It was a quiet start to the week ahead of a slew of key risk events, including Bank of Japan overnight (preview below), Bank of Canada, ECB, U.S. GDP, U.S. PCE and a batch of American earnings. Nonetheless, stocks opened firmer with the S&P 500 notching a fresh record high before paring throughout the rest of the session. The majority of sectors were green with Industrials, Real Estate and Technology outperforming, while Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary and Utilities were the only sectors closing in the red. Consumer Staples’ downside was led by sharp losses in ADM after it cut guidance after announcing an investigation into accounting practices, while Consumer Discretionary was weighed on by losses in both heavyweights Amazon and Tesla. Treasuries were bid across the curve despite Fed Member Daly’s pushback on near-term rate cuts late on Friday with the upside primarily a reversal from the sharp losses seen last week, aided by a call from JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley recommending to buy five-year treasuries, which helped the ‘’belly’’ outperform. Crude prices drifted higher throughout the session with geopolitical tensions still hot in the Middle East although post-settlement Axios reported that Israel has proposed a two-month fighting pause in Gaza for the release of all hostages. The Bank of Japan will conclude its 2-day policy meeting on Tuesday where the central bank is expected to maintain its policy settings of negative rates at -0.10% as a recent poll by Reuters showed that all economists surveyed were unanimous in their view that the BoJ will not end negative rates this month. The central bank will also likely maintain QQE with YCC to flexibly target 10yr JGB yields at around 0% with a 1% upper bound reference rate for market operations and it will also release its latest Outlook Report containing board members’ median forecasts for real GDP and core CPI. Elsewhere, Oil rose 2.18% while Gold closed Monday with a 0.4% loss.
To mark my 2925th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 186 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2811 points for January. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.22% higher at a price of 4850.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 138 points higher for a 0.36% gain at a price of 38,001.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.09% higher at a price of 17,330.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.77% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.8% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1.62% higher at a price of 36,546.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.06% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.0881.
The British Pound closed 0.1% higher at 1.2708.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.1% closing at $147.98.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points lower at 2.29%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 3 basis points lower at 3.91%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 5 basis points lower 4.10%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.18% higher at $75.01 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.4% lower at $2020.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic front we have the Bank of Japan rate announcement. As I go to press no time has been given for this announcement. Next, we have the U.S. Public Sector Borrowing Requirement at 7.00 am, followed by the latest ECB Bank Lending Survey at 9.00 am. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have Euro-Zone Consumer Sentiment and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index.
Cash S&P 500
The S&P’s rally over the last few days sees the market trading outside the top of its Daily Bollinger Band. History tells us that this is not a good place to put on a long position. However, as we have seen since the October lows, liquidity trumps everything making it extremely difficult to be short for any length of time. Apart from the first few days of January 2023, short positions have been run over the past 11 weeks. The Fed have driven this monster vertical rally and will have some serious questions to answer at next week’s FOMC Meeting. Not helping matters is the width of the Fed’s Dot Plot and the market interest rate cut expectations for the rest of 2024. As we all know, new all-time highs can often beget more new all-time highs, especially if there is a legitimate break-out that sustains. But new all-time highs can also fail and reverse miserably for sizeable tops as we have seen plenty of times before. This is especially true when we have a number of negative divergences like we have now, as the broader market is not playing ball. This is a tricky market to navigate. I will have high sell levels when the RSI is overbought but overall, my strategy will be to continue to buy dips until the key Moving Averages are broken. Today, I will again raise my S&P buy level to 4812/4827 with a higher 4799 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Unfortunately, the S&P just missed Monday’s 4870 initial sell level before falling over 25 Handles. I will now raise my sell level to 4880/4896 with a higher 4912 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
No Change: I am still long the Euro from last Wednesday morning at a price of 1.0910. I will continue to look to add to this position at 1.0840 while leaving my 1.0795 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will leave my T/P unchanged at 1.0950. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update form my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
The Dollar has traded in a narrow range in seven of the last eight trading sessions. I am still flat. My only interest in selling the Dollar is still on a rally to 104.10/104.80 with the same 105.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I no longer want to be long the Dollar at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
A quiet session for European Indexes as the market waits for Thursday’s ECB Rate announcement. I will continue to be a small buyer on any further dip lower to 16400/16490 with a lower 16335 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash FTSE
My FTSE plan worked well as the market traded lower to my 7455 initial buy level before rallying to my revised 7495 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. The FTSE continues to trade heavy in narrow ranges. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 7380/7440 with a lower 7325 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow traded in a narrow 180 point range before having a late rally to close at yet another new all-time high. Given the fact that the RSI closed at 68 I have no interest as yet in pressing the downside, preferring to continue to be a dip buyer. The Dow has support from 37480/37730 where I will be a small buyer with the same 37295 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 37920. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well as the idea of selling RSI readings above 72 continues to pay dividends. The NDX hit my 17425-sell level with a 17450 high print before selling off to my 17320 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning the NDX is trading at 17360 as I go to press. Yesterday’s move higher saw the 14-Day RSI close at 73. The NDX has resistance from 17430/17570 where I will again be a seller with a higher 17705 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Despite the NASDAQ’s aggressive rally last week, I have no interest in putting on a long position at these levels. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March BUND
My latest 134.10 average long Bund position worked well as the market rallied to y revised 134.51 T/P level with a 134.65 high print and I am now flat. The Bund is still oversold even with its low Yield. We have support from 133.40/134.10 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 132.85 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat Gold. As I still long both the Euro and Silver, I will now lower my Gold buy level to 1989/2004 with a lower 1975 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I still believe in the bull case for this precious metal. I will continue to hold my 24.40 average long position with no stop or T/P level for now. This morning, Silver is trading lower at a price of 22.16. I will look to add to my existing long position on any further move lower to 21.50. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members
Recent Comments