will leave my 5015 ”Closing Stop” unchanged. I will also be a buyer on any dip lower to 4950/4965 with a higher 4939 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 4979. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
No Change: I am still long from last Friday at an average rate of 1.0808. I will leave my 107.15 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will also leave my T/P level unchanged at 1.0835. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
My latest 104.35 average short Dollar position worked well as the market sold off to my 103.95 T/P level and I am now flat. The Dollar has strong resistance from 104.80/105.50 where I will again be an aggressive seller with a higher 106.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 104.35.
Cash DAX
As I am now long the FTSE, I will lower my DAX buy level to 16700/16790 with a lower 16595 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 16760. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with anew update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
In contrast to the American Indexes both the DAX and FTSE traded heavy having made their respective highs yesterday morning before selling off in both the European and New York closes. This move lower in the FTSE saw my initial 7630 buy level triggered. I will add to this position on any further move lower to 7560 while leaving my 7675 T/P level unchanged. I will have a 7495 ‘’Closing Stop’’ on this position. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
Although the Dow closed higher yesterday, it continues to trade below last week’s all-time high which is no surprise given the chaos in the banking stocks. The Dow has short-term support from 38250/38500. I will now raise my buy level to this area with a higher 38055 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX surged yesterday, closing at yet another new all-time high following Wednesday’s 1.1% gain. I am still flat as the market never came close to yesterday’s buy range. Given the tape I am reluctant to chase the market higher and scared to be short. The 14 Day RSI closed at 67 last night meaning there is room for a couple of more rallies before this key signal generates a sell. I will now raise my buy level to 17510/17660 with a higher 17435 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March BUND
I am still flat the Bund as the market just fell shy of yesterday’s buy range following a late sell-off into the New York close. Today, I will again lower my buy level to 132.80/133.50 with a lower 132.15 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 134.05.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat Gold as the market again traded in a narrow range. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 2000/2015 with the same 1989 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2024.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. The boring price action shows no sign of ending unfortunately. I still believe in the bull case for this precious metal. I will continue to hold my 24.40 average long position with no stop or T/P level for now. This morning, Silver is trading slightly lower at a price of 22.25. I will continue to look to add to my existing long position on any further move lower to 21.50. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Recent Comments