U.S. Equities were firmer Monday with the NDX leading the S&P 500 higher gradually through the session. There was a lack of obvious catalysts, but perhaps legacy equity bear Mike Wilson (at Morgan Stanley) turning bullish on the market had an outsized effect in a quiet newsflow session, or maybe just another Santa rally. The Russell 2000, meanwhile, underperformed, as did the equal-weighted S&P. The Mag7 outperformance was led by strong gains in the likes of META, GOOGL, AMZN, and NVDA, while AAPL was a notable underperformer amid it having to halt sales of its Apple Watch. Energy was an outperforming sector with oil producers benefitting from the jump in oil prices after a slew of shipping companies halted travel via the Red Sea (preventing access to the Suez Canal) amid ongoing attacks by Yemen’s Houthis. The jump in energy prices saw Treasuries bear-steepen, although the moves were more acute in EGBs amid a more forceful pushback on market cut pricing from ECB speakers vs the recent Fed speakers. The Dollar Index was little changed with strength against the Japanese Yen ahead of the BoJ on Tuesday offset by mild gains in Swiss Franc and Euro. It is worth noting that all the Fed Speakers post-FOMC have not been willing to rule out a March cut when pressed on the issue, merely saying that it is too early to be discussing that – that probably changes if we get another month or two of improving inflation data, or even softening labour market data, with markets already pricing a March 25bp cut as a 75% likelihood. There is likely much more disagreement on the Fed, and cause for “pushback”, on the magnitude of cuts priced for 2024 – currently six 25bp cuts by December versus the Fed median of three – rather than the timing of the first cut provided the data continues to soften as it has done. Elsewhere, Oil closed 1.5% higher while Gold again closed flat following another quiet trading session.
To mark my 2900th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 192 points yesterday and is now ahead by 595 points for December after ending November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.45% higher at a price of 4740.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1 point higher for a 0.01% gain at a price of 37,306.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.64% higher at a price of 16,729.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.27% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.6% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 1.41% higher at a price of 33,219.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.02% lower.
The Euro closed 0.2% higher at $1.0914.
The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.2660.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.4% closing at $142.76.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 4 basis points higher at 2.08%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points lower at 3.67%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 7 basis points lower 3.94%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.5% higher at $72.82 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.2% higher at $2024.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the Euro-Zone CPI at 10.00 am. This is followed by U.S. Building Permits and Housing Starts at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have the Net Long-Term TIC Flows at 9.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Looking at the last 70 years of trading for the S&P, history shows that the market tends to have a wobble in the fourth year of each decade before surging in the fifth year. If this theme continues we can expect a decent correction early next year before the market makes new highs and then continues higher into 2025, once we get the Presidential election of the way next November. In my 40 years of trading markets I have never seen such a sustained off the charts RSI readings for any market like we have in the American Indexes. As I said yesterday this is la la land with the S&P RSI closing over 80. If we were not so close to Christmas I would have a large short position instead of the small short positions that I have across the board. Yesterday’s new recovery high saw the whole of my sell range triggered for a now 4739 average short position. I will leave my 4761 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level to 4722. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The Euro traded in a 30-point range in the past 24 hours. I am still flat as I continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.0740/1.0820 with the same 1.0695 ‘’ Closing Stop’’.
Dollar Index
No Change. The Dollar traded in a 15-point range yesterday. I am still long from last Wednesday at an average rate of 102.80 with the same 101.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my T/P level to 103.05. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
The DAX continues to trade heavy following last Thursday’s large Downside Reversal. This morning, the DAX is trading lower at a price of 16655 -420 points lower than Thursday morning. Finally, the 80+ RSI reading is having an effect. I am still flat the DAX. I will now lower my sell level to 16780/16900 with a lower 17005 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the DAX at this time.
Cash FTSE
The FTSE rallied to my initial 7630 sell level. I am still short with a now higher 7590 T/P level. I will add to this position at 7700 while leaving my 7755 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still short from late Friday at a price of 37280 with the same 37095 T/P level. While the RSI closed at a still unbelievable 85, internally the market was weak yesterday as shown by the McClellan Oscillator which again closed lower at +84 last night. I will add to my short position on any further move higher to 37530 with the same tight 37705 ‘’ Closing Stop’’. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Wrong! I was finally stopped out of my latest 16447 average short position on the close at 16705 last night. Today, I will again be an aggressive seller on any further rally to 16740/16890 with a higher 17005 ‘’Closing Stop’’ If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 16610.
December BUND
My Bund plan worked well as shortly after I posted yesterday morning the Bund hit my 137.40 sell level before selling off to my revised 136.74 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again be a seller from 137.30/138.10 with the same 139.05 higher wider Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 136.80. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold traded in a narrow range yesterday and I am still flat. I will not chase the price of Gold higher leaving my 1990/2005 buy level unchanged with the same 1979 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still long Silver from two weeks ago at an average price of 24.40 with the same 25.05 T/P level. This morning, Silver is trading at 23.80. I will continue to have no stop on this position. In my opinion, Silver is one of the cheapest asset classes in Global Markets at this
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